Although I still think this is Obama's race to lose. The stars couldn't be aligned more perfectly for the democrats at this point in time-but a lot can happen in the next 6 months. One thing the primary season has done is taken a lot of the shine off Obama's halo.

Yeah, this 2008 map looks pretty suspect. SC "just barely" GOP? That would put Obama on Rushmore. McCain winning Michigan and Wisconsin but not favored in Indiana sounds pretty silly. I guess we'll find out.

Ee.g. Indiana. He lists it as a tie. McCain has a 7 to 10 point lead in 4 out of the 5 polls. One poll has Obama with an 8 point lead. The Obama poll by other polling companies has McCain leading by 7 a week before and a different pollster has McCain leading by 8 a day later. Only in a country with 57 states would that be considered a tie.

Virginia and Ohio have similar questionable calls.

Hedgehog is doing something similar. He shows 297 for McCain and 241 for Obama (Hedgehog breaks ties in favor of the party who took the state in 2004).

All that said, I agree that any tea leaf reading at this stage needs a mountain of salt. But a couple things are becoming clear. One, this is not likely to be a walkover for either party. Second, the map looks a lot like 2000/2004 with both parties having pick up opportunities. So how this will be a moveable feast for us political junkies.

While I agree that at the moment Obama is the front runner in an Obama/McCain match-up, but anything can happen over the next several months. Probably not wise to start counting the chickens.