If that statement is really true then we should all be VERY worried for the CIA is now deciding US foreign policy. Bush, like him or not, IS the elected prez and he makes that policy call.

This does mean Bush won't be bombing Iran over its nuc program. Lets hope he now decides to get extremely aggressive about Iran's supplying EFPs and weapons/training to Iraqi insurgents. The focus on nuc program meant a measured approach to targeting Iranian networks within Iraq. Now the gloves should come off around destroying the networks and weapons shipments. Those ARE costing US soldiers their lives so its past time for giving Iran "a hard shoulder" on that.

Bolton said that the report was shared with the intelligence committees last week and that the main finding - that they stopped in 2003-was not indluded.

Well, considering that ADM McConnell discussed it with Bush back in August, I'd feel comfortable calling bullshit on this. Exactly what position does he hold that gives him credible access to that information, anyway? He hasn't been a formal employee of the gov't since last December - he flat-out doesn't know what he's talking about.

The real story behind this NIE is that the Bush Administration has finally concluded Iran is a bridge too far.

This statement strikes me as being either deliberately stupid or tragically insane. It's been widely reported that the final form of this NIE has been locked-in since at least early October, and the basic conclusions have been known in higher circles for about a year now. Yet Cheney and his fellow Neocons have continued to trumpet the "Iran is a smoking mushroom cloud threat" through it all. Furthermore, Bush's own statements after the release of the NIE continue to follow that same path. This is not the administration's conclusion, but rather reality rearing its ugly head & Bush being forced, slowly, to deal with it.

Unless you are conspiracy minded and think Bush wants to bomb Iran for no reason

Given that he invaded Iraq for no reason, you'd need to be catatonic not to think it.

I'd guess Sy Hersh has it about right- for the past year the gap between what the intelligence agencies were discovering and the Bush Admin rhetoric on Iran has been widening at an alarming rate. Bush's 'world war three' statement was probably the last straw and the push back against an out of control and irresponsible administration has finally begun.

Steve may not see a problem with the new estimate, but for a majority in the country it once again underlines the dishonesty of the man and his allies.

When it comes to threat assessments I would prefer an overestimation. It is the prudent way of doing things.

I find it funny how so many are spinning this as bad for the administration. It is neither bad nor good. It is simply the way it is. Intelligence changes and leaders react to those changes. Unless you are conspiracy minded and think Bush wants to bomb Iran for no reason rather than Bush seeing it as a necessity for our security why would anyone consider this a defeat for the President?

We’re just incredibly inept at predicting the future.

If only it were the future! Our intelligence community has been rotten at characterizing the present realistically. Despite the enormous resources poured into information gathering on the Soviet Union for decades our intelligence community systematically overestimated Soviet capabilities over a period of 50 years.

The overestimation didn't reduce tensions or carnage. But it did create the proxy system whose echoes are still visible in current policy.