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	<title>Comments on: Was There a Housing Bubble?</title>
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		<title>By: Abq</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/was_there_a_housing_bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-282978</link>
		<dc:creator>Abq</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 Feb 2008 18:20:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/02/was_tthere_a_housing_bubble/#comment-282978</guid>
		<description>When the home price is going up at much higher rate than building cost or real income, it is certainly a bubble. Government tried to stop the burst with historic low interest rate but that just fueled into the bubble. When you can fit all the people in whole world in Texas and still not get the density of NYC or many popular city and hear that we are running out of land, then it was actually a bubble. Asking price for a land in a good area has gone down 50% in just a year. That is in sunny low-crime San Diego neighborhood with great schools. Reports from Florida would be the same. Unrealistic expectations and biased information created the bubble. Unfortunately newspapers were a part of it. And it is funny now they claim its all bloggers fault. The propaganda machine of NAR, brokers, main-stream media, every other home-owner, TV programs like &quot;Flip this house&quot;.. could not stop couple of bloggers.. Thats funny.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When the home price is going up at much higher rate than building cost or real income, it is certainly a bubble. Government tried to stop the burst with historic low interest rate but that just fueled into the bubble. When you can fit all the people in whole world in Texas and still not get the density of NYC or many popular city and hear that we are running out of land, then it was actually a bubble. Asking price for a land in a good area has gone down 50% in just a year. That is in sunny low-crime San Diego neighborhood with great schools. Reports from Florida would be the same. Unrealistic expectations and biased information created the bubble. Unfortunately newspapers were a part of it. And it is funny now they claim its all bloggers fault. The propaganda machine of NAR, brokers, main-stream media, every other home-owner, TV programs like "Flip this house".. could not stop couple of bloggers.. Thats funny.</p>
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		<title>By: James Joyner</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/was_there_a_housing_bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-281697</link>
		<dc:creator>James Joyner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Feb 2008 14:21:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/02/was_tthere_a_housing_bubble/#comment-281697</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;is still a bit tautological --- it is only a bubble if it bursts&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Until it bursts, it&#039;s a speculative bubble.  Just as two quarters of negative growth isn&#039;t a recession until it is.  Or, accumulated rain isn&#039;t a flood until it reaches some depth or strong winds aren&#039;t a hurricane until they reach a certain speed.  

Sometimes, unprecedented growth isn&#039;t a sign of impending catastrophe.  For example, a Dow basis of 1000 seemed wildly optimistic in 1980 and anything under 10,000 is now disaster.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>is still a bit tautological --- it is only a bubble if it bursts</p></blockquote>
<p>Until it bursts, it's a speculative bubble.  Just as two quarters of negative growth isn't a recession until it is.  Or, accumulated rain isn't a flood until it reaches some depth or strong winds aren't a hurricane until they reach a certain speed.  </p>
<p>Sometimes, unprecedented growth isn't a sign of impending catastrophe.  For example, a Dow basis of 1000 seemed wildly optimistic in 1980 and anything under 10,000 is now disaster.</p>
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		<title>By: fester</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/was_there_a_housing_bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-281685</link>
		<dc:creator>fester</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Feb 2008 13:48:43 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>James --- once again you prove you are an adept, insightful analyst of trends :)

You&#039;re argument makes a bit more sense now that we are inserting &#039;bursting&#039; into the sentence, but it is still a bit tautological --- it is only a bubble if it bursts and not is parabolic growth rates typical of a mature asset category and are deviations of three, four and five standard deviations from previous trend relationships with otherwise reliable proxies explainable by anything other than &#039;new paradigm&#039; talk?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>James --- once again you prove you are an adept, insightful analyst of trends :)</p>
<p>You're argument makes a bit more sense now that we are inserting 'bursting' into the sentence, but it is still a bit tautological --- it is only a bubble if it bursts and not is parabolic growth rates typical of a mature asset category and are deviations of three, four and five standard deviations from previous trend relationships with otherwise reliable proxies explainable by anything other than 'new paradigm' talk?</p>
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		<title>By: carl</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/was_there_a_housing_bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-281364</link>
		<dc:creator>carl</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Feb 2008 00:33:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/02/was_tthere_a_housing_bubble/#comment-281364</guid>
		<description>Take it from us here in south florida.  This bubble will certainly burst!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Take it from us here in south florida.  This bubble will certainly burst!</p>
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		<title>By: James Joyner</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/was_there_a_housing_bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-281235</link>
		<dc:creator>James Joyner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Feb 2008 20:48:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/02/was_tthere_a_housing_bubble/#comment-281235</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Maybe you forgot to type &#039;bursting&#039; of the bubble in your argument, but the bubble was co-occurring with generationally low interest rates and massive amounts of media cheerleading&lt;/blockquote&gt;

True enough. Still, it&#039;s only a &quot;bubble&quot; if it bursts; otherwise, it&#039;s merely &quot;growth.&quot;  Look at some of the &quot;Related Articles&quot; above -- there were WaPo and NYT gloom and doom stories two or three years ago on this.

