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Carly Fiorina’s Campaign Is Complaining About CNN’s Debate Rules

Carly Fiorina

Carly Fiorina will most likely be excluded from CNN’s prime time debate in September, so of course her campaign is complaining about rules that were established months ago.

Second Quarter G.D.P. Revision Shows Strong Growth, But Future Weakness Seems Likely

Economy Heartbeat

Today’s revision of Second Quarter G.D.P. growth was good news, but it doesn’t seem likely to last.

Memories of Polling Past

polling-stick-figures-1

Thinking back to about this time in 2011.

Candidate Loyalty Oaths Are Unenforceable And Unconstitutional

bill-of-rights

States who try to use loyalty oaths to keep Donald Trump off the ballot will be running afoul of the Constitution.

Bernie Sanders Is Giving Hillary Clinton A Contest In New Hampshire, But Nowhere Else

Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders

Another poll shows Bernie Sanders doing will in New Hampshire, but there’s no evidence he’s catching on anywhere else in the country.

Trump Continues To Lead The GOP Field, But Is His Support Overstated?

donald-trump-microphone

Donald Trump’s support in the polls appears to become coming largely from people who don’t typically vote in primary elections.

State-Level Republicans Looking At Ways To Keep Trump Off The Ballot

Trump Announcement

Republican officials in three states are looking at ways to keep Donald Trump off the primary ballot unless he pledges to support the eventual GOP nominee.

Elizabeth Warren’s Supporters Aren’t Thrilled About Joe Biden, But Who Is Really?

Biden

Joe Biden may want to run for President, but does anyone else? It doesn’t really seem like it.

Stock Market Drop Leads Trump And Walker To Say Dumb Things About China

Chinese and U.S. flags fly along Pennsylvania Avenue outside the White House in Washington

Yesterday’s stock market drop led some Republican candidates to say some particularly dumb things.

Hispanics Hate Trump, Love Hillary, Indifferent to Rest of Republican Field

gallup-republican-contentenders-hispanic-favorability-20150823

Trump is at -51 net favorability and Clinton at +40. The rest of the field is at “Who?”

How Much Will Trumpism Damage The Republican Party?

donald-trump-microphone

Even if Donald Trump isn’t the Republican nominee in 2016, he could still end up causing real harm to the party’s chances of winning the White House and holding on to the Senate.

The Biden Speculation Continues

Joe Biden Speaking

Thanks in part to a slow summer news cycle, the speculation about Vice-President Biden entering the race for President seems to be reaching a fever pitch.

Another Walker Flip-Flop On Immigration Amid Crashing Poll Numbers

Scott Walker Speaking

Scott Walker is flip-flopping on immigration again, while his poll numbers sink like a stone.

78 > 22

Trump Escalator

If we are gong to assess the significance of Trump, we need to pay attention to the numbers.

TL;DR Meme Version of Taylor’s Post

us-politics

In case my 1000+ word post on Trump and the GOP field was too much, here’s the meme version: Having read some of the comments on my post, and having thought a bit more about what I am trying to convey, the issue is this:  by the time the voting starts there won’t be 17 […]

Should Political Debates Be on Pay TV?

2nd televised debate between Richard M. Nixon & John F. Kennedy (L)  (Photo by Paul Schutzer/The LIFE Picture Collection/Getty Images)

Susan Crawford claims that “Cable-Only Presidential Debates are the New Poll Tax.”

Rand Paul Buys Himself A Caucus So He Can Run For Two Offices At Once

Rand Paul Campaign Rally

Thanks to $500,000, Rand Paul bought himself a caucus so he can run for two offices at once.

Don’t Expect The Republican Field To Shrink Very Much Before Iowa

Republican Debate August 6

For a variety of reasons, it’s unlikely that the Republican field will shrink significantly before the Iowa Caucuses.

As Hillary Clinton’s Poll Numbers Drop, Is A Biden Candidacy Becoming More Likely?

Biden

The reports about Vice-President Biden possibly entering the Presidential race continue to persist.

The “Anchor Baby” Myth

border-illegal-aliens-flag

There are no “anchor babies,” there are only Americans.

Comparative Citizenship

us-politics

If anyone is interested in the question of where the US fits in comparatively on the question of birthright citizenship the answer is:  we are in the distinction minority.  In terms of comparison to other highly developed states only the US and Canada have birthright citizenship.  On a geographical dimension, the practice is common in […]

Majority Of Americans Oppose Iran Nuclear Deal, But It Will Likely Go Into Effect Anyway

Iran Nuclear Deal Congress

Another poll shows that a majority of Americans oppose the Iranian nuclear deal, but the effort to defeat it in Congress is still likely to fail.

Private Email Servers And Hillary Clinton’s Judgment, Or Lack Thereof

Clinton Shrug

Hillary Clinton’s own campaign admits she “didn’t think it through” when she decided to use a private email server as Secretary of State.

Has Donald Trump Peaked? Possibly, But He’s Still Doing Pretty Good

Trump Announcement

There are some signs that Donald Trump has peaked in the polls, but at his current position he’s still in pretty good shape unfortunately.

Hillary Clinton Continues To Dodge And Dismiss Questions About Her Private Email Server

Hillary Clinton Blackberry

While new information seems to come out on a daily basis, Hillary Clinton would rather that everyone think that her private email server wasn’t really a very big deal.

