The NYT gives prominent attention to news that Democrats run relatively conservative candidates in key House seats they are trying to keep or snatch from the Republicans. In their push to win back control of the House, Democrats have turned to conservative and moderate candidates who fit the profiles of their districts more closely than [...]

It would appear that corporate America is hedging its bets, suddenly giving massive amounts of money to the Democrats. Corporate America is already thinking beyond Election Day, increasing its share of last-minute donations to Democratic candidates and quietly devising strategies for how to work with Democrats if they win control of Congress. The shift in [...]

Dan Drezner believes that the administration’s abandonment of the “stay the course” mantra, while good from a public policy standpoint, may be quite harmful politically: For the past five years, Democrats have been vulnerable on national security issues. Bush and the Republicans projected a clear image of taking the war to the enemy, and never [...]

John Lott and Brad Smith argue in an op-ed in today’s Washington Times that Air America was never intended to be a successful radio network but was instead a rather clever circumvention of campaign finance laws. When is a campaign donation not a campaign donation? Apparently if you spend the money to run a radio [...]

Senator George Allen has issued a press release detailing lurid, strange, and otherwise lame scenes from the novels of his Democratic opponent, former Navy Secretary James Webb. WEBB’S WEIRD WORLD The Author’s Disturbing Writings Show a Continued Pattern of Demeaning Women · Some of Webb’s writings are very disturbing for a candidate hoping to represent [...]

In the wake of yesterday’s New Jersey Supreme Court ruling, the heat is likely to be turned up further on Democrats’ efforts to distance themselves from the same-sex marriage issue. An inadvertent case in point: David Greenberg’s attempt to show that Democrats aren’t really that pro-gay-marriage after all at Open University, complaining about a New [...]

An attack ad running against Harold Ford and sponsored by the Republican National Committee is generating controversy, with the Ford campaign calling it “racist” and his Republican opponent, Bob Corker, calling for it to be removed from the air. Here’s the video: Here’s the transcript: (UNKNOWN): Harold Ford looks nice, isn’t that enough? (UNKNOWN): Terrorists [...]

Despite–or perhaps because of–a steady stream of polls showing the Republicans losing large numbers of seats in three weeks, the RNC continues to beat the DNC in the fundraising battle. The Republican National Committee (RNC) reported raising $14.4 million in September, bringing the national GOP political organization’s overall receipts this campaign cycle to just less [...]

No, it’s not Lucy Baxley, the current Democratic lieutenant governor, or incumbent Bob Riley. It’s a candidate who couldn’t even get on the ballot but is nonetheless getting national attention. Loretta Nall, the Libertarian Party’s write-in candidate for governor of Alabama, is campaigning on her cleavage and hoping that voters will eventually focus on her [...]

Rusty Shackleford looks at the latest sophisticated modeling forecasts produced by political scientists to predict the results of next month’s elections. Amazingly, they’re very close to what amateur poll watchers are guessing.

The current congressional delegation is the oldest in history. Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.V., is an institution. He’s the longest serving senator in U.S. history. He’s also 88 years old, and if he wins re-election — he’s the clear favorite in his race — he’ll be 95 at the end of his ninth term. But Byrd [...]

In a decision that may have nationwide implications, the Supreme Court has vacated a 9th Circuit Court of Appeals injunction that stopped Arizona from enforcing its new voter ID provision–a decision at odds with recent court decisions regarding other states’ voter ID laws, including Missouri’s, which is not likely to be affected directly by this [...]

…who thought my “joke” post about Bush influencing the 2003/2005 elections via gasoline prices was a strawman. Conspiracy Theories Abound as Oil Prices Fluctuate, Washington Post. Further, we have these posts by Professor James Hamilton, a rather well respected expert in econometrics and time series in specific. Here are some of the blogs that think [...]

That’s the message of a new RNC ad entitled “The Stakes.” Here’s the video: Breitbart: The Republican Party will begin airing a hard-hitting ad this weekend that warns of more cataclysmic terror attacks against the U.S. homeland. The ad portrays Osama bin Laden and quotes his threats against America dating to February 1998. “These are [...]

To stem the three month decline in prices OPEC is going to cut oil production by 1 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia is strongly backing this cut in production as well. DOHA, Qatar OPEC producers led by Saudi Arabia sought to reassert their grip on falling oil prices Thursday by backing a production cut [...]

A Florida judge ruled that Republicans can’t violate state election law to clear up confusion over the fact that Mark Foley’s name is on the ballot in Florida-16 even though Joe Negron is the candidate. The Republican Party’s hopes of holding on to the Florida 16th District seat of resigned Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley [...]

Today’s WaPo reports on at the defection of high-profile GOP moderates in Kansas to the Democratic ticket in this year’s election season: Paul Morrison, a career prosecutor who specializes in putting killers behind bars, has the bulletproof résumé and the rugged looks of a law-and-order Republican, which is what he was until last year. That [...]

