What Will the Economic Recovery Look Like
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Steve Verdon | Friday, March 20, 2009 |
And yet another interesting post by James Hamilton on what we might expect the recovery to look like. I’d recommend reading the whole thing.
About the Author: Steve has a B.A. in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles and attended graduate school at The George Washington University, leaving school shortly before staring work on his dissertation when his first child was born. He works in the energy industry and prior to that worked at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Division of Price Index and Number Research.
- What Will the Economic Recovery Look Like
- About that Robust Recovery
- Are We in a Recession? Probably
- James Hamilton on the AIG Bonuses
- James Hamilton on the 2008 Oil Shock
- A Little Too Much Credulity
- What’s That Got to Do With the Price of Oil in China?
- Newspapers Writing for Selves, Not Readers?
- A Fool and His Money….
- Manly Thoughts
- Nathalie Blanchard Facebook Smile Leaves Her Depressed
- Glenn Beck, Community Organizer
- OTB Latenight – Cherry Poppin’ Daddies
- Hacked Climate Scientists Emails Reveal Truth
- Obama, the Recession, and Polls
- Giuliani Running for Senate, Not Governor
- OTB Latenight – The Jesus & Mary Chain
- Fox Fake Crowd Videos
- Congress to Investigate Fake Districts
- Douthat Blogging Again
Someone told me once: "Do you know what your problem is? You are an optimist who thinks he is a pessimist."
That was funny, but I worry that it might be true in times like these.
As the dollar dives in value, the price of gasoline will rise. And the dollar will dive; BIG TIME. So I think that will continue to depress consumers.
There is a very compelling model, called the Gold Volatility Model, at http://www.supplysideforum.com. The correlation between forecast and actual Personal Consumption Expenditures has proven impressive. The actual paper is available for study. Look at its forecast for PCE by May and June.
Hot Damn! I've been searching for something that would give me some idea of what a 'recovery' might look like & start from.
The first is the fact that gas prices are about $2/gallon lower than they were last spring, which has freed $280 billion for consumers to save or spend on other things.
That's a pretty important factor - we'll have to see what consumers do with that extra $$ this summer, if they're not spending it on gas. Here in Idaho, the Statehouse just resoundingly trashed the Gov's 'brilliant' idea to raise money for the state by upping the gas tax by 90%... now I have an actual reference to describe how insanely stupid and counterproductive that would have been...
