Caption Contest

Dodd | Wednesday, July 2, 2008

James asked me to fill in for the estimable Mr. Dill and handle the OTB Caption Contest^TM during his vacation. This being an area in which I have some experience, I was only too happy to accept.

So, take aim at this:

REUTERS/Steven Shi (CHINA)

Winners will be announced Saturday PM

Tags | Contests, Dodd Harris

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North Korea To Be Removed From State Sponsors of Terrorism List

Dodd | Thursday, June 26, 2008

North Korea gave China the long awaited accounting of its nuclear activities, as agreed in the six-party talks. In return, the US will delist NK as a state sponsor of terrorism and lift some trade sanctions:

The United States on Thursday welcomed a long-delayed North Korean account of its shadowy nuclear activities and said it would act to remove North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism.

[...]

“North Korea has pledged to disable all its nuclear facilities and tomorrow will destroy the cooling tower of the Yongbyon reactor,” a White House statement said. The White House said the United States would respond by lifting sanctions on North Korea under the “Trading with the Enemy Act” and would also begin steps to remove Pyongyang from the U.S. blacklist of countries it considers sponsors of terrorism.

Of course, we’ve been rolled by NK before. But it would appear that the Administration’s long, persistent insistence on six-party talks rather than bilateral negotiations has yielded something worthwhile. China’s long term willingness to police the accord and ensure that its client state abides by it is the big question.

Tags | Dodd Harris North Korea

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OTB Radio - Tonight at 7 Eastern

James Joyner | Wednesday, June 18, 2008

The next episode of OTB Radio, our BlogTalkRadio program, will record and air live tonight from 7-8 Eastern.

Dave Schuler and Dodd Harris (and possibly Alex Knapp and/or Steve Verdon) will be joining me tonight to talk about the AP “Fair Use” brouhaha, oil prices, candidate tax policies, and whatever else we meander into along the way.

Please join us. We’ll also be taking your calls at (646) 716-7030.

You can play the show, subscribe to its feed, or share it with your friends via the widget below:

(Note: The playback automatically updates to the most recent show available. Older shows can be accessed at the show archives.)

Tags | Dave Schuler, Dodd Harris, James Joyner Media Appearances

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Clinton Going After Obama Superdelegates

James Joyner | Monday, June 2, 2008

Hillary Clinton continues to provide ample evidence that she has no intention of going quietly into that good night.

As Barack Obama turns to concentrate on his general election challenge, his rival Hillary Rodham Clinton is mounting a last ditch campaign to stay relevant in what is left of the Democratic presidential contest.

The former first lady enters this week with an insurgent strategy not only to win over undecided superdelegates but to peel away Obama’s support from those party leaders and elected officials who already have committed to back him for the nomination.

“One thing about superdelegates is that they can change their minds,” she told reporters aboard her campaign plane Sunday night.

This is true. After all, plenty of former Hillary superdelegates are now “committed” to Obama. It’s unfathomable to me that she’ll peel off many — if any — officials at this stage of the game with her lame “I’ve won more popular votes if you don’t count caucuses but do count beauty contests and non-states” argument. But I continue to believe that she’s going to fight on to the bitter end.

UPDATE (Dodd): Clinton Summons Top Donors, Supporters For Tuesday Speech:

Hillary Clinton has summoned top donors and backers to attend her New York speech tomorrow night in an unusual move that is being widely interpreted to mean she plans to suspend her campaign and endorse Barack Obama.

Obama and Clinton spoke Sunday night and agreed that their staffs should begin negotiations over post-primary activities, according to reliable sources. In addition to seeking Obama’s help in raising money to pay off some $20 million-plus in debts, Clinton is known to want Obama to assist black officials who endorsed her and who are now taking constituent heat, including, in some cases, primary challenges from pro-Obama politicians

I’ll believe it when I see it. And what, exactly, does it mean to “suspend” one’s campaign. Isn’t that the word Romney used, too? Is that the face-saving way of dropping out now?

