Indiana and North Carolina Primary Predictions (Updated)

Voters in Indiana and North Carolina go to the polls today having far more impact on the race than anyone would have thought possible four months ago. If Barack Obama wins both states, even narrowly, it will be difficult for Hillary Clinton to justify staying in the race. If Clinton wins both, it will be evident that recent ...

$5 Gas Coming Soon, People Fear

Americans will soon be paying $5 a gallon for gasoline, at least if a survey of people who haven't the foggiest idea of how the petroleum market works is any indication. Americans are already paying through the nose for gasoline, and they think it's only going to get worse. A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that 94% of respondents ...

Obama’s Poll Numbers Dropping; Clinton’s Too

A series of public opinion polls show Barack Obama's support dropping among Democrats, with Hillary Clinton the obvious beneficiary. While her numbers are static, or even dropping, she's now ahead of him in several head-to-head polls nationally and has opened up a big lead in Indiana. The RealClearPolitics average still shows a 1.6 percent Obama lead but that's entirely ...

Poll: Bush a Liability for McCain

A new NBC/WSJ poll shows that being seen as too close to George W. Bush is bringing John McCain down. I'm pretty sure that Peter Hart and Neil Newhouse already knew that, since I did, but it's good to put a number on these things (43 percent, as it turns out). Other interesting findings: 36 percent have major concerns that ...

Clinton Leads McCain in AP Poll

The most recent AP/Ipsos poll shows Hillary Clinton well ahead of John McCain, and AP's staff is using this to bolster Clinton's campaign. Hillary Rodham Clinton now leads John McCain by 9 points in a head-to-head presidential matchup, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll that bolsters her argument that she is more electable than Democratic rival Barack Obama. Obama and ...

Clinton Wins Big in Pennsylvania, Fights On

Hillary Clinton won the Pennsylvania primary by ten points [actually, 8.6* or whatever**], continuing her string of large state victories and thereby keeping her dim hopes for the presidency alive. Unfortunately for Clinton, the press is treating this is a foregone conclusion, despite inconsistent polls and a hard fought six week battle. ABC's Jennifer Parker: Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., has ...

Obese Feel More Discrimination

Even though Americans are fatter than ever, we're actually less tolerant of fat people. So say fat people. Led by Tatiana Andreyeva, a postdoctoral research associate at Yale's Rudd Center for Food Policy and Obesity, a team of researchers questioned 1,100 subjects, aged 35 to 74, twice over a 10-year span (once between 1995 and 1996, and again between ...

McCain Hires Pollster McInturff

John McCain has re-hired Bill McInturff and his team at Public Opinion Strategies to conduct his polling. Sen. John McCain, still rebuilding his presidential campaign after last summer’s near-bankruptcy and staff upheaval, has re-enlisted respected veteran Bill McInturff as his pollster. McInturff, co-founder of the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, has been the Arizona senator’s pollster since the early 1990s and worked ...

McCain-Rice Beats Obama-Clinton in New York

A John McCain-Condolezza Rice ticket would beat the Democratic "Dream Ticket" of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Clinton's "home" state of New York, a Marist College poll shows. A McCain/Rice ticket would edge out both a Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket for New York’s 31, usually true blue, electoral votes: 49% of registered voters in New York State support ...

Obama Endorsement Costs Oprah Fans

Costas Panagopoulos, director of Fordham University’s Center for Electoral Politics and Democracy, has studied Oprah Winfrey's popularity polls over the years and found that her ratings "plummeted" after endorsing Barack Obama -- "almost instantly." Panagopoulos chronicles nearly two decades of "sky high" approval for Winfrey, who was consistently among the most popular woman in the country. Then, in May ...

Sneakers the Sign of a Leader?

Leadership apparently sneaks up on you. Got a passion for buying sneakers? It could be a good sign, with a poll finding that people who buy three pairs of sneakers or more a year are far more likely to be a leadership type than other people. Mindset Media, a media company that examines personality traits of different consumers, found that people ...

Obama Fails to Assuage White Voters (Who Weren’t Paying Attention and Didn’t Need Assuaging)

Bloomberg is running a bizarre story under the banner headline "Obama Speech Fails to Assuage White Indiana Voters. The crux of it is this: Interviews with dozens of Democrats in this overwhelmingly white region -- where voters will go to the polls in the May 6 primary -- suggest residual concerns over the controversy involving Obama's former pastor, Reverend ...

Poll: Reverend Wright Not a Factor

Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro take a look at the results of a new NBC/WSJ poll and find some surprises. Most notably, about half the people had never heard of Reverend Jeremiah Wright. Pollster Peter Hart calls the NBC/WSJ poll a “myth buster” survey; it really breaks down a lot of the myths we've been hearing over the last week ...

Beer vs. Wine Vote

The 2008 presidential election will come down to beer drinkers vs. wine drinkers, if a silly new poll is to be believed. Beer drinkers appear more likely to vote for Sen. John McCain in November, while those who enjoy wine say they’re more likely to vote Democratic in the fall. Among registered voters who prefer beer to wine, McCain ...

McCain More Popular Than Ever

"John McCain's 67% favorable rating is the highest of any of the three major candidates running for president, and ties for his highest in Gallup polling history," Frank Newport reports. The numbers aren't particularly surprising given that most national polls show McCain running neck-and-neck with Obama and both ahead of Clinton. Given the controversy with Jeremiah Wright and relative good ...