UPDATE:  OTB&#039;s first &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2004/04/the_housing_bubble/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Housing Bubble&lt;/a&gt; post was in April 2004.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Maybe you forgot to type 'bursting' of the bubble in your argument, but the bubble was co-occurring with generationally low interest rates and massive amounts of media cheerleading</p></blockquote>
<p>True enough. Still, it's only a "bubble" if it bursts; otherwise, it's merely "growth."  Look at some of the "Related Articles" above -- there were WaPo and NYT gloom and doom stories two or three years ago on this.</p>
<p>UPDATE:  OTB's first <a href="http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2004/04/the_housing_bubble/" rel="nofollow">Housing Bubble</a> post was in April 2004.</p>
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		<title>By: fester</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/was_there_a_housing_bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-281230</link>
		<dc:creator>fester</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Feb 2008 20:24:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/02/was_tthere_a_housing_bubble/#comment-281230</guid>
		<description>James --- I&#039;m a little puzzled by your argument that  &quot;it was a self-fulfilling prophecy largely created by years of “housing bubble is coming” prophecy and a Fed trying to cure irrational exuberance by jacking up interest rates.&quot;

Try finding a prominent, non-Krugman, non-Dean Baker columnist who had an audience of at least 10,000 eyeballs a week in 2003/2004 saying that there was an imminent housing bubble. I don&#039;t think you are going to find that individual.  You&#039;ll find a couple of bloggers who were saying &#039;something funky is going on here&#039; in 2003/2004 but Calculated Risk, the biggest housing blogger today is still not widely read except for info and finance junkies.  

Maybe you forgot to type &#039;bursting&#039; of the bubble in your argument, but the bubble was co-occurring with generationally low interest rates and massive amounts of media cheerleading, and every idiot can be a multi-millionaire house flipper seminar selling a &#039;new paradigm&#039; of &#039;housing only goes up&#039;

The supply of greater fools ran out and that is what caused the bubble to burst.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>James --- I'm a little puzzled by your argument that  "it was a self-fulfilling prophecy largely created by years of “housing bubble is coming” prophecy and a Fed trying to cure irrational exuberance by jacking up interest rates."</p>
<p>Try finding a prominent, non-Krugman, non-Dean Baker columnist who had an audience of at least 10,000 eyeballs a week in 2003/2004 saying that there was an imminent housing bubble. I don't think you are going to find that individual.  You'll find a couple of bloggers who were saying 'something funky is going on here' in 2003/2004 but Calculated Risk, the biggest housing blogger today is still not widely read except for info and finance junkies.  </p>
<p>Maybe you forgot to type 'bursting' of the bubble in your argument, but the bubble was co-occurring with generationally low interest rates and massive amounts of media cheerleading, and every idiot can be a multi-millionaire house flipper seminar selling a 'new paradigm' of 'housing only goes up'</p>
<p>The supply of greater fools ran out and that is what caused the bubble to burst.</p>
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		<title>By: yetanotherjohn</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/was_there_a_housing_bubble/comment-page-1/#comment-281226</link>
		<dc:creator>yetanotherjohn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Feb 2008 20:12:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/02/was_tthere_a_housing_bubble/#comment-281226</guid>
		<description>Well this is local to Seattle, but it would explain at least part of the new equilibrium.

&lt;a href=&quot;http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2004181704_eicher14.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Between 1989 and 2006, the median inflation-adjusted price of a Seattle house rose from $221,000 to $447,800. Fully $200,000 of that increase was the result of land-use regulations, says Theo Eicher — twice the financial impact that regulation has had on other major U.S. cities.&lt;/a&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well this is local to Seattle, but it would explain at least part of the new equilibrium.</p>
<p><a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2004181704_eicher14.html" rel="nofollow">Between 1989 and 2006, the median inflation-adjusted price of a Seattle house rose from $221,000 to $447,800. Fully $200,000 of that increase was the result of land-use regulations, says Theo Eicher — twice the financial impact that regulation has had on other major U.S. cities.</a></p>
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