Tags | Campaign 2008, Dodd Harris, James Joyner Hillary Clinton

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Rasmussen: McConnell Behind In Kentucky

Dodd | Tuesday, May 27, 2008

“Wow.” That’s Matthew Yglesias’ first reaction to a Rasmussen poll that shows just-nominated Democrat Bruce Lunsford leading Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell here in Kentucky. He goes on to say that, “you kind of figure that McConnell will probably pull this one out, but it’s a real sign of how desperate the Republican situation is.”

Commenter Mark Byron counters that this poll was taken two days after a hard fought primary race in which Lunsford and his opponent were, as he cleverly put it, “Mitch-slapping McConnell pretty good” while McConnell ran, for all practical purposes, unopposed.

Mr. Byron has the right of it, I think. According to Rasmussen:

John McCain leads Barack Obama by twenty-five percentage points. However, just 67% of McCain voters currently plan to vote for McConnell. Twenty-eight percent (28%) of McCain voters say they will split the ticket and vote for Lunsford.

The piece goes on to note, however, that McConnell still commands a net +10% favourability rating and that it “is not unusual for the number of ticket-splitters to decline dramatically as Election Day approaches.”

Meanwhile, McConnell’s campaign released an internal poll today that shows him with a double-digit lead (50-39; MoE +/-4%). It also notes that the campaign’s polls have only 59% of Democrats who supported Lunsford’s primary opponent Greg Fischer voting for their party’s nominee with a quarter saying they’ll be supporting McConnell in November. Obviously, one takes internal polls with a grain of salt — and a good many of these voters will also return to the fold come November. Nevertheless, this jibes well with what my liberal acquaintances are saying: Lunsford is deeply unpopular with many partisan Democrats in Kentucky.

Which brings us to the last point, only obliquely addressed by the sources above. Mitch McConnell is a master campaigner and Lunsford has a great many weaknesses that Fisher was not able to adequately exploit. For instance, Rasmussen has Lunsford leading by 15 points amongst voters who rate the economy as their primary issue. Ads targetting the fact that Vencor, Inc., one of his former companies, went bankrupt, costing a lot of people a lot of money while he came out of it very wealthy, will surely put a dent in that number. As a friend of mine who knows McConnell and his campaign staff well put it when I asked him about the poll this morning, “There’s a lot of ground to plow, and McConnell is a much better farmer than Greg Fischer.”

It goes without saying that the Democrats would dearly love to do a Daschle on Mitch. But, likely as not, McConnell will be fine come November. That said, it’s also likely that this race — coming as it does in a down year for Republicans generally — will be a good deal closer than he’s become accustomed to.

Tags | Campaign 2008, Dodd Harris

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Democrat Buyers’ Remorse: Already Here?

Dodd | Monday, May 26, 2008

A couple of weeks ago on OTB Radio, I suggested that there’s a very real chance that, come October or so, the Democrats will have a bad bout of buyers’ remorse. Paul Lukasiak, guest posting on left-wing talk radio host Taylor Marsh’s blog, says that the real lesson of Hillary!’s primary performances the last several weeks is that they already do:

Ever since the media declared that Barack Obama was “inevitable” after February 19th, based on a two week period when the an unprepared Hillary Clinton campaign suffered “10 straight losses”, rank and file Democratic voters have been sending a message. Rather than rally ‘round the “inevitable nominee” that message has been a consistent, loud, and clear message to the Democratic Party – DO NOT WANT.

In nearly every demographic category since February 19, Clinton percentage of the vote has risen, while Obama’s has fallen. This includes Obama’s supposed “strong” demographic categories such as voters with college degrees post-graduate degrees and voters whose income is above the national median. And Clinton beat Obama in the primaries in March, April and May in most of the major categories.

[...]

McCain may not have been the choice of the majority of Republicans, but once he was declared the “inevitable nominee”, rank and file Republicans closed ranks behind McCain. … But Democratic voters refused to accept the pronouncements of the pundits and “analysts”, and have voted in overwhelming numbers in support of Hillary Clinton.

