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Gallup: No Significant Ryan Bounce For Romney

There doesn’t appear to be any significant initial bounce in the polls for Mitt Romney from his selection of Paul Ryan, at least according to the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:

PRINCETON, NJ — Mitt Romney’s standing in the presidential election campaign has not changed materially in the immediate days after his announcement of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as his vice-presidential running mate. The first four days of Gallup Daily tracking after Romney’s announcement show 47% of registered voters saying they would vote for Romney and 45% for Barack Obama if the election were held today. The four days prior showed Romney at 46% and Obama at 45%.

While the initial indication is no increase in Romney’s support after naming Ryan, the data suggest the possibility that Romney may get a delayed bounce, as he fared slightly better in Aug. 13-14 Gallup tracking than in Aug. 11-12 tracking.

The lack of an immediate increase for Romney is consistent with Sunday’s USA Today/Gallup poll that found a generally tepid reaction to the Ryan pick, especially in comparison to past vice-presidential choices.

Like this year, Gallup also did not find any significant change in voter preferences for the 2008 election after Obama and John McCain each named his running mate. However, in the 1996-2004 campaigns, the vice presidential choice seemed to have a more noticeable impact on voters.

Here’s the chart showing the lack of an initial bounce:

And here’s one comparing this years numbers to past elections:

One reason the “bounce” effect may not be as pronounced as it was in the past may be the fact that the world of round-the-clock political coverage means that it’s that much harder for a campaign to change the narrative of the race in a news cycle that never really ends. Additionally, the fact that our politics are much more polarized than they were 16 years ago means that people’s minds are already going to be made up about a particular nominee’s choice of a running mate relatively quickly, and in a highly partisan manner. Quite simply, the number of people who can be influenced by a VP pick is much smaller, so the movement in the polls is going to be much smaller. Perhaps we’ll see more movement for Romney/Ryan in the coming weeks, along with a small bounce coming out of the convention, but it’s not likely to be very long or last very long.

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. al-Ameda says:

    Basically, Ryan passed the minimum (if the president died) test easily.

    And I suspect that the margin of error, if applied here, would probably be to the benefit of the Romney/Ryan ticket.

    There is no doubt, that Paul Ryan, like Sarah Palin really enthralls base Republicans.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  2. Smooth Jazz says:

    LOL, That gives new perspective to the phrase “Everything is relative”, meaning Romney leads Obama in the Gallup Daily Tracker 47% – 45%. This left wing blog and all the far left, DailyKOS type cranks that hang out here have been saying all week that Obama was on his way to a landslide, Ryan was a terrible pick, blah blah blah – based, in part, on juiced polls from the likes of CNN, NBC, NY Times, Pew, Reuters, etc that are polling 15% – 20% more Dems to rig their polls in Obama’s favor.

    Now, Gallup comes up with a poll, based on polling thousands of respondents, up to the minute – and based on a more representative sample of Dem 35, Rep 33 & Ind 32 – and presto: Romney Leads Obama And the best you can do is come up with the Lib spin that Ryan didn’t help after quoting all those other bogus polls all last week showing Obama ahead 10+ as if they were legit.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 10

  3. Smooth Jazz says:

    Oops, forgot to mention: Romney has moved ahead in 2 critical swing states, OH & VA. And this is from a reputable poster with a reasonable partisan demographic, unlike that bogus Dem 10+ versus Rep sample that New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac came up a week or so ago. There is no possible way that Dems will outnumber Rep voters by 10+% in a year when Reps are so psyched to vote. The cranks at DailyKOS/HuffPost/Talking Points Memo/etc are shaking in their boots now after proclaiming last week that Obama has this in the bag.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/romney-ryan-obama-poll-ohio-virginia-swing-states-2012-8?op=1

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 7

  4. wr says:

    @Smooth Jazz: How’s President Palin working out for you, Smoothie?

    Pardon me if I don’t take any further predictions from you too seriously…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

  5. Tano says:

    @Smooth Jazz:

    Why don’t you find a mindless rant site, since that is what you seem comfortable with.

    Your argument is downright incoherent. You contrast the polls showing Obama ahead with the Gallup poll to try to disprove the claim that the Ryan pick had no positive effect. If you had any appreciation for logic, you would realize that the appropriate comparison would be between the Gallup poll pre-pick, vs post-pick – which is precisely what Doug has reported.

    Or, you could look at the other polls and see their movement from before to after the pick. They may be biased as you say, but their degree of bias probably does not change from day to day which means the movement in the polls may well be informative, even if you don’t believe the actual numbers. (this is why most of us look at the Rasmussen poll for example – though strongly GOP-biased,there is valuable information in the direction and scale of the movements)

    Speaking of which, have you noticed any movement in Rasmussen that would signify increased support since the Ryan pick? Neither have I.

    So do you have a specific point about this specific issue, or is the boilerplate “liberal bias” rant all ya got?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

  6. michael reynolds says:

    I’m going to go put on some boots so I can shake in them.

    This is going to be a close election. It’s going to be nasty. But my money’s still on Obama, with the caveat that the Republicans may succeed in stealing the election by denying students and inner city voters the right to vote. I doubt the GOP can win, but they can steal.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

  7. Tsar Nicholas says:

    Me thinks Gallup here might just have had a stopped clock moment.

    Look at it this way: When you have your roll out of your veep selection over a weekend, in the dead of summer, during the Olympics, in a period of high unemployment and rampant foreclosures, how exactly can you obtain any material “bounce?” Zombieland last weekend either was doing summer stuff and out of town, or they were watching the Olympics, or feverishly looking for work, or trying to keep roofs over their heads. I’m actually surprised Gallup managed to find even that one point shift.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  8. bill says:

    the debates will sway the fence sitters, those who really don’t delve into “who stands for what” so much as “how they say it”.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  9. Tony W says:

    @Tsar Nicholas: My guess is that the timing was very deliberate. Hitting the public with a person like Ryan during the meat of the mid-week news cycle, after the Olympics, etc. when everyone is paying attention would not be strategically advantageous given his very controversial positions.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  10. Jenos Idanian #13 says:

    @al-Ameda: Basically, Ryan passed the minimum (if the president died) test easily.

    And Joe Biden passed that test?

    SERIOUSLY?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 2

  11. Jenos Idanian #13 says:

    @Tano: Why don’t you find a mindless rant site, since that is what you seem comfortable with.

    The fact that you posted that right after a comment from wr says far more than I could hope to add.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 1

  12. Interesting comment by Simon Johnson at the Economix blog:

    The contrast between Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan tells us a great deal about the competition among fiscal ideas within the Republican Party. It also highlights the challenge Mr. Romney will face in November, if he is shifting rightward toward Mr. Ryan’s approach to budget policy, away from independents in the center of the political spectrum.

    I can get why non-centrist Republicans will be pleased, but the bounce would be about convincing the independents and the center.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  13. Also related:

    Study: Companies Paid More to CEOs Than in U.S. Tax

    So that crushing burden of tax doesn’t sound so crushing after all.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  14. Bloomberg:

    Romney-Ryan Want It Both Ways on Medicare

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  15. wr says:

    @Jenos Idanian #13: “The fact that you posted that right after a comment from wr says far more than I could hope to add.”

    Since you’ve never actually added anything to a conversation in your life, that’s not saying much.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  16. bill says:

    regardless of who you vote for you have to want to see joe biden in a debate- just the potential for “frothing at the mouth”, off the cuff remarks and endless faux pas’s) would be worth the price of admission. he’s his own sat night live parody! i try never to think that he’s next in line if anything happens to obama, would never sleep.

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