I was able to find the exact text of the plebiscite that Manuel “Mel” Zelaya wanted to proffer to the citizens of Honduras this past Sunday. The text and a photo of the ballot that was to be used can be found here.

The odd thing, and a fact that hasn’t made it into a lot of press accounts or snap judgments about the situation, is that the language in question is not about re-election, but rather would have asked whether or not the public wanted to have a referendum in November about whether or not to call a constitutional convention to write a new constitution. As such, it is unclear to me at the moment why the accusation was that Zelaya was seeking immediate re-election, as even if his plebiscite had been approved, I cannot see how it would have led to be him being on the ballot in November (which is when the next presidential term, which starts in January, is set to be filled). I will continue to research that issue.

More discussion at the link above.

The events in Honduras today have been some of the more dramatic in recent Latin American (and especially Central American) politics. The events are certainly of relevance to the democratic evolution of Honduras. Dave Schuler asked that I post a few comments given my academic focus on Latin America.

If anyone is interested in the topic, I have written quite a bit about it today:

• Coup in Honduras, President Forced into Exile
• The Legality of the Honduran Coup
• Looking to the Honduran Constitution
• Wherefore art thou, O Veep? (More Honduras)
• More on the Honduran Constitution
• Yes, Yes it was a Coup

I think it is also worth noting that many are forming opinions simply based on the fact that ousted President Zelaya was a political ally of Hugo Chávez, but that fact is irrelevant to whether or not the actions taken by members of the Honduran government and military were legal. I do concur that Zelaya’s proposed plebiscite was unconstitutional and that he was violating a Supreme Court ruling in pursuing it. As such, I agree that action was warranted against Zelaya, but that doesn’t affect the fact that what was undertaken in Honduras was a coup, albeit a bloodless one.

Democracies are not made healthier by extra-legal moves even if they are made to block other extra-legal moves. Indeed, the inability of the congress and the courts to find an alternative means of blocking Zelaya’s plebiscite apart from arrest and exile underscores institutional weakness, not strength.

Via the BBC: Farc ‘co-ordinator’ held in Spain

Spanish police say they have arrested the representative of the left-wing Colombian rebel group Farc in Spain.

Maria Remedios Garcia Albert, a Spanish national, was detained near Madrid, as part of a joint operation by the Spanish and Colombian authorities.

[...]

It is claimed that Ms Garcia helped co-ordinate the group’s wider activities in Europe – allegedly liaising with counterparts in Switzerland and Sweden.

It is possible that Garcia was tracked down from information captured from the laptop of Raúl Reyes, who was killed in combat in March. The avalanche of woes that have been visited upon the FARC in the last year or so has been remarkable.

The most recent example was the highly publicized rescue of Ingrid Betancourt and 14 other hostages (including three Americans). Not only were Betancourt and the three Americans perhaps the most valuable assets that the FARC had, the rescue operation utterly embarrassed them.

Additionally there has been the following:

• The death of the FARC’s founder, Ivan Marulanda.
• The surrender of top level leader Karina.
• The capture of another top leader, Santiago.
• The aforementioned death of Reyes in the raid over the Colombian-Ecuador border that sparked off a diplomatic row in the region (and Ecuador still remains hacked off at Colombia). The raid that killed Reyes led to acquisition of the aforementioned laptop.
• The death of Ivan Rios at the hands of a reward-seeking fellow member of the FARC, who had been (like Reyes) a member of the FARC’s seven-man secretariat. He was Karina’s immediate boss and his death appears to have set off a chain of events that led to her surrender.

A casual perusal of that list would lead one to believe that the FARC must be on its last legs and while I would like to think that as well, I remain cautious in rendering any conclusions at this point in time. It should be noted that the FARC has been in constant operation since the mid-1960s and has been, to use a word, resilient. At the moment they exist in a number of cells across the country, which makes direct destruction difficult (indeed, it was the fragmented nature of the group that the Colombian government exploited in its rescue of Betancourt). Further, their participation in the cocaine trade gives them a remarkable revenue source. As such, while the FARC has clearly been reduced in size, it is easy to see them continuing their operations for the foreseeable future, if anything because the money is available for them to do so.