Lukasiak then cites some trends that should give even the most ardent Obama supporter pause:

Once voters realized that Obama would be the nominee, his support within most demographic categories declined, and declined significantly in most cases. Obama’s support declined overall by 2.3%

* Obama’s support among men declined by 2%,
* Obama’s support declined among women by 1.2%,
* Obama’s support declined among White voters by 4.8%,
* Obama’s support declined among Hispanic/Latino voters by 3.2%,
* Obama’s support declined among White males by 6.7%, and
* Obama’s support declined among White females by 3.6%.

Clinton’s overall support, on the other hand, increased by 4.7%

* Clinton’s support increased among Males by 6.0%,
* Clinton’s support increased among Females by 3.1%,
* Clinton’s support increased among White voters by 6.2%,
* Clinton’s support increased among Hispanic/Latino voters by 2.6%,
* Clinton’s support increased among White males by 10.8%, and
* Clinton’s support increased among White females by 6.0%.

He concludes by noting that, while “Obama did manage to increase his support among African Americans overall by 5.4%… the impact of those changes is small.”

Thus, Obama’s net increase in support among African American voters represents only 1.8% of the Democratic electorate, while Clinton’s net increase in support from White voters represents 8.4% of the Democratic primary electorate. Clinton’s overall net increase of 6.7% of the primary electorate is a clear sign that ‘buyers remorse’ has set in.

Of course, most of the primary voters now telling the party that they don’t want Obama will rally to him once he’s officially nominated. But this is most certainly among the arguments Hillary!’s campaign is making to the superdelegates.

Tags | Campaign 2008, Dodd Harris Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton

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OTB Radio - Tonight at 7 Eastern

James Joyner | Wednesday, May 21, 2008

The next episode of OTB Radio, our BlogTalkRadio program, will record and air live tonight from 7-8 Eastern.

Dave Schuler, Dodd Harris, and Alex Knapp will be joining me tonight to talk about yesterday’s primaries, the degree to which McCain and Obama’s policies differ (with an especial emphasis on Iran), bad laws, and whatever else comes up.

Please join us. We’ll also be taking your calls at (646) 716-7030.

You can play the show, subscribe to its feed, or share it with your friends via the widget below:

(Note: The playback automatically updates to the most recent show available. Older shows can be accessed at the show archives.)

Tags | Alex Knapp, Dave Schuler, Dodd Harris, James Joyner

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NFL Owners Opt Out Of Labour Deal

Dodd | Wednesday, May 21, 2008

The NFL owners voted unanimously to opt out of the current labour agreement with the players in 2010 rather 2013. If the parties don’t agree to a new deal, we would see the first season with no salary cap since 1993.

Both Upshaw and commissioner Roger Goodell were reasonably optimistic that an agreement could be reached before the start of the 2010 free-agent season, presumably in March of that year. If there is none, that would be the first season without a salary cap since the year after the 1993 labor contract was signed, ending more than a half-decade without labor strife.

[NFL Players Association executive director Gene] Upshaw suggested that once the cap went away, the union would never let one back. [Commissioner Roger] Goodell suggested that might be rhetoric — that the owners weren’t worried about playing without a cap and that some system would be put in place that could work.

[...]

There are, in fact, incentives to prevent even an uncapped season.

There are suggestions that the richer teams such as Washington and Dallas would spend millions on top free agents and build all-star teams.

On the other hand, the contract extends the length of time for free agency in an uncapped year from four years to six and allows teams to protect one extra player with franchise or transition tags. In addition, the two-year lag would allow many teams to extend the contracts of their most important players, maintaining the continuity that is important to winning teams.

[...]

The debate will continue in negotiations and through the media over a course of months and years. Both conceded there might be no agreement until the deadline, which Upshaw suggested might not happen until the winter of 2010. So did Goodell.

