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The Pre-New Hampshire Post

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Observations, questions, and some toastosity.

Group Plans Giant Battle Flag Display Across from Historically Black College in Downtown Montgomery, AL

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Via the Montgomery Advertiser:  Groups plan Confederate monument, large flag across from ASU Members of three Confederate groups are planning to erect a monument featuring a large Confederate flag in front of Alabama State University, the nation’s oldest state-sponsored historically black college, the Tallassee Tribune reported on Wednesday. According to the Tribune, leaders of the […]

Clinton v. Sanders: Some Key Numbers

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Despite media narratives to the contrary, I do not see this as a truly competitive contest.

More Winnowing

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So, the Democratic pool is down to two, with Martin O’Malley out.  Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee is out on the Republican side.  Neither makes much of a mathematical difference.  I would expect a more serious set of exits after New Hampshire when several dead men walking come to gripes with reality.

Line of the Day (Iowa and Trump Edition)

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“For the first time in the 2016 race, the conventional rules of politics applied to Donald Trump.” (CNN)

Candidate Positions on Immigration

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This piece from NPR has a very useful chart that outlines the various candidates’ views on immigration reform:  Where The 2016 Candidates Stand On Immigration, In One Chart (h/t:  the FB feed of Alan Cross).

How the Iowa Caucuses Work (with Lego Minifigs)

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With a tip of the hat to occasional OTB contributor Chris Lawrence.

A Visual History of IA and NH

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A nifty chart from NPR:

Trump’s Strength and his Weakness

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Anyone paying attention at this point knows that the main basis of Trump’s support comes from whites with less than a college education.   This is a strength is helping him in the GOP primary, but will be huge handicap in the general election should he actually win the nomination. This is all well laid […]

Trump and Latino Republicans?

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One poll says he is doing well with Latino Republicans (via the NY Post): Despite his controversial comments about Mexican immigrants, GOP frontrunner Donald Trump is the favorite among Latino Republicans, according to new polling results revealed to The Post. Thirty eight percent favor Trump, followed by Cuban American Ted Cruz (15 percent), Jeb Bush (14 […]

Finally: Voting on the Horizon

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Some thoughts and questions as we finally hit the start of the process. (And the return of the Toast-o-Meter)

Headline of the Day

“Stalin May Have Studied Mao’s Poop in a Secret Lab.“

Happy Blogiversary

A happy ten year blogiversary to Greg Weeks and his blog Two Weeks Notice! Greg is Professor and Chair of Political Science at UNC Charlotte and blogs mainly on Latin American politics at his site.

Trump and the Social Conservatives

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Politics makes strange bedfellows, but come on.

Some Cruzian Chutzpah

This struck me this morning listening to Weekend Edition: Behind the scenes, Heidi Cruz has been busily fundraising for her husband for months. She took a leave of absence from the investment firm Goldman Sachs to work on the campaign. That connection has been a source of criticism for Ted Cruz, who was elected to the […]

A Photo for Friday (on Saturday)

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Well, so much for getting a month into the year without for forgetting a Friday.  At any rate, this seems an appropriately themed image for the season: “Confused Democracy” June 20, 2011 Pike Road, AL

Iowa: Polling 8 Days Out

An interesting historical comparison from Past Frontrunners:

A Photo for Friday

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To cheer up all our readers about to be hit by a blizzard (and those who aren’t), a yin and yang photo of cute, furry otters: “Otters!” January 2, 2009 Montgomery, AL

Wherein I Agree with Trump

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Via ABC:   Donald Trump Ramps up Attacks on Ted Cruz, Says ‘He’s a Nasty Guy’.

Clinton Calls for More Sanctions on Iran

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Via The Hill:  Clinton calls for new sanctions on Iran Hours after the U.S. dropped sanctions on Iran as part of the nuclear deal, Democratic primary front-runner Hillary Clinton called for new sanctions on the nation for its ballistic missile program. Clinton on Saturday praised President Obama for securing the safe return of four U.S. citizens […]

Guatemala Inaugurates President

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Via the BBC:  Jimmy Morales inaugurated as new Guatemala president Guatemalan former TV comedian Jimmy Morales has been inaugurated as the country’s new president. He was elected in October after huge anti-corruption demonstrations that led to the prosecution of a former president and vice-president. Mr Morales has no previous experience in government. In his inaugural […]

Economic Crisis Continues in Venezuela

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Via the BBC:  Venezuela economy: Nicolas Maduro declares emergency The Venezuelan government has announced a 60-day economic emergency to deal with the country’s worsening crisis. President Nicolas Maduro will govern by decree for two months. The edict includes tax increases and puts emergency measures in place to pay for welfare services and food imports. The […]

Drug Lord Chic?