There is the chance that there will be some internal divisions with the group, as the more ideologically oriented portions seek to continue armed struggle (it is thought that the current leader whose nom de guerre is El Mono Jojoy is more ideologically minded than some of the commanders) and those who simply want to pursue their criminal activities. Indeed, there are reports that some FARC fronts have teamed up with right-wing paramilitary groups (their alleged enemies) to engage in drug related activities.

There is no doubt that the armed conflict is evolving at the moment, and that the Colombian state is making strides, but I would caution against any assumptions that we are on the verge of violence ceasing. There is still the question of the ELN (the National Liberation Army, Colombia’s second largest guerrilla group) and the paramilitaries. In fact, I fear that as long at there is money to be made from drugs that there will be some sort of serious violence problem in Colombia.

The daring rescue of Ingrid Betancourt from FARC terrorists misused the Red Cross symbol in violation of the Geneva Conventions.

A member of the military mission that tricked Colombian rebels into freeing 15 hostages wore the insignia of the International Red Cross during the operation, President Alvaro Uribe said Wednesday.

Mr. Uribe said his government had apologized to the Red Cross for the incident, which he called an unauthorized error by a nervous soldier. “An officer mistakenly and contrary to orders … put a piece of cloth on his vest that carried the symbol of the International Committee of the Red Cross,” Mr. Uribe said in a speech in Bogota.

A fleeting image of a portion of the cloth is visible in video taken of the operation by an agent posing as a cameraman that was officially released.

Use of the Red Cross symbol in such a military operation would appear to violate the Geneva Conventions that protect the relief organization’s reputation for neutrality in conflicts.

There’s no “appear” to it.

One hesitates to overstate matters given the stakes involved.  The rescue of these hostages is an unmitigated good.   Further, I believe Uribe when he says it was done contrary to orders.

Still, this is a serious matter.   Having soldiers pose as relief workers or journalists is illegal because, otherwise, no one would recognize the sanctity of those people and they would be in danger.  Using the Red Cross is particularly egregious because it could deny captured soldiers and their families the benefits of visits to ensure humane treatment.

Recall Clara Barton’s words from 1878:

A confederation of Relief Societies in different countries, acting under the Geneva Convention, carries on its work under the sign of the Red Cross. The aim of these societies is to ameliorate the condition of wounded soldiers in the armies in campaign on land or sea, and to furnish relief in cases of great national calamity.

The societies had their rise in the conviction of certain philanthropic men, that the official sanitary service in wars is usually insufficient, and that the charity of the people, which at such times exhibits itself munificently, should be organized for the best possible utilization. An International Public Conference was called at Geneva, Switzerland, in 1863, which, though it had not an official character, brought together representatives from a number of governments. At this conference a treaty was drawn up, afterwards remodeled and improved, which twenty-five governments have signed.

The treaty provides for the neutrality of all sanitary supplies, ambulances, surgeons, nurses, attendants, and the sick or wounded men, and their safe conduct, when they bear the sign of the organization, viz: the Red Cross.

This only works if people trust that only legitimate relief workers seek sanctuary behind the Red Cross symbol.

Woodrow Wilson Red Cross Poster:  Sparacus Education:  Red Cross

Íngrid Betancourt Pulecio was freed yesterday in a daring rescue by the Colombian National Army after more than five years of captivity by FARC narco-terrorists.

[S]he and 14 other hostages — including three U.S. military contractors held since 2003 — were airlifted to freedom in an audaciously “perfect” operation involving military spies who tricked the rebels into handing over their prize hostages without firing a shot.

The stunning caper involved months of intelligence gathering, dozens of helicopters on standby and a strong dose of deceit: The rebels shoved the captives, their hands bound, onto a white unmarked MI-17 helicopter, believing they were being transferred to another guerrilla camp.

Looking at helicopter’s crew, some wearing Che Guevara shirts, Betancourt reasoned they weren’t aid workers, as she’d expected — but rebels. This was just another indignity — the helicopter “had no flag, no insignia.” Angry and upset, she refused a coat they offered as they told her she was going to a colder climate. But not long after the group was airborne, Betancourt turned around and saw the local commander, alias Cesar, a man who had tormented her for four years, blindfolded and stripped naked on the floor.

