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BUSH’S CHANCES

Howard Fineman details nine reasons why Bush is now an odds-on favorite for re-election. The edited version:

I have never seen a president more popular with his own party base.

Because of population and geographical changes, Bush picks up a net seven Electoral College votes in a re-run of 2000

Dean has some 550,000 names on its email list. “BC04″ has 10 million.

Presidents tend to win re-election in war time.

If you’re an incumbent, you have a better than 2-1 chance of winning re-election.

[We got] Saddam.

Howard Dean or not, the Democrats, for the most part, are simply cratering in the South.

The war in Iraq has only begun to divide the Democrats. It will divide them further the closer they get to the general election.

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About James Joyner
James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. Follow James on Twitter.

Comments

  1. Heh. If they nominate Dean, and the majority of registered Democrats votes for Bush because of his anti-war rhetoric (preserved for posterity in campaign ads), will the party finally get the picture?

    No. I honestly don’t think they will.

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  2. Paul says:

    Dean has some 550,000 names on its email list. “BC04″ has 10 million.

    Yowie Batman!

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  3. John Lemon says:

    Wow! Howie figured this out pretty quick, and apparently all by himself. He must be a pretty good reporter or something!

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  4. John Lemon says:

    Wow! Howie figured this out pretty quick … and all by himself! He must be a real good reporter!!!

    And as for BC04, I’m not familiar with this particular name or abbreviation even though I am a congressional district captain. In just a few minutes, Howie can say “4 million + 1.”

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  5. PoliBlog says:

    Listless
    Yep, it’s true, there’s been no “Today’s List” for two days running. Nothing has really struck my fancy. However, Hpward Fineman has a list of reasons that Bush is in good shape for re-election, so check that out. Hat tip:…

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  6. PoliBlog says:

    Toast-O-Meter (12/20 Edition)
    The Toast-o-meter: A Weekly News Round-Up and Handicapping of the Race for the Democratic Nomination. -Toast: It’s not Just for Breakfast Anymore!- The Toast-O-Meter comes to you Fortified with linkage and Enhanced with bloggage! The scale: Wonder Bre…

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