So, certainly, Walter would agree that the Iraqi mess is unlikely to solve itself. If the EU and the UN aren’t going to step in anytime soon — and they’re not — that pretty much means the US and NATO. Which, in any case, essentially means the US (NATO isn’t going to do it without the US providing the lion’s share of the manpower).

This is exactly why we need to strike Iran immediately.

We can leave enough troops in Iraq to maintain our dominance, but move the extras over to Iran.

If we control BOTH Iran and Iraq, all of the internal hulabaloo will quickly subside.

They certainly have in specific locales.

Not in Iraq.

Sunni's and Shiite's have been fighting bloody civil wars for 1400 years and neither has been wiped out.

They certainly have in specific locales.

I think what he's saying is that without a third party to keep the peace these civil wars rage on until one side is basically wiped out/flees.

Sunni's and Shiite's have been fighting bloody civil wars for 1400 years and neither has been wiped out.

In order to do this, Mr. Walter seems to be saying that an occupying foreign police must be present to enforce a settlement. That sounds a little like modern imperialistic paternalism to me. I was taking history back a ways further and would submit that these civil wars have their own ecologies that have developed over a long period of time. And basically they become settled when people quit killing each other at least for the time being. Sometime with formal agreements between sides sometimes not.

I think what he's saying is that without a third party to keep the peace these civil wars rage on until one side is basically wiped out/flees.

Instead of US North vs. US South, think US vs. the native americans.

Between 1940 and 1990, enemies in civil wars have almost always failed to reach successful negotiated solutions to their conflicts unless an outside power guaranteed their safety during the ensuing transition period.

In order to do this, Mr. Walter seems to be saying that an occupying foreign police must be present to enforce a settlement. That sounds a little like modern imperialistic paternalism to me. I was taking history back a ways further and would submit that these civil wars have their own ecologies that have developed over a long period of time. And basically they become settled when people quit killing each other at least for the time being. Sometime with formal agreements between sides sometimes not.

One of the things learned over the last 60 years is that peace settlements in civil wars only work when backed by a third party willing to enforce the terms and to protect the weaker side from exploitation.

[...]

Between 1940 and 1990, enemies in civil wars have almost always failed to reach successful negotiated solutions to their conflicts unless an outside power guaranteed their safety during the ensuing transition period. I argue that civil war opponents avoid negotiated settlements because this requires them to relinquish important fall-back defenses at a time when no neutral police force and no legitimate government exist to help them enforce the peace. Knowing they will enter a period of intense vulnerability, neither side can credibly commit to an agreement that becomes less attractive once implemented. Evidence from forty-one civil wars between 1940 and 1990 shows that civil war adversaries do, in fact, require the added reassurance of outside security guarantees before they willfully implement peace treaties. This suggests that resolving the underlying issues over which civil wars are fought is not enough to bring peace to war-torn states. Both short-term security guarantees and long-term institutional arrangements seem necessary to ensure stable and durable settlements.

So, certainly, Walter would agree that the Iraqi mess is unlikely to solve itself.

These folks have been fighting civil wars for thousands of years and have settled everyone of them to date. What makes you think they can't settle the one in Iraq? It may not be to our liking with all that oil at stake, but to say an outside power must help flies in the face of history.

1. Never get involved in a foreign civil war.
2. If you ignore rule #1, choose a side.
3. Make sure your side wins.