Then came the unbelievable words. “We’re the national army,” said one of the crewman. “You’re free.”

The helicopter crew were soldiers in disguise. Cesar and the other guerrilla aboard had been persuaded to hand over their pistols, then overpowered. Not a single shot was fired in Wednesday’s rescue mission, which snatched from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, the four foreigners who were its greatest bargaining chips.

“The helicopter almost fell from the sky because we were jumping up and down, yelling, crying, hugging one another,” Betancourt later said.

The operation, which also freed 11 Colombian soldiers and police, “will go into history for its audacity and effectiveness,” Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos said. It was the most serious blow ever dealt to the 44-year-old FARC, which is already reeling from the recent deaths of key commanders and thousands of defections after withering pressure from Colombia’s U.S.-trained and advised armed forces.

Military intelligence agents had infiltrated the FARC’s top ranks — not one but many — in an operation that began last year and developed slowly and with meticulous care, Colombia’s top generals said.

Amazingly good news. Steven Taylor, who studies Colombian politics for a living, has roundups here and here.

James Cason, the U.S. Ambassador to Paraguay, has achieved rock star status in that country. Literally.

[H]e learned the obscure Paraguayan Guaraní language, recorded a music album of indigenous folk songs and sold 1,000 tickets to a concert in a downtown theater. Now, in the final year of his four-decade diplomatic career, Cason has suddenly become the toast of Paraguay, or at least the country’s most unusual pop star.

”He’s been on TV and in all the newspapers,” said Nelson Viveros, 16, who traveled to meet the ambassador recently in Encarnación, by the Argentina border. “It’s strange, but people love it.”

Reviews have been mixed:

In a review of the CD release show in the Ultima Hora newspaper, a critic noted that Cason ‘’sat on a stool with the lyrics in front of him” during the entire performance, appearing ”nervous or unsure about the tune and pronunciation of Guaraní.” The newspaper La Nación was more direct: The ambassador, it said, “sang in the monotone of a tired bird.”

Following the show in Itá, Cason said, fan mail poured into the embassy — as did invitations to festivals and for a (nonsinging) cameo as a cardinal in the opera Tosca. The songs he had performed in Itá went into heavy rotation on local radio stations.

Judge for yourself. Here’s a video of Cason’s musical stylings:

Story via Patrick Fitzgerald. Photo credit: State Department.

Absolut Vodka has got some ’splainin’ to do:

Laura Martínez found the ad in the print edition of Quién magazine in Mexico City and it’s going viral. Jim Hoft has picked it up, calling it an “Absolut-ly Outrageous Ad,” Pierre Legrand profanely calls for a boycott, and Brian Ledbetter goes with “Absolut-ly Insulting.” Michelle Malkin cranks it up a notch, with “Absolut Reconquista.”

Patrick Ishmael fights fire with fire:

What I haven’t been able to determine is the context. Is this a joke? Does Absolut have similar campaigns around the world playing up other nationalist sympathies?

UPDATE: Cernig points out in the comments that Absolut is known for its highly targeted niche advertising. As the linked page notes:

The Absolut campaign effectively addresses a range of niche markets by adjusting the referents to suit its particular audiences. Many times one can be looking through a specialty magazine and an Absolut ad that was obviously, specifically created for this magazine, even though the ad never deviates from its original format.

[...]

Absolut, along with many other advertisements, has been able to turn their campaign from mainstream images, such as Marilyn Monroe (left), Houdini, L.A. and the meaning associated with every other major city in the world, to niche market images, such as homosexual icons, obscure artists, etc. As they appropriate these images, the success of the niche images becomes comparable to the mainstream images, however, they maintain the aura of a niche image. For example, “Absolut Spada”(left) represents an artist popular in the gay world. His art is all encompassing of homosexual images. There are freedom rings flying above him. His feet are “flaming.” He is “coming out” of the Absolut bottle. The ad is directly hailing the gay niche market. Here the have taken signs -gay signs- and turned them into commodity signs which sell their product in the same way as the mainstream images which Absolut audiences understand.

