Comments on: Turnout Not All It’s Cracked Up to Be http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/turnout_not_all_its_cracked_up_to_be/ Online Journal of Politics and Foreign Affairs Thu, 26 Nov 2009 23:50:58 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: yetanotherjohn http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/turnout_not_all_its_cracked_up_to_be/comment-page-1/#comment-102535 yetanotherjohn Wed, 01 Nov 2006 21:36:25 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/11/turnout_not_all_its_cracked_up_to_be/#comment-102535 Thanks wayne. I did a quick bit of calculation and assuming you can deliver the right voters, a republican facing a 52 to 48% deficit in the polls would need to deliver 8.4% increase in their GOTV effort. To put this in perspective, using the RCP averages as of today and only using the stated preferences (i.e. throwing out the undecided): Steele needs 11.86% Talent needs 0.43% Burns needs 9.1% Kean needs 11.12% Chaffee needs 16.8% Allen needs 2.7% McGavick, DeWine and Santorum all need better than 30%. According to RCP, Corker already leads. I have no knowledge on the GOP GOTV effort other than what I read, but I would be amazed if it wasn't good enough to get the 0.43% in MO and 2.7% in VA, which would leave the senate at 51 republicans, 47 democrats and 2 independents (who will vote/caucus with the dems). If the democratic strategist 20% has any bearing (the GOP increased its vote by 22.7% in 2004 vs 2000), then the GOP loses two (Santorum and DeWine) and picks up two (Steele and Kean) for a net senate of 55 - 43- 2. Which would be highly ironic as it would have the number of 'Democrats' lower than the previous senate because of the nutroots. Maybe there is a reason why Rove is smiling. Thanks wayne.

I did a quick bit of calculation and assuming you can deliver the right voters, a republican facing a 52 to 48% deficit in the polls would need to deliver 8.4% increase in their GOTV effort.

To put this in perspective, using the RCP averages as of today and only using the stated preferences (i.e. throwing out the undecided):

Steele needs 11.86%
Talent needs 0.43%
Burns needs 9.1%
Kean needs 11.12%
Chaffee needs 16.8%
Allen needs 2.7%
McGavick, DeWine and Santorum all need better than 30%.
According to RCP, Corker already leads.

I have no knowledge on the GOP GOTV effort other than what I read, but I would be amazed if it wasn't good enough to get the 0.43% in MO and 2.7% in VA, which would leave the senate at 51 republicans, 47 democrats and 2 independents (who will vote/caucus with the dems).

If the democratic strategist 20% has any bearing (the GOP increased its vote by 22.7% in 2004 vs 2000), then the GOP loses two (Santorum and DeWine) and picks up two (Steele and Kean) for a net senate of 55 - 43- 2. Which would be highly ironic as it would have the number of 'Democrats' lower than the previous senate because of the nutroots.

Maybe there is a reason why Rove is smiling.

]]> By: Wayne http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/turnout_not_all_its_cracked_up_to_be/comment-page-1/#comment-102515 Wayne Wed, 01 Nov 2006 19:08:38 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/11/turnout_not_all_its_cracked_up_to_be/#comment-102515 YAJ You beat me to the punch again. Which is o.k, you tend to be more articulating then I anyway. YAJ
You beat me to the punch again. Which is o.k, you tend to be more articulating then I anyway.

]]> By: yetanotherjohn http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/turnout_not_all_its_cracked_up_to_be/comment-page-1/#comment-102476 yetanotherjohn Wed, 01 Nov 2006 16:09:36 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/11/turnout_not_all_its_cracked_up_to_be/#comment-102476 What I find humorous about this is that Mellman is continuing the Democratic practice of identifying people by their group identity and not as individuals. So he sees the GOP blindly trying to get more white protestants to the polls, not individuals who will support the republican candidate. To put it another way, taking the same 52-48 otherwise race, if the GOP can get 20% more of their supporters to the polls, the race flips to 52.6% GOP, 47.4% dem. This reminds me of 2004 where the democrats felt that the GOP support was maxed out in 2000. So if they could deliver another 8 or 9 million votes, they would win. They did and the GOP delivered another 11 to 12 million to the polls. The GOP GOTV effort does not guarantee this election by any stretch of the imagination, but it will be interesting to understand the 'likely voter' screen in the polls in context of the GOTV effort. We shall see what we shall see. What I find humorous about this is that Mellman is continuing the Democratic practice of identifying people by their group identity and not as individuals. So he sees the GOP blindly trying to get more white protestants to the polls, not individuals who will support the republican candidate.

To put it another way, taking the same 52-48 otherwise race, if the GOP can get 20% more of their supporters to the polls, the race flips to 52.6% GOP, 47.4% dem.

This reminds me of 2004 where the democrats felt that the GOP support was maxed out in 2000. So if they could deliver another 8 or 9 million votes, they would win. They did and the GOP delivered another 11 to 12 million to the polls.

The GOP GOTV effort does not guarantee this election by any stretch of the imagination, but it will be interesting to understand the 'likely voter' screen in the polls in context of the GOTV effort. We shall see what we shall see.

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