“We’d like to get things done,” Goodell said. “But often it’s not until you have a deadline that people realize the consequences of not reaching a deal.” Upshaw added: “March of 2010—that’s what we see as the realistic deadline. I’m not going to sell the players on a cap again. Once we go through the cap, why should we agree to it again?”

Obviously the owners know more than I do, but this seems like quite a gamble to me. The salary cap has been a significant contributor to the rapid growth of the NFL’s popularity in the last 15 years. But this has been coming for a while; owners pay ~60% of revenue to players even with the cap. But Upshaw doesn’t want a salary cap and he doesn’t want to limit rookie salaries, either, leaving one to wonder whether the players are willing to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.

Tags | Dodd Harris NFL

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Kentucky and Oregon Primary Predictions

James Joyner | Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Today’s Democratic primaries in Kentucky and Oregon provide something akin to a rematch of the recent Indiana-North Carolina pairing. Hillary Clinton should easily win Kentucky, where Barack Obama hasn’t even bothered to campaign, and Obama should take Oregon.

The Polls

The latest RealClearPolitics average has Clinton up a whopping 29 points in Kentucky and Obama up a comfortable 12 in Oregon. A strange thing, though, about Oregon: the polls are all over the place.

ARG, which has it as a 5 point race — and a 4 percent margin of error — has done well predicting margins and turnout in recent contests. Their internals:

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 57% to 39% among men (48% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 51% to 44%.

Obama leads 51% to 44% among white voters (88% of likely Democratic primary voters). Clinton leads 50% to 46% among Hispanic voters (6% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Obama leads 55% to 38% among voters age 18 to 49 (49% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 52% to 45% among voters age 50 and older.

Clinton and Obama are tied at 49% each among voters saying they have returned their ballots (58% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Obama leads 52% to 40% among voters saying they will definitely return their ballots by May 20th.

20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

Prediction

Clinton will win Kentucky by even more than the 29 point average margin. Call it 73-26.

Oregon will be interesting. Obama is ahead in every single poll but his demographics are slightly softer. I’d still guess he’ll take it by something like 10 points. Call it 55-45.

Impact

If things go more-or-less according to script, Obama will be the night’s winner. He’ll almost certainly go over the 50 percent mark in pledged delegates, further enhancing the perception that he’s the presumptive nominee. (Clinton, meanwhile, claims to have passed 300 Electoral Votes and thus won, easily. Someone forgot to tell her that the Electoral College is for the general election, not the primaries.)

The only way it gets interesting is if Clinton wins Oregon. While highly unlikely, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. There are two polls which have her within the margin of error and she’s leading among the more reliable older voters. If she somehow pulls it off, she’ll get some buzz and strengthen her argument to the superdelegates that she’s the stronger candidate.

But she has to win. Even coming very, very close won’t be enough.

UPDATE (Dodd): Hillary Clinton should easily win Kentucky, where Barack Obama hasn’t even bothered to campaign….

I keep hearing this and I presume it’s because that’s the pre-match spin Obama’s campaign’s been putting out to diminish the significance of his expected loss here. But it’s patently false. Obama himself was here in Louisville last week for a standing room only rally (10,000 got in, hundreds more were turned away). He has an office here in what used to be the county Democrat Party HQ (and before that was my favourite coffee shop - that corner’s really gone downhill). His campaign is definitely canvassing heavily. And, even though I don’t watch that much television, I’ve been seeing quite a lot of his TV ads for the last 2-3 weeks (by contrast, I have not seen a single one for Hillary!).

Tags | Campaign 2008, Dodd Harris, James Joyner, Public Opinion Polls Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton

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Huckabee Shoots Himself In The Foot With His Mouth

Dodd | Friday, May 16, 2008

Mike Huckabee proves once again that he’s not the sharpest knife in the drawer:

During a speech before the National Rifle Association convention Friday afternoon in Louisville, Kentucky, former Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee — who has endorsed presumptive GOP nominee John McCain — joked that an unexpected offstage noise was Democrat Barack Obama looking to avoid a gunman.