Presumably, they’re figuring that straights aren’t reading gay magazines and that gringos aren’t reading Quién. That’s generally a pretty safe assumption. In the Internet age, though, it’s increasingly difficult to keep targeted messages from spreading beyond their intended audience. Indeed, there’s a whole website dedicated to nothing but cataloging Absolut ads. Which, incidentally, featured the Mexico ad almost a month ago. The comments section didn’t catch fire until this morning, however.

Here’s a follow-up to a story I noted yesterday: (via the BBC), Ecuadorean death report confirmed

Colombia has confirmed that an Ecuadorean was killed when its troops attacked a rebel camp inside the neighbouring state three weeks ago.

Defence Minister Juan Manuel Santos said his body was taken to Colombia after the raid along with that of top leftist Colombian rebel Raul Reyes.

[...]

News that Bogota has confirmed killing an Ecuadorean threatens to plunge the two countries back into diplomatic crisis, and perhaps again put the entire Andean region on a war footing, the BBC’s Jeremy McDermott reports from Colombia.

Confirming that an Ecuadorean citizen had been killed, Colombia’s defence ministry said the dead man appeared to have been a member of the Farc who specialised in helping rebels cross into Ecuador to hide.

At a minimum, this will increase tensions with Ecuador and allow President Correa a reason to continue to desist from reestablishing diplomatic relations with Colombia. No doubt the next step will be for Ecuador to dispute the role of the dead Ecuadoran.

Via the LAT: Peru sees cocaine making a comeback

Peru’s cocaine industry, the world’s largest and most violent in the late 1980s and early 1990s, is again on the upswing. Plots of coca bushes, whose leaves yield cocaine, have increased by about one-third since 1999, to about 127,000 acres, according to Peruvian and United Nations estimates.

And this time, the traffickers may be more difficult to combat because the flashy kingpins from Colombia have been replaced by a piecemeal network, a sort of gold rush of international entrepreneurs.

Production is still well below the record highs of the early 1990s, and neighboring Colombia has surpassed Peru as the global cocaine leader, supplying 90% of the U.S. market, according to the State Department. Moreover, President Alan Garcia is a staunch foe of the drug.

[...]

But Peru, the world’s No. 2 supplier, feeds a booming demand in Brazil, Europe, East Asia and as far away as Australia, authorities say. The density of coca plantings has doubled in some cases, experts say, and the fertilizer-nourished leaf now yields a greater proportion of cocaine alkaloid, the active ingredient in cocaine.

And the basic narrative on coca production continues:

During the 1990s, U.S.-backed enforcement efforts chased much of the coca trade to Colombia. Now, some say, the wheel is turning: Pressure in Colombia is shifting production here.

The new twist (although not as new as the story makes it out to be) is that instead of large drug organization like the Medellin or Cali cartels being the main managerial components of the trade, there are now a large number of small, basically independent operators who much be combated.

Of course, the basic story will remain the same: as long as there are a mounds of money to be made trafficking in cocaine, the US government can spend as much as it likes trying to stop it, the effort will be in vain. So instead of actually diminishing the amount of coca under cultivation, all the US essentially does is move the cultivation around (even incentivizing cultivators to grow in new areas).

Via the BBC: Ecuador warns Colombia over raid

Ecuador President Rafael Correa has warned of diplomatic tension if an Ecuadorean is found among the victims of a Colombian raid inside Ecuador.

Mr Correa said Ecuador would not forgive the murder of Franklin Aisalia, if he had indeed died during the raid on Farc rebels inside Ecuador.

But he said he hoped Colombia would prove this was not the case.

Ecuador has ordered a probe after the man’s family said he died in the raid in which a senior Farc boss was killed.

[...]

“It would be extremely grave if it is proven that a Ecuadorean died,” the president said on Ecuadorean radio. “We will not let this murder go unpunished.”

Correa left the meeting in Santo Domingo over the entire affair with an obvious reluctance to move on. It may well be that the the Aisalia situation is an excuse to find a way to continue to confrontation. However, if the Colombians killed an innocent Ecuadoran that would reignite the crisis in a new guise. At a minimum, it is clear that relations between these two Andean states are hardly warm at the moment.

Fidel Castro has finally resigned the presidency of Cuba.

Ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro said on Tuesday that he will not return to lead the country as president or commander-in-chief, retiring as head of state 49 years after he seized power in an armed revolution.

