And it’s not circular reasoning if you look closely. I state the Saudis may be the only _oil producer_ able to manipulate pump prices, but they’re not the only _entity_ that can. Hamilton’s article takes apart Woodward’s statement that the Saudis were responsible for gas price drops, and I’m agreeing, albeit for a different reason - That the Saudis are hardly the only ones capable of causing a price drop.

Okay, so now the new variant is that it is going to be the refiners. Nevermind things like seasonality...that the price for gasoline tends to drop from summer highs practically every single fall (barring some other factor). Further, that factors such as demand also play into it as well. If the economy is slowing or people expect it too slow they might cut back on various expenditures where they can. Given all the posts about how the economy is probably going to slow...you'll simply ignore this.

Here in Idaho, while the rest of the country’s gas prices dropped to sub-$2.50 at the end of the summer, ours stayed up around $2.90-$3.

They are also still very high here in California as well. When a region doesn't drop like the rest of the country isn't very surprising given the various local/state rules/regulations on gasoline.

The only reason is that there’s only one or two sources for getting gas into the state. After a while, “dropping gas price” stories started to hit the national news, and Idahoans started saying “what dropping gas prices?”. The State AG started making investigatory noises, and “magically”, the price of gas has fallen literally $.50 per gallon in the last 3 weeks. No Saudi intervention required…

Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

And it's not circular reasoning if you look closely. I state the Saudis may be the only _oil producer_ able to manipulate pump prices, but they're not the only _entity_ that can. Hamilton's article takes apart Woodward's statement that the Saudis were responsible for gas price drops, and I'm agreeing, albeit for a different reason - That the Saudis are hardly the only ones capable of causing a price drop.

Here in Idaho, while the rest of the country's gas prices dropped to sub-$2.50 at the end of the summer, ours stayed up around $2.90-$3. The only reason is that there's only one or two sources for getting gas into the state. After a while, "dropping gas price" stories started to hit the national news, and Idahoans started saying "what dropping gas prices?". The State AG started making investigatory noises, and "magically", the price of gas has fallen literally $.50 per gallon in the last 3 weeks. No Saudi intervention required...

The price of oil is dropping like POTUS's approval because of three (well, two if you want to split hairs lump Wall Street) reasons: the two (Goldman Sachs & nixed oil speculating) mentioned above and that the mix in your behemoth of steel that passes for a family vehicle changed to a dirtier, winter blend of oil.

Saudi production has dropped not because of the all powerful Darth Rove, but because Ghawar hit peak production about a month and a half ago. It ain't that the handholder-in-chief's buddy Abdullah is doing a favor, it's that there's no there there.

Or is that too conspiratorial for you guys?

I am losing what little mind I have......

Is it possible that the the above should read
"If a larger production cut would have been necessary to keep the price from falling,.....

Weren't some of the hijackers from Saudi?

Enjoy.

Another nail in Cocktober’s coffin: everyone’s had the Foley emails since June. [Harpers] Duke Cunningham breaks out the crayons, scrawls letter to San Diego Union-Tribune. [TPMMuckracker] Fox News is preparing to serve their new masters. [...

The Saudis could have, and they may be the only oil producer with the ability to tweak their output that much (I don’t actually know, but I’ll accept it for this discussion), but they’re not the only entity able to manipulate the pump price that much.

You are assuming what you are trying to demonstrate. Boring logic types like to call this circular reasoning. Besides, in 2004, the price decline for the elections was non-existent. In fact, prices were rising all through September heading into the 2004 election.

I know, I know...there I go looking at the data again and not pondering woulda, coulda, and shoulda.

If (for the purposes if this discussion) the Saudis wanted to affect gas prices, the gas refiners could either increase that effect or delay the increases at the pumps until after the elections, as they saw fit. Again, I don't have any evidence any of this actually happened; I'm oly pointing out that the Saudis aren't the only potential agents here.

You want conspiracy theory, start wondering about what's really in those energy council-oil company meeting minutes Cheney won't let out to the public. Muahahahaha....

The Saudis in fact could have (and have) manipulated prices of oil.

So is this going to be the new conspiracy, they could have done it. Nevermind that the concensus seems to be that the Saudis have reached peak production for the near term at least.

Legion,

The reason why the price goes up at the pump almost immediately is that there is (relatively) less gasoline then there was initially. Hence existing stocks become more valuable. Same goes in the opposite direction.

As for human nature & greed vs. supply and demand, what precisely do you think is behind supply and demand if not human nature and greed?

I agree with Steve's conclusion in this case, but his dismissive argument is bullshit. The Saudis in fact could have (and have) manipulated prices of oil.