Comments on: Veteran MP Defects from Tony Blair’s Party http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/veteran_mp_ddefects_from_tony_blairs_party/ Online Journal of Politics and Foreign Affairs Thu, 26 Nov 2009 16:09:33 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: kenny http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/veteran_mp_ddefects_from_tony_blairs_party/comment-page-1/#comment-43930 kenny Tue, 26 Apr 2005 21:36:07 +0000 /?p=10226#comment-43930 Because if Sedgemore's views are indicative of the mood of the backbenchers (and especially the pre-1997 intake) ,and if Labour doesn't win a huge majority in the election then Blair is a dead duck politically speaking. In 97 blair won despite much of the party and he gained their gratitude for turning out the tories. However at the moment Labour is ahead of the polls in spite of Blair's unpopularity and a PM that's perceived as an electoral liability tend not to last long in UK politics. (see Thatcher, M.) If Labour get a majority of less than 60-70 it's difficult to see how Blair would survive the year. Under a 100 and he'll continue as PM probably only as long as Gordon Brown wants him to. (opinion polls suggest labours lead would be around 20% if brown was leading the party) Because if Sedgemore's views are indicative of the mood of the backbenchers (and especially the pre-1997 intake) ,and if Labour doesn't win a huge majority in the election then Blair is a dead duck politically speaking.

In 97 blair won despite much of the party and he gained their gratitude for turning out the tories. However at the moment Labour is ahead of the polls in spite of Blair's unpopularity and a PM that's perceived as an electoral liability tend not to last long in UK politics. (see Thatcher, M.)

If Labour get a majority of less than 60-70 it's difficult to see how Blair would survive the year. Under a 100 and he'll continue as PM probably only as long as Gordon Brown wants him to. (opinion polls suggest labours lead would be around 20% if brown was leading the party)

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