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Via the BBC:  ‘El Chapo’: LA company cashes in on drug lord’s shirt A US shirt maker says its shirts are flying off the shelves after Mexican drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman was pictured wearing one. The distinctive patterned blue and grey number is seen in a picture of Guzman shaking hands with US […]

Iran Frees US Prisoners

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Via the BBC:  Jason Rezaian and three other US prisoners freed in Iran Iran has released Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian and three other Iranian-American prisoners as it anticipates the lifting of international sanctions. Rezaian, 39, was convicted of espionage in Iran last year. Iranian state TV named the other three as Saeed Abedini, Amir […]

Taiwan Elects First Female President

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Via the BBC:  Tsai Ing-wen elected Taiwan’s first female president Tsai Ing-wen has been elected Taiwan’s first female president. Ms Tsai, 59, leads the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) that wants independence from China. In her victory speech, she vowed to preserve the status quo in relations with China, adding Beijing must respect Taiwan’s democracy and […]

A Photo for Friday

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“All Fall Down” March 24, 2011 Pike Road, AL

Laffer’s Laughable Prediction

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Via The Hill:  Economist: GOP may win 47 states in general election Supply-side economist Arthur Laffer is predicting Republicans will win the White House in a landslide this year, regardless of the nominee. “I would be surprised if the Republicans don’t take 45, 46, 47 states out of the 50,” Laffer told host John Catsimatidis on […]

“They” Wins

Via Wonkblog:  Sorry, grammar nerds. The singular ‘they’ has been declared Word of the Year.

Oregon Standoff Update

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Via The Oregonian:  Oregon standoff: Idaho group arrives to ‘secure perimeter, prevent Waco-style situation’ The arrival of the “3% of Idaho” was the latest development in the situation outside Burns, where an armed occupation of the refuge by an Ammon Bundy-led militant group entered its seventh day. “They just keep an eye on everything that is […]

Empirical Evidence that Some People have too Much Money?

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Via Politico:  Former AIG chairman Hank Greenberg invests $10 million in Jeb Bush.

Greg Abbott, Anti-Federalist

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Governor Abbott may claim he seeks to restore the constitutional order, but in fact his proposals have a lot in common with those who opposed the documents ratification in the first place.

A Photo for Friday

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This seems an appropriate image for this week:   “End of the Day Distortions” September 15, 2011

Iraq/ISIS Updates

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Via CNN:  Ramadi has been taken back from ISIS, Iraqis say Iraqi troops have retaken the city of Ramadi from ISIS, the country’s military said. Troops have raised the Iraqi flag on top of the government compound in central Ramadi, military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Rasoul said Monday. Ramadi, in Anbar province, about 110 kilometers […]

Today in “Not the Onion”

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Via Politico:  One person shows up to O’Malley event in Iowa, remains uncommitted.

A Photo for Friday

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So here’s an attempt to actually remember when it is Friday in 2016: “One for the Money” January 1, 2016

Know your Stats Terms

A useful primer:  Statistical terms used in research studies: A primer for media.

Polling Errors in the UK Elections

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Some may recall that the polling for the House of Commons elections in 2015 did a pretty poor job of predicting the final outcome.  A piece in the Guardian discusses some studies as to why that may have been the case:  Why opinion pollsters failed to predict overall majority for David Cameron. Analysis undertaken by polling […]

Project 365 2015

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I have been doing Project 365 (a photo a day) since 2009. For the second year in a row I have made all 365 (and for the third time overall). Click on the photo to go to the album:

13 Days of Photos: Day 13

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The image is really more appropriate for this evening (if not very early tomorrow morning), but Happy New Year! Untitlted July 4, 2015 Montgomery, AL

A Reminder about Primary Polling

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Worth the read from Nate Cohn at the NYT’s The Upshot:  Are Primary Polls Finally Predictive? No, but This Is When the Fun Starts.  

13 Days of Photos: Day 12

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“Three” January 3, 2015 Pike Road, AL

Pataki Out

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Another minnow is winnowed. Via CNN: George Pataki drops presidential bid

13 Days of Photos, Day 11

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A bit of a visual cliche, I will admit, but hey, I like the shot:   “Dandelion” April 12, 2015 Pike Road, AL

An Alt Right Primer

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While I was passingly familiar with the alt right movement, I found this piece from Buzzfeed to be informative (and depressing):  How 2015 Fueled The Rise Of The Freewheeling, White Nationalist Alt Right Movement. And, unfortunately, 2016 is going to provide additional chances to discuss this topic given the racism and nationalism fueling the Trump campaign.

13 Days of Photos: Day 10

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Untitled February 12, 2015 Pike Road, AL

13 Days of Photos: Day 9

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“Christmas Kitty” December 25, 2015 Pike Road, AL

No, the US is not on the Verge of a Multi-Party System

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We will have a two party system for the foreseeable future.

Some Genuine American Exceptionalism

Via Mental Floss:  Countries That Haven’t Adopted the Metric System.

13 Days of Photos: Day 8

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Although taken months ago, this is weirdly still fitting for December 2015: “Silver Drops”May 15, 2015 Pike Road, AL

Pastor of First Baptist Dallas’ View on Refugees and Carpet Bombings

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A five minute segment on the O’Reilly Factor clearly underscores how intertwined he is in secular politics.

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