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Trump the Presumptive Nominee (Some of What I got Wrong)

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In case anyone noticed: I got the Trump nomination wrong.

Today in “Unclear on the Concept”

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The subject in question is prison with the persons who are unclear being the Bundys (via TPM):  Shocker: Bundy Bros Discover That Jail Inmates Have Fewer Freedoms Ryan Bundy wrote in the document that “my rights are being violated. My right to life is being violated. All of my First Amendment rights are being violated. […]

Plagiarism Plague in Russia

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Via Slate:  The Craziest Black Market in Russia.  Apparently, a lot of Russians are paying for dissertations: In the past few years alone, there have been credible allegations of dissertation plagiarism made against Russia’s minister of culture, the governor of St. Petersburg, and the head of the country’s top federal investigating authority. Just in the past […]

The Horror of War and the Challenge of Peace in Colombia

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If Colombia makes peace, the post-conflict era will be rife with challenges.

Twitter War between Head of OAS and President of Venezuela

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This is amazing, amusing, and very Twenty-First Century, via the BBC:  Venezuela Maduro OAS: Latin American ‘traitor’ row escalates The head of the Organization of American States (OAS), Luis Almagro, has accused the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro of being “a traitor”. In a series of Twitter posts addressed directly to Mr Maduro, Mr Almagro also […]

Nomination Fight for the Libertarians?

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Via WaPo:  Libertarian Party faces a nomination fight in a #NeverTrump world Gary Johnson, the former governor of New Mexico and 2012 Libertarian Party nominee for president, may have found his moment. The Democratic and Republican parties are set to nominate deeply unpopular candidates. His Libertarian Party has seen enrollment surge all year, with more than […]

From the “You can’t Make this Stuff up” File (Trump’s ex-Butler edition)

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Via the BBC:  Donald Trump’s ex-butler calls for Obama to be killed Anthony Senecal wrote in a Facebook post that Mr Obama “should have been taken out by our military and shot as an enemy agent in his first term”. Mr Senecal worked for Mr Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, for nearly 30 […]

Moore Suspended, Faces Removal from Office

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Via AL.com: Roy Moore suspended from office: Alabama chief justice faces removal over gay marriage stance For the second time in his career, Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore faces charges before the Alabama Court of the Judiciary and potential removal from office. Until that court hears and rules on those charges, Moore will be suspended with […]

Same Sex Marriage in Colombia

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Via the BBC: Colombia legalises gay marriage Colombia’s top court has legalised same-sex marriage, making the country the fourth in Latin America to do so. Civil unions had previous been legal. The rest of the region:   Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay have previously legalised same-sex marriage. […] In Mexico, gay marriage is legal in the capital […]

Boehner on Cruz

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Via The Stanford Daily:  John Boehner talks election, time in office When specifically asked his opinions on Ted Cruz, Boehner made a face, drawing laughter from the crowd. “Lucifer in the flesh,” the former speaker said. “I have Democrat friends and Republican friends. I get along with almost everyone, but I have never worked with a […]

Money Never Sleeps?

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It looks like some of the big GOP bucks may be taking a bit of a snooze, via Politico:  Sheldon Adelson and top GOP donors retreat to the sidelines While some in the room spoke in favor of Cruz, others expressed reservations about his prospects in the general election. Trump, meanwhile, had little support: Not […]

Partisanship and Race

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Here is another column (American Anger: It’s Not the Economy. It’s the Other Party) in the long list of trying to figure out what is going on in American politics these days.  The thesis is that the problem is partisan sorting and that that sorting strongly correlates to view on race: The increasing alignment between party […]

Talking Heads, Troy University Style (Elections Edition)

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Some election chit-chat from campus television:  

Hamilton on SCOTUS Nominations

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Worth a read over at the Monkey Cage:  Here’s what Alexander Hamilton can teach senators about Supreme Court nominations. Take a dive into The Federalist Papers.

Strategy and the Garland Nomination

Merrick Garland Supreme Court Nomination

George Will’s column on the Garland nomination sparks a few thoughts.

Primary Turnout does not Predict November Outcomes

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Primary turnout is not predictive of general election outcomes.

