Comments on: Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates on Tuesday? http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/will_the_fed_cut_interest_rates_on_tuesday/ Online Journal of Politics and Foreign Affairs Fri, 27 Nov 2009 01:10:12 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Steve Verdon http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/will_the_fed_cut_interest_rates_on_tuesday/comment-page-1/#comment-512985 Steve Verdon Mon, 15 Sep 2008 18:22:41 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=25181#comment-512985 <blockquote>Of course, futures markets don't really predict anything, but they reflect what traders are expecting/hoping for.</blockquote> I disagree. In markets with a large enough number of participants it could be the biases/hopes, etc. can be offsetting leading to a reasonable expectation/predictor of future events. Of course, this assumes that market participants are not making systematic errors. It is that last part where we get into trouble.

Of course, futures markets don't really predict anything, but they reflect what traders are expecting/hoping for.

I disagree. In markets with a large enough number of participants it could be the biases/hopes, etc. can be offsetting leading to a reasonable expectation/predictor of future events. Of course, this assumes that market participants are not making systematic errors. It is that last part where we get into trouble.

]]> By: rawdawgbuffalo http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/will_the_fed_cut_interest_rates_on_tuesday/comment-page-1/#comment-512969 rawdawgbuffalo Mon, 15 Sep 2008 17:31:55 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=25181#comment-512969 Damn <a href='http://rawdawgb.blogspot.com/2008/03/my-2-cents-really-1107127.html' rel="nofollow"> Christopher cox, MBSs </a>and the desire to make 19 investment houses more important than me, the common man Damn Christopher cox, MBSs and the desire to make 19 investment houses more important than me, the common man

]]> By: Jeffrey W. Baker http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/will_the_fed_cut_interest_rates_on_tuesday/comment-page-1/#comment-512967 Jeffrey W. Baker Mon, 15 Sep 2008 17:28:27 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=25181#comment-512967 Futures markets are priced for 50% odds on a rate cut tomorrow. Last Friday, futures prices were for odds of less than 10%. Of course, futures markets don't really predict anything, but they reflect what traders are expecting/hoping for. Futures markets are priced for 50% odds on a rate cut tomorrow. Last Friday, futures prices were for odds of less than 10%. Of course, futures markets don't really predict anything, but they reflect what traders are expecting/hoping for.

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