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Clinton Jumps To Massive Lead In New Iowa Poll

iowa

In one of the first polls taken in the wake of Vice-President Biden’s decision not to run for President and her appearance before the House Select Committee investigating the Benghazi attack, Hillary Clinton has jumped to a massive lead in Iowa:

With Vice President Joe Biden officially out of the running and the Benghazi testimony behind her, Hillary Clinton has surged to a 41-point lead in the first caucus state of Iowa, according to results out Tuesday from the latest Monmouth University poll surveying likely Democratic caucus-goers.

Clinton earned the support of nearly two in three likely participants in next February’s caucus, with 65 percent. Her next closest competitor, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, took 24 percent. In third place is former Gov. Martin O’Malley with 5 percent, and Harvard law professor Larry Lessig follows with 1 percent.

The RealClearPolitics average of Iowa polls previously showed Clinton with a much more narrow lead over Sanders, with Biden in third place.

Among Sanders’ supporters, a majority of 68 percent said they back Clinton as their second choice, compared with just 19 percent for O’Malley.

In terms of favorability numbers, 88 percent see the former secretary of state positively, versus 8 percent who do not. Meanwhile, 77 percent have a favorable view of Sanders, while 11 percent do not.

Approximately four in 10, or 40 percent, of those surveyed said that they are “completely decided” on their candidate, about double the share of Republicans who said the same in a Monmouth poll released Monday. Another 37 percent said they have a strong preference but are willing to think about other choices, 10 percent indicated a slight preference and 13 percent said they were undecided. Among the 31 percent of Democrats who said they have met a candidate campaigning in Iowa, 21 percent said they saw Clinton in person, while 16 percent said they saw Sanders.

Prior to October, polling had shown Clinton’s previously huge lead in the Hawkeye State diminish in the wake of revelations about her private email server and her campaign’s muddled response to the same, the wave of success and goodwill that Bernie Sanders has received since entering the race, and the speculation about Vice-President Biden perhaps making a last-minute entry into the Democratic race for President. Over the past month, though, Clinton has seen good news in the polls, a widely well-received performance in the first Democratic debate, the news that Vice-President Biden is not running for President, and, of course, her appearance last Thursday before the Benghazi Committee. If this poll, which is one of the first released not to include Joe Biden as a potential candidate in some time, is any indication then she is in very good shape indeed.

In the Iowa Poll Average, RealClearPolitics now has Clinton with 15.5 point lead while Pollster has  her with a 3 point lead, although that is largely due to the fact that Pollster includes polling that RCP does not in calculating its average. Whichever number you use, though, it seems fairly clear that Clinton’s campaign has clearly turned a corner from the summer doldrums she was experiencing earlier this year.

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. DK says:

    But…but…the internet said Bernie is winning! In a landslide!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  2. michael reynolds says:

    As I said at the time: Hillary’s debate followed by the committee appearance didn’t just kill Republicans, it killed Bernie. Hillary takes Iowa, Hillary takes Nevada and South Carolina, the only thing Bernie has a prayer of winning now is New Hampshire – a win that will be discounted because he’s a neighbor.

    Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Super Tuesday. That’s the schedule. So this is either all over by February 9, if Bernie loses NH, or it’s all over March 1 when Hillary’s resources just crush Bernie underfoot.

    I know we all want to pretend there’s a real race here,but there isn’t.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

  3. al-Ameda says:

    I have two questions:

    (1) Why is it that the Democratic Party side of the Iowa caucus and polling aisle is seemingly so much more normal than the Republican side is?

    (2) Also, from this type of polling may we logically infer that the 27% crazification factor is at least 96% a Republican phenomenon?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  4. Tyrell says:

    Polls also have shown problems when it comes to Hillary’s popularity, trustfulness, and personality. It seems that a lot of Democrats would prefer someone else if it is the right person. There are some possibilities if they were interested: Cuomo, Powell, Gates, Dempsey, even Buffet. All of these would be exciting candidates who would stir up total interest. It would help if presidents have military experience.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 8

  5. Wr says:

    @Tyrell: Seriously? Cuomo is a slimy little junior version of Christie with huge ethics problems. Powell went to the UN and lied us into war. Gates and Dempsey are political non-entities and Buffet is a a billion years old. I can’t imagine a single Democrat preferring any of these over Hillary.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  6. michael reynolds says:

    @al-Ameda:

    The Democrats live in cities. The Republicans look at corn all day. Have you ever stared long and hard at a field of corn? You’d go crazy, too.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  7. Neil Hudelson says:

    @Tyrell:

    Cuomo, Powell, Gates, Dempsey, even Buffet

    You think Democrats would rather support two Republicans, a General who has never shown any inclinations or skill at politics whatsoever, or an hedge fund manager who will be a nonagenarian in his first time, over Hillary?

    It seems that a lot of Democrats would prefer someone else if it is the right person.

    As opposed to all the other politicians who voters love unreservedly, no matter who the other candidates are?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  8. stonetools says:

    Seems that Bernie has sunk back into gadfly status. Good. He can stay out there, keeping Clinton leaning left, while she prepares for the real conflict-the general election against the Republicans.
    There, things also look good. The Republicans seem set to engage in a Hobbesian “war of all against all” that hopefully will last to the end of the primary season and will leave the eventual nominee so weakened and compromised that we will get the landslide wave election victory that the Democrats need.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  9. Tyrell says:

    Hillary needs to move to the center if she is nominated. If she gets any further left, she is going to find herself in the left field foul section of Wrigley Field, a cold, forlorn place in November.There are a lot of key states that are not going to go for someone in the left. The Democrats cannot afford another McGovern type disaster of ’72’ .

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2

  10. Matt says:

    @Tyrell: You have no freaking idea where the left really is. Hillary is to the right of conservatives in Canada, Europe and more…

    Hillary is a typical corporate democrat who would of fit in well with the republicans before they lost their minds. Show me a time when she was “far left”. You can’t..

    Stop regurgitating stupid talking points.

    Bernie isn’t even that far left wing. His “socialism” is considered mild slightly left of center around the world.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  11. Matt says:

    @Tyrell: You have no freaking idea where the left really is. Hillary is to the right of conservatives in Canada, Europe and more…

    Hillary is a typical corporate democrat who would of fit in well with the republicans before they lost their minds. Show me a time when she was “far left”. You can’t..

    Stop regurgitating stupid talking points.

    Bernie isn’t even that far left wing. His “socialism” is considered mild slightly left of center around the world.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0