“That was Barack Obama, he just tripped off a chair, he’s getting ready to speak,” said the former Arkansas governor, to audience laughter. “Somebody aimed a gun at him and he dove for the floor.”

I think it’s fairly safe to say that the odds on McCain picking Huckabee as his VP candidate just became a whole lot slimmer.

UPDATE (James Joyner): A lame attempt at humor. My guess is that the Huckster was channeling this Eddie Murphy sketch from 25 years ago:

Tags | Campaign 2008, Dodd Harris Mike Huckabee

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Lunch With Instapundit

Dodd | Friday, May 16, 2008

I just had a lunch with Glenn Reynolds, who was in town to speak to the NRA Convention about Heller. We discussed such things as local politics, the high amusement value of the Democrat Presidential primary, Joss Whedon returning to Fox, and the fact that while the overall quality of movies is declining there are actually more TV shows we want to watch now than there used to be.

He also reiterated a rather important point from his talk: The gun rights crowd seems to be pretty content these days (in no small part because they anticipate a positive result in Heller), and Hillary! and Obama would both like to convince us they’re not gun grabbers, but the gun rights crowd should not just assume this election doesn’t much matter. Even if Heller is everything we hope for, we’ll still be litigating the scope of the right for quite some time - and the types of Supreme Court Justices either Democrat will appoint are not likely to be friendly to the Standard Model.

All in all a most enjoyable time. I feel for him, though, as this was his first visit to my fair town and Mother Nature didn’t do her part to make it as pleasant as it usually is in mid-May.

Tags | Blogosphere, Dodd Harris, Guns, Law and the Courts

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California Supreme Court Strikes Down Gay Marriage Ban

Dodd | Thursday, May 15, 2008

The California Supreme Court has overturned the state’s ban on gay marriage in a 4-3 decision:

The California Supreme Court ruled today that same-sex couples should be permitted to marry, rejecting state marriage laws as discriminatory.

[...]

The long-awaited court opinion, written by Chief Justice Ronald M. George, stemmed from San Francisco’s highly publicized same-sex weddings, which in 2004 helped spur a conservative backlash in a presidential election year and a national dialogue over gay rights.

The dissenters preferred to leave the matter up to the legislature and the voters (November ballot initiative would add the ban to the Constitution).

Apparently my memory is faulty, as I thought I voted ‘Nay’ on a California Constitutional amendment years ago. A quick check today confirmed that that initiative simply defined marriage as between a man and a woman. So, absent a Constitutional ban, the state Supreme Court was free to strike down the existing statutory ban.

Tags | Dodd Harris, Gender Issues, Law and the Courts, US Politics

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OTB Radio - Tonight at 7 Eastern

James Joyner | Wednesday, May 14, 2008

The next episode of OTB Radio, our BlogTalkRadio program, will record and air live tonight from 7-8 Eastern.

Dave Schuler and Dodd Harris will be joining me tonight to talk about the impact of yesterday’s West Virginia primaries, the possibility of buyer’s remorse come November, and various other topics.

Please join us. We’ll also be taking your calls at (646) 716-7030.

You can play the show, subscribe to its feed, or share it with your friends via the widget below:

(Note: The playback automatically updates to the most recent show available. Older shows can be accessed at the show archives.)

Tags | Dave Schuler, Dodd Harris Media Appearances

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Those Who Can’t….

Dodd | Thursday, April 24, 2008

Despite being rejected by GOP primary voters as their Presidential candidate, Mike Huckabee thinks they might buy his book about his failed candidacy and “offering his vision for remodeling the conservative movement.” The book will be released two weeks after the November election and offer both anecdotes from his Presidential bid and his notions about the future of American politics and how to reunify the Republican Party.

I’d say that whether or not elevating Huckabee and his ideas to more prominence in GOP politics would serve that function depends on whether one believes the party would regroup well after massive electoral defeat.

Tags | Dodd Harris Mike Huckabee

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