Rick Santorum told a suburban Philadelphia newspaper that the Lord of the Rings provides valuable insights for the Iraq War. In an interview with the editorial board of the Bucks County Courier Times, embattled Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has equated the war in Iraq with J.R.R. Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings.” According to the paper, [...]

I’ve gotten two emails this morning from the Republican National Committee’s eCampaign flacking the idea that Rep. Stenny Hoyer made racist remarks about Maryland Lieutenant Governor/U.S. Senate nominee Michael Steele. Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele accused a leading Democratic congressman yesterday of racial insensitivity for saying the Republican candidate has “slavishly” followed the GOP. [...]

Up in the Progressive Northwest state of Washington, the sole state-wide Senate debate occurred, and there were THREE candidates in the debate. Yes, the Libertarian (Guthrie) was there too, but only because he donated over $1M to his cause. The other candidates are Maria Cantwell (D), former sort-of Real Networks exec who cashed out at [...]

Jeff Birnbaum and Zach Goldfarb report that the Democrats spent their money early, leaving the GOP with an advantage of “more than 2 to 1 in money on hand” to make a last-minute push in several key House races. This has Matt Yglesias and Scott Lemieux somewhat pessimistic about their side’s chances of taking over. [...]

An amendment to the commonwealth’s constitution that would explicitly ban gay marriage and civil unions has a comfortable 53 percent to 43 percent lead among likely voters, according to the latest WaPo poll. A majority of Virginians support a proposed constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriage and civil unions, although voters split on the [...]

Gallup released a new poll Thursday headlined “Religious Whites Disproportionately Shift Away from GOP.” It’s perhaps the clearest indication yet that the Republican base is becoming disillusioned with the party. An analysis of USA Today/Gallup poll trend data indicates that while Democrats have made gains across the board on the generic Congressional ballot in the [...]

Scott Elliot, whose dad would have been 63 today had he not been murdered along with his mother in Iraq two years ago, has an impassioned plea for Republicans not to give up hope just because there has been a spate of bad news. The task for our opponents, then, is to win the war [...]

Again we get another interesting tidbit of information from James Hamilton. This one deals with the claim by Woodward that the Saudis are behind the current price drop in oil (and hence gasoline) and that they did it for the sole reason to help out President Bush. I already pointed out that this type of [...]

Like James Hamilton I find Tradesports (and the related Iowa Electrionic Market) to be helpful in getting an idea of how the election is going to go. And if these markets are good indicators, things look bad for the Republicans in terms of holding onto the House, let alone gaining seats. If we think of [...]

The Republicans continue their free fall in the latest Gallup poll. A Capitol Hill sex scandal has reinforced public doubts about Republican leadership and pushed Democrats to a huge lead in the race for control of Congress four weeks before Election Day, the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows. Democrats had a 23-point lead over Republicans [...]

Thomas Barnett draws an interesting lesson from the rise of YouTube politics. He summarizes a front page WSJ piece on the Montana Senate campaign: Constant observation of the foe. Unrelenting surveillance. Every gaffe exposed and then run ad nauseum on the web. His ability to orient himself as desired in the race is disrupted. Conrad [...]

Over at Cato Unbound Markos Moulitsas attempts to make the case as to why Libertarians should vote for Democrat Candidates next month. The reason I say he attempts to make this case is because he basically wants people who have a strong libertarian streak to think that up is down and black is white. Moulitsas [...]

Stuart Rothenberg is going further than most respected analysts, wondering “how Democrats can possibly fail in their efforts to take both the House and the Senate” and thinking the atmosphere is right for “a blowout of cosmic proportions next month.” He emphasizes that this is “not a prediction,” merely analysis. Still, has reasoning is hard [...]

An unspecified internal Republican poll says the party will get wiped out in November if Dennis Hastert remains Speaker. House Republican candidates will suffer massive losses if House Speaker Dennis Hastert remains speaker until Election Day, according to internal polling data from a prominent GOP pollster, FOX News has learned. “The data suggests Americans have [...]

Joe Lieberman is once again running away with the Connecticut Senate race. Senator Joseph Lieberman (I) has increased his margin over Democrat Ned Lamont by eight points. He now leads the antiwar candidate 50% to 40% (see crosstabs [$]). Thirty-nine percent (39%) are certain of their Lieberman vote, while 30% definitely expect to pull the [...]

Academic Elephant reports that a new Public Opinion Strategies* poll has Republican challenger Diana Irey pulling within ten points of 30-year incumbent John Murtha for the PA-12 seat. While 55%-45% is a very comfortable lead less than four weeks from the election, he had a thirty point lead not long ago, has been transformed into [...]

James Hamilton does a pretty good job debunking the Great Gasoline Conspiracy about how the recent decline in gasoline prices is due to a clever Rovian plot. An Econbrowser reader calling himself “Alan Greenspend” calls our attention to a post by Russ Winter detailing how George Bush might be responsible for falling gasoline prices. After [...]

