Unstable Global System
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James Joyner | Wednesday, March 1, 2006 |
John Robb applies some engineering principles to the global environment and argues that,
If we look at today’s global environment we see a moderately unstable system. Our global interconnectivity has outpaced our ability to dampen excess. It is a relatively high performance system that is increasingly controlled by global markets. The old dampening functions of borders, distance, government, etc are quickly fading. The problem is that this is a system that can quickly reach for excess whenever rogue feedback is introduced. Worse, there are people actively working on ways to introduce this rogue feedback. The long-term solution to this, is to both build more stability into the system (decentralization) and to create dynamic market-places for security that will aid us in quickly dampening rogue feedback. Unfortunately, we are far from realizing that goal, since our current view of the world is based on old models.
[...]
This conclusion also calls into question the efficacy of the idea that merely increasing connectivity is an answer to our problems. Increasing connectivity too fast, in a system without intrinsic dampening or control systems that work, will only accelerate the chaos (human nature doesn’t change as fast as technology).
Not all change is good and even good changes can have bad unintended consequences in the short term. The shift from feudalism to capitalism, from agrarian to industrial to information-based economies, from Communism to democracy and the free market, and other massive changes came with a price. We’re still paying some of it, in fact.
In the longer term, this instability may lead to creative destruction and the rise of a much better model in the Middle East and elsewhere. Then again, a wise philosopher once said that, in the long run, we’re all dead.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
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Then again, a wise philosopher once said that, in the long run, we're all dead.
Is that a philosophy we should be keyne about?
:P
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