Consumer Confidence Slips in October
Steve Verdon
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Tuesday, October 31, 2006
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3 comments
The Conference Board noted that the index of consumer confidence dipped unexpectedly on Monday due to concerns over the job market and the economy in general. The decline was small with the index dropping from 105.9 in September to 105.4.
“October’s dip in confidence was prompted by consumers’ mixed assessment of present-day business conditions and a less favorable view of the job market,” says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. “Consumers’ short-term expectations posted a slight improvement, but the outlook for the labor market remains mixed. Overall, this month’s readings continue to suggest a moderate pace of economic growth and more of the same for the first few months of 2007.”
Overall, it isn’t that bad, but note that the overall trend of the index since April has been in a downward direction.
About Steve Verdon
Steve has a B.A. in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles and attended graduate school at The George Washington University, leaving school shortly before staring work on his dissertation when his first child was born. He works in the energy industry and prior to that worked at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Division of Price Index and Number Research. He joined the staff at OTB in November 2004.
Anything over 100 is fine
Is this index worth a damn? It seems to indicate nothing more than press reports
I’m confused. The Washington Post said today that Consumer Confidence was at the highest point since January 2004. Obviously, the Washington Post is using a different model than the Conference Board, but how could they be so different?
And the overall trend since May is up (four above May, one below). And the overall trend since February is decidedly up (seven above February and one below). I think this is a classic example of the glass being half full or half empty. By choosing the high point, you see the glass has less in it. By looking at the starting data point, you the glass has more in it.