The Depressing Reading List

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Some happy articles for your perusal: Via the Guardian:  Trump supporters in St Louis: how ‘midwestern nice’ became a sea of rage Via Salon:  Trump’s not Hitler, he’s Mussolini: How GOP anti-intellectualism created a modern fascist movement in America Via The Atlantic:  Make America White Again? (Donald Trump’s language is eerily similar to the 1920s Ku Klux Klan—hypernationalistic and […]

Explaining the Trump Candidacy?

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To me one of the major questions of this campaign season is:  why is Trump running?  It is a question to which I wonder if we will ever have an adequate answer.   On one level, for example, I can’t imagine Trump wanting to actually be the president.  Further, I can’t decipher any policy motive for […]

Trump’s Offensive Defense

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Trump is doing the opposite of trying to calm things down.

Least Shocking News of the Day: Hispanics don’t Like Trump

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Via Gallup:  Trump Has a Major Image Problem With Hispanics And it goes well beyond party affiliation: Hispanics tilt Democratic, with 50% identifying as Democratic or leaning Democratic in the Jan. 2-March 8 period, contrasted with 23% who identify as Republican or who lean Republican. Trump’s negative image, however, is not merely a result of […]

With Defenses Like These, Who Needs Accusations?

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Via Hitfix: Bill Cosby’s TV son charges media with double standard: ‘Roman Polanski is still celebrated’ “You just look at just how the media is playing this whole thing out, and I can’t help but think about Woody Allen, Roman Polanski, [Seventh Heaven star] Stephen Collins, who it’s very clear, you know, the crime they’ve committed,” […]

A Reminder about the US Muslim Population

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Via Pew Research: Pew Research Center estimates that there were about 3.3 million Muslims of all ages living in the United States in 2015. This means that Muslims made up about 1% of the total U.S. population (about 322 million people in 2015), and we estimate that that share will double by 2050. […] According […]

Placing Trump in Comparative Perspective

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I would highly recommend the following from Pippa Norris:  It’s not just Trump. Authoritarian populism is rising across the West. Here’s why.  (Norris is an expert on comparative politics and elections). It is a long piece (for a newspaper column/blog post), but is worth a read.  Not to encourage skipping the essay, I will post […]

A Photo for Friday

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After a hiatus, the photo returns:   “Lanterns” February 15, 2016 Pike Road, AL

The New GOP Shuffle? (or, Dancing around Trump and Islam)

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So, there is this (via CNN):  Donald Trump: ‘I think Islam hates us’ Donald Trump said Wednesday that he thinks “Islam hates us,” drawing little distinction between the religion and radical Islamic terrorism. “I think Islam hates us,” Trump told CNN’s Anderson Cooper, deploring the “tremendous hatred” that he said partly defined the religion. He […]

Some Thoughts on Grades

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More accurately, some thoughts on commentary about higher ed.

Yet More Evidence of our Broken Immigration System

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Via the LAT:  This judge says toddlers can defend themselves in immigration court On Friday, the ACLU posted a transcript of the deposition in that case in which Weil asserted that toddlers can represent themselves in his court. “Are you aware of any experts in child psychology or comparable experts who agree with the assessment that […]

Internal GOP Politics and the Trump Problem

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The NYT has a long, but worthwhile piece on the internal difficulties that the Republican Party is having to face as the Trump nomination comes closer to irrevocable reality:  Inside the Republican Party’s Desperate Mission to Stop Donald Trump. I highly recommend it.  As I keep noting to friends, the GOP’s current situation is quite fascinating from […]

Clinton and the African-American Vote

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Like I was saying… 84% of black voters went for Clinton and 16% went for Sanders (CNN exit poll). In other words, despite the Cable News Horserace Hoopla,TM the Democratic side of the equation is going as expected, and will be, as I predicted before New Hampshire over this week:  ”I remain convinced that by the […]

Huntsman, Trump, and the Limitations of a Two Party System

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All of which leads to a discussion of electoral rules.