Walker, Jindal, And Graham Endorse Donald Trump’s Plan To End Birthright Citizenship

Border of US And Mexico

It will never actually happen, of course, but some of Donald Trump’s fellow candidates for President have been eager to endorse his idea to abolish birthright citizenship.

Trump and American Political Parties

Fox News Republican Debate Lineup

Trump illustrates the weak nature of our parties.

Trump Continues To Lead A Fluid GOP Field

Campaign 2016

Donald Trump is still in the lead of the Republican circus, but the rest of the field remains uncertain in the wake of the first debate.

Donald Trump’s Immigration Plan As Bad As You’d Expect

donald-trump-microphone

Donald Trump’s immigration plan is would create a police state, violate people’s rights, and hurt America’s economy. And his supporters will most likely love it.

Democratic Donors Not Eager For Biden To Get Into The Race

Biden

Top Democratic donors don’t really seem very eager for Vice-President Biden to enter the race for President.

Republican Race Shaken Up After First Debate, But Trump Still Leads

Republican Debate August 6

There have been some changes in the race for the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump, Human Bias, and the Art of the Deal

dilbert-relative-deprivation-bias

Tomorrow morning, I teach a seminar on “Perception, Cognition, and Biases” as part of our introductory Think, Decide, and Communicate course. Just in time, Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert and author of several related books, has written two interesting blog posts on how the Donald Trump campaign is brilliantly manipulating bias and other weaknesses in […]

The Wrong Iraq Question

Iraq US Flag

To lose something one has to have it in the first place. (It is pretty basic logic).

Joe Biden Casually Mulling a Sketchy, Preliminary Plan for a Tentative White House Run, Some Speculate

Biden Sunglasses

The POLITICO gang report that a “Joe Biden strategy for [a] White House run [is] taking shape.”

Time To Take Trump Seriously?

donald-trump-microphone

The buffoonish billionaire is tapping into something real.

Hillary Clinton’s Server and Sensitive Compartmented Information

Clinton, Gates, And Mullen Testify Before Senate Foreign Relations Cmte

Clinton’s wanton disregard for the rules had predictable consequences.

Jeb Bush Is Willfully Blind To The Truth About The Iraq War

3-no-iraq-war

Like many Republicans, Jeb Bush continues to be willfully blind to the truth about the Iraq War.

Trump Leads In Iowa, While Walker Declines

Trump Announcement

Donald Trump is leading in Iowa, and very few things make sense anymore.

Mexico To Trump: No, We Won’t Pay For Your Wall

Donald Trump Speaking Closeup

Donald Trump’s assertion that he will get Mexico to pay for his border wall is being laughed at in Mexico City.

Most Americans Support A Pathway To Citizenship For Illegal Immigrants

border-immigrants-crossing

Another poll shows that most Americans, and even most Republicans, support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

Scott Walker’s Crony Capitalism

Scott Walker Speaking

“Fiscal conservative” Scott Walker is handing Wisconsin taxpayers a $400 million bill for a new arena for the Milwaukee Bucks.

Bernie Sanders Pulls Ahead Of Clinton In New Hampshire Poll

Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders

A new poll shows Bernie Sanders ahead of Hillary Clinton, but within the margin of error, in New Hampshire. But a deeper examination suggests that Bernie-mentum is a mile wide and an inch deep.

Hillary Clinton Turns Over Server After New Classified Emails Are Revealed

Hillary Clinton Blackberry

Hillary Clinton has turned over her private email server in the wake of reports about highly classified information in her email.

Taiwanese Animators Take On The Republican Presidential Debate

GOP Debate Aug 15

The Taiwanese Animators have taken on last Thursday’s Republican Presidential debate, and everything you’d expected it to be:

Lawrence Lessig Apparently Thinking Of Running For President For Some Reason

Vote 2016

Politico is reporting that Harvard Law Professor Lawrence Lessig is exploring the idea of running for President: Another Democrat is stepping into the presidential ring. Harvard Law professor Lawrence Lessig is exploring a bid for the White House, according to a website announcing the plan. He aims to crowdsource enough money on the Internet to […]

Democrats Not Exactly Eager For Joe Biden To Run For President

Biden Sunglasses

Based on a recent poll, it doesn’t appear that Democrats are all that eager for Vice-President Biden to challenge Hillary Clinton.

Rick Perry’s Campaign May Be At The Beginning Of The End

US-POLITICS-IMMIGRATION-OBAMA

Rick Perry’s campaign is already showing signs that it may not last long.

First Post-Debate Polls Show Donald Trump Still Leading

Donald Trump Speaking Closeup

The first national poll to come out since the Republican debate last Thursday seem to suggest that Donald Trump has not been damaged by either his debate performance or the comments he has made in the days afterward about Fox News Channel host Megyn Kelly: Donald Trump’s lead over his Republican presidential rivals grew substantially […]

Trump Remains Defiant As Post-Debate Controversy Continues

Trump Nixon V

Donald Trump isn’t backing down from his post-debate meltdown, now the only question is what the polls will tell us when they come out.

Moody’s Predicts 2016

us-politics

Via CNN Money:  Time-tested model says a Democrat will win in 2016 Republicans might be in the spotlight this week with their first big debate, but Democrats received some very encouraging news. Moody’s Analytics, which has correctly predicted every presidential race since Ronald Reagan’s victory in 1980, just came out with its forecast for 2016. […]

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