*source... pure conjecture, observation and common sense.

Take a look at the census data - workers who work in "Precision, Production, Craft, and Repair Occupations" aka "The Trades" have seen their inflation adjusted income stangnate since 1982.

Those in "Managerial and Professional Speciality Occupations" have seen their incomes rise significantly.

http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/histinc/p45.html

I think if you look at the data, the idea that the trades are doing well just isn't borne out by the facts.

I'm not saying that there aren't guys in the trades making 100k, I'm saying that over the past 30 years the income gap has grown between those in the trades and those with a college education.

Do you think that isn't the case?

Some degrees don't have the big a return, others do.

I think the real question isn't why more aren't going but whether college is the right route to meet their interests and goals. In the town I live in, the plumber makes almost 100k a year, because he is one of the only ones in the area.

We are friends with a guy who runs a car shop, and he struggles to find qualified mechanics. At his shop a fully qualified mechanic makes more per year than a certified teacher with a few years experience under their belts makes in this area.

Supply and demand has a lot to do with just how much salary a person can command.

Salary of Senior Accountant $58,559

Salary of Master Plumber $48,440

Now, the interesting question would be to find out the average salary of a Senior Accountant vs. Master Plumber in 2008, 1998, 1988, 1978, 1968. Now, if we see a growing gap between the two would that change your mind?

BTW; don't forget my caveat. [The type of degree]

At the same time, the No Child Left Unmatriculated program swung the pendulum way too far and colleges reacted by increasing the price to what the market would bear. Now the bear is biting back. It would have cost as much as I paid to buy my house (which is far from paid off) to send my daughter to one particular state school she was considering. That's a problem.

But all the evidence is that a diploma is far more valuable than it used to be.

Perhaps because that's not what the evidence says. What the evidence says is that some diplomas are worth a lot more than they used to be. The evidence doesn't demonstrate that all diplomas are worth more than they used to be nor does it demonstrate that the diplomas are worth more are worth more because they are diplomas.

Perhaps a diploma is no longer the "ticket" to secure lucrative employment that it once was.

But all the evidence is that a diploma is far more valuable than it used to be. However, for some reason, people don't want to accept that.

I think we need to look at the marginal case. Back in the day if you partied through High School and eventually dropped out and took a job at the plant, you could make X. If you studied and worked hard and made it through High School and College you could make 2X. Now, that is up to 4X or 6X. However, at the margin, the guy who could, with perhapse 10% more effort, get a degree, still won't work that extra 10%.

Perhaps a diploma is no longer the "ticket" to secure lucrative employment that it once was.
The non-college worker gets a four year head start in Career development without the accumulation of debt associated with formal education. Even an associates degree allows for a two year head start at a fraction of the debt.

Medicine and engineering are examples of a valid use of "higher education". Seeking other degrees [in areas like "liberal arts"] has been slipping ever closer to a frivolous use of "higher education" in recent years.