Castro, 81, who has not appeared in public for almost 19 months after undergoing stomach surgery, said in a message to the communist nation that he would not seek a new presidential term when the National Assembly meets on February 24.

“To my dear compatriots, who gave me the immense honor in recent days of electing me a member of parliament … I communicate to you that I will not aspire to or accept — I repeat not aspire to or accept — the positions of President of Council of State and Commander in Chief,” Castro said in the statement published on the Web site of the Communist Party’s Granma newspaper.

The National Assembly or legislature is expected to nominate his brother and designated successor Raul Castro, 76, as president. Raul Castro has been running the country since emergency surgery to stop intestinal bleeding forced Castro to delegate power on July 31, 2006.

Since the United States placed sanctions on Cuba in 1962, Castro has managed to outlast John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and Bill Clinton. Another year, and he’d have been able to add George W. Bush to the list, too.

The formal announcement of that which has been all but obvious for well over a year won’t change much of anything. The good news is that Raul is unlikely to last 49 years in office. Hopefully, a real transition will happen soon.

As an aside, an Aididas track suit is far less imposing than his traditional combat fatigues. Then again, he looks pretty good for an 81-year-old in deteriorating health.

Via the BBC: Castro ‘well enough for election’

The health of Cuban President Fidel Castro is good enough for him to be a candidate in next month’s parliamentary elections, his brother Raul has said.

Which raises the question: apart from breathing, how healthy is “enough” to run, given that he won’t have to campaign or do much of anything else?

We often say that candidates “run” for office or “stand” for election. In Fidel’s case it may not necessarily be that either is the appropriate term (although Raul reports that Fidel is doing two hours of exercise a day, whatever that may mean).

Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez will have to make do with the powers he currently has after voters narrowly rejected two packages of constitutional amendments proposed by Chávez and the Chavista-dominated national legislature:

Venezuelan voters narrowly rejected a constitutional referendum that would have bolstered President Hugo Chavez’s embrace of socialism and granted an indefinite extension of his eligibility to serve as president, the National Electoral Council reported early Monday.

About 51 percent of voters opposed the amendments, while approximately 49 percent were in favor of them.

“Don’t feel sad. Don’t feel burdened,” Chavez told supporters immediately after the results were announced.

More than nine million of Venezuelan’s 16 million eligible voters went to the polls Sunday.

President of the National Electoral Council, Tibisay Lucena, said the process “shows the entire world that we are a democratic country.”

Chavez, in what he called a talk “from my heart” acknowledging the results, thanked those who opposed his proposal, saying the election had proven that Venezuelan democracy is maturing.

Thousands of people gathered in the streets, many of them university students who worked to defeat the measure, burst into singing their country’s national anthem upon hearing the news.

Quite a few of us political science types figured Chávez would win, either by hook or crook, but apparently we were mistaken, which is probably good news for those concerned by the possibility of further slides to authoritarianism in Venezuela. It’s possible that these amendments will be resurrected again, however, as the next legislative elections aren’t due for over two years and Chávez’s term doesn’t end until January 2013.

In light of the recent flap over whether the United States should issue driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants, USA Today helpfully notes that Mexico requires proof of legal residency before issuing licenses.

Which, I’m sure, is a real inconvenience for all those gringos headed south of the border to take jobs from hard-working Mexicans.

Photo: Chris Hawley, USA Today/Arizona Republic.

Glenn Reynolds wonders, “WHY IS THE WORLD MORE CONCERNED with Musharraf’s coup than with Hugo Chavez’s emerging dicatatorship? Because enemies of the United States, like Chavez, get a pass.”

Tom Maguire responds, reasonably enough, “because Pakistan has nuclear weapons and harbors (willingly or otherwise) the remnants of Al Qaeda and the Taliban. What’s that compared to a spot of Venezuelan oil?” Quite right.

A constitutional crisis in Pakistan has the potential to further inflame the whole region. India could get involved. There could be spillover effects into Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and elsewhere. Venezuela’s misery, by contrast, is mostly confined to its own population.

Moreover, it’s hardly unfair to hold leaders that our president embraces as exemplars of democracy to a higher standard than tinpot dictators.