Trump and the KKK

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Via NPR: Trump Won’t Condemn KKK, Says He ‘Knows Nothing About White Supremacists’ The following is from a Trump appearance on CNN: Trump: I don’t know what group you’re talking about. You wouldn’t want me to condemn a group that I know nothing about. … If you would send me a list of the groups, I […]

Kasich Staying in

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Via The Columbus Dispatch:  Ohio Politics Now: Kasich resists calls to drop out of race, comes in 5th in Nevada Ohio Gov. John Kasich continues to ignore calls to drop out of the presidential race saying in Georgia Tuesday, “I would hope they would be clearing the decks for me. I’ve spent the least amount of […]

More on the Clinton/Sanders and Democratic Demographics

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Via NBC News:  Clinton Lead Over Sanders Among Latino Voters Rapidly Narrowing among Hispanic voters, what had been a two-to-one or better Clinton lead for the past six months has narrowed dramatically in the two weeks following the Iowa Caucuses. Where our surveys had shown Clinton leading by 20 percentages points or better during December […]

Hottest January on Record

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Via the DMN:  Phil Plait: Last month was the hottest January on record — by a lot. January 2016 was the hottest January globally since records began in 1880. And it didn’t just edge out the previous record holder for January, it destroyed it.

If you Want to Feel Better about our Presidential Candidates…

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…read up on Peru’s options:  An Alleged Killer, a Plagiarist, and a Jailed Ex-Leader’s Kid: Meet Peru’s Presidential Field. As I tell my students:  one of the great reasons for studying Latin America is that you really can’t make this stuff up.

A Primer on the Brexit Debate

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Via The Economist: A background guide to “Brexit” from the European Union

SC Polls and the Racial Dimensions of the Democratic Contest

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To provide some new data in support of my post Clinton v. Sanders: Some Key Numbers, here are some numbers from a new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll from South Carolina: In the current poll, Sanders leads Clinton among white Democrats, 51 percent to 46 percent. But Clinton crushes him among African Americans in the state, 68 percent […]

Obama to Visit Cuba

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The futility of US policy towards Cuba is obvious to anyone who gives it even a passingly objective assessment.

Rules Matter Yet Again: SCOTUS Strategizing

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Dare I say: hate the game, not the players?

JPL’s “Visions of the Future”

Quite cool:  click.

Some History Regarding SCOTUS Nominations

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The NYT provides the following:  Supreme Court Nominees Considered in Election Years Are Usually Confirmed Since 1900, the Senate has voted on eight Supreme Court nominees during an election year. Six were confirmed. But several of those were for seats that had become vacant in the previous year. Along with the factoid, there is a very useful […]

Fiorina: Out

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Via CNN:  Carly Fiorina ends presidential bid.

Oh, Those Undecideds…

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The final CNN/WMUR polls states that 31% of New Hampshire Republicans have not yet decided for whom they will vote today (and only 46% have “definitely decided.”  As such, if there are “surprises” tonight it won’t be because the polling failed, it will be because you can’t measure opinions that don’t exist when the questions […]

The Pre-New Hampshire Post

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Observations, questions, and some toastosity.

Group Plans Giant Battle Flag Display Across from Historically Black College in Downtown Montgomery, AL

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Via the Montgomery Advertiser:  Groups plan Confederate monument, large flag across from ASU Members of three Confederate groups are planning to erect a monument featuring a large Confederate flag in front of Alabama State University, the nation’s oldest state-sponsored historically black college, the Tallassee Tribune reported on Wednesday. According to the Tribune, leaders of the […]

Clinton v. Sanders: Some Key Numbers

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Despite media narratives to the contrary, I do not see this as a truly competitive contest.

More Winnowing

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So, the Democratic pool is down to two, with Martin O’Malley out.  Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee is out on the Republican side.  Neither makes much of a mathematical difference.  I would expect a more serious set of exits after New Hampshire when several dead men walking come to gripes with reality.

Line of the Day (Iowa and Trump Edition)

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“For the first time in the 2016 race, the conventional rules of politics applied to Donald Trump.” (CNN)

Candidate Positions on Immigration

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This piece from NPR has a very useful chart that outlines the various candidates’ views on immigration reform:  Where The 2016 Candidates Stand On Immigration, In One Chart (h/t:  the FB feed of Alan Cross).

How the Iowa Caucuses Work (with Lego Minifigs)

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With a tip of the hat to occasional OTB contributor Chris Lawrence.

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