Both men are sufficiently plugged-in that they have a pretty good idea of any real numbers. Which means that both men likely know the truth. So one of them is trying to steal the election. I think that's pretty close to a certainty.

Based on what I've seen so far that person is Ahmadinejad. I think the weight of the evidence is heavily on Moussavi's side.

Outside of the ruling junta, everyone in Iran is calling it a stolen election. Are we really to take one poll and some wishful thinking over that?

How do you come by that number?

In December 10 & 11, of 1978, millions of Iranians protested the Shah in parades and demonstrations all across Iran. The exact numbers are debated (btw/ 3 & 9 million in a country just over 30 million), but it was the largest mass demonstration in history and led the Shah to seek to resign under the best terms he could negotiate.

All of which avoids the fact that when you've won 2/3rds of the vote you don't have to launch a crackdown in the first place.

The '79 revolution was the largest popular revolt in history with 11% of Iranians. This doesn't appear to be anywhere near that size, and it doesn't at all seem unusual, even going back to the Shah's regime.

Nor should I add is Mousavi the first disgruntled candidate to complain that the game is rigged. He'll likely end up with the rest on the French riviera or somewhere.

Color me skeptical, too.

And I. Skeptical, in fact, underplays the reality, but it'll do for now.

The poll shows, three weeks ago, 34% for Ahmadnejad, 14% for Mousavi, but a 27% Don't Know. The poll report itself predicts a runoff, meaning that neither of the two leading candidates was expected, given the poll results, to garner over 50% of the vote.

I'm more interested in weather or not this will ultimately weaken the government or if a resulting crack down will make them more difficult to deal with. I'd like to see more analysis/speculation on this front, though it seems to early for much more than a simple guess.