Rick Santorum appears to be engaging in a bit of economic/historical revisionism. You probably remember well when Bill Clinton and the Democrats passed the largest single tax increase in our nation’s history in 1993, $293 billion. That sent our nation into an economic slump. Uhhh…what? As David Adesnik suggested, maybe Santorum is confusing 1993 with [...]

The Senate Democrats are hedging their bets, apparently promising Joe Lieberman he will retain his seniority if he’s re-elected as an Independent and joins their caucus. Sen. Joe Lieberman, the longtime Democratic senator from Connecticut running for re-election as an independent, says the party leadership has assured him he would keep his seniority if he [...]

Florida state representative Joe Negron has been named to replace Mark Foley in the race for Congress–but not to replace him on the ballot. The candidate chosen to replace former Rep. Mark Foley on the November ballot faces the awkward task of persuading voters to elect him by casting a vote for the disgraced former [...]

Mark Foley has resigned from Congress. Saying he was “deeply sorry,” Congressman Mark Foley (R-FL) resigned from Congress today, hours after ABC News questioned him about sexually explicit internet messages with current and former congressional pages under the age of 18. A spokesman for Foley, the chairman of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited [...]

While still a longshot, some stumbles by favored Republicans and surprisingly strong showings by some underdogs are making Democrats optimistic about their chances of winning back the Senate. Six weeks before Election Day, the Democrats suddenly face a map with unexpected opportunities in their battle for control of the Senate. In Virginia, a state that [...]

Salon quotes three former teammates saying George Allen used the word “nigger” frequently in the early 1970s. Three former college football teammates of Sen. George Allen say that the Virginia Republican repeatedly used an inflammatory racial epithet and demonstrated racist attitudes toward blacks during the early 1970s. “Allen said he came to Virginia because he [...]

David Adesnik of OxBlog finds Nancy Pelosi running away from the term “liberal” in the run-up to the November elections. The president’s approval rating hasn’t seen the brighter side of 50% in years. Confident liberals installed Howard Dean as chairman of the Democratic party and threw their weight behind a successful anti-Lieberman insurgency. So, has [...]

A truly bizarre sequence from last evening’s debate between Senator George Allen and former Navy Secretary Jim Webb: a local reporter asked if Allen’s mother was secretly Jewish, drawing boos from the audience and a tongue-lashing from Allen. Dana Milbank recounts the event and provides helpful background: At a debate in Tysons Corner yesterday between [...]

Dan Gillmor outlines an exciting project he’s spearheading in California’s most competitive race this year, for the 11th Congressional District seat held by Republican Richard Pombo. First: Working with citizens in the district, we hope to create an online repository of every scrap of information about the candidates, issues and campaign. This will include videos [...]

My latest for TCS Daily, “I Know You Are But What Am I?,” is up. It takes a look at the game of tit-for-tat character assassination being employed between George Allen and Jim Webb in their campaign for the Senate. The close: Instead of trying to tear the other man down, why not try instead [...]

Seeing a chance to knock of incumbent Democrat Robert Menendez, New Jersey Republicans are working to prevent the state’s Democrats from pulling a Torricelli. With Robert Menendez’ U.S. Senate campaign under unexpected pressure, his Republican rivals are trying to prevent Democratic leaders from bumping him from the race and replacing him with another candidate. Senate [...]

Jim VandeHei and Chris Cillizza have an interesting piece in today’s WaPo (A23) that argues Lincoln Chafee’s primary victory may well be a model for Republican victory in November. The turnout campaign that Republican operatives used to help pull Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee to victory in the Rhode Island primary was a potent demonstration of [...]

About three weeks ago, I offered some advice for Senator George Allen: “He’s going to have to open up and provide a convincing backstory to explain how a California boy grew up with such a fondness for the Confederacy and cowboy boots.” He is finally starting to do just that. Allen, 54, said he did [...]

Barring tragedy, conversion, or an upset of monumental proportions in November, Keith Ellison will become the first Muslim Member of Congress next January. Democrats in Minnesota’s strongly Democratic 5th Congressional District put history into motion by nominating state Rep. Keith Ellison in Tuesday’s primary — all but guaranteeing that he will become the first Muslim [...]

Hotline On Call and Political Wire will be up late tonight updating the results of several key primaries. Shockingly, it appears that Hillary Clinton will be re-nominated by the Democrats for her NY Senate seat. See our Trends feed for other reports throughout the night in Arizona, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode [...]

Washington Monthly collects a series of essays from prominent fiscal conservatives and otherwise disgruntled Republicans arguing that it’s time for Republicans to go. Christopher Buckley, son of Wm. F Jr., leads the way with “Let’s quit while we’re behind.” On Capitol Hill, a Republican Senate and House are now distinguished by—or perhaps even synonymous with—earmarks, [...]