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GOP Takes Ten Point Lead In 2010 Generic Ballot

The latest Gallup Generic Ballot poll is enough to send Democrats on Capitol Hill heading for the bunkers:

PRINCETON, NJ — Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

These results are based on aggregated data from registered voters surveyed Aug. 23-29 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. This marks the fifth week in a row in which Republicans have held an advantage over Democrats — one that has ranged between 3 and 10 points.

The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994. Elections in both of these years resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats.

Of even more concern to Democrats, though, should be the fact that, with the mid-term campaign entering it’s final phase, Republicans are far more enthusiastic (and thus more likely to vote in November) than Democrats:

Gallup concludes:

The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall’s midterm congressional elections. Gallup’s generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost. Republicans’ presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major “wave” election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House.

The biggest problem for the Democrats is that there seem to be very few things that can happen between now and Election Day that can reverse the Republican momentum. The latest round of economic reports seem to establish fairly clearly that the economy is likely to remain flat or depressed during that time period and I doubt we’ll be getting any good news out of the jobs report that will be released this coming Friday, and it is primarily the economy that is driving voter anger at this point in time. Outside of some massive scandal that hurts Republicans or an international crisis that causes the public to rally around the President, both of which are unlikely, the pattern we’re in now is likely to be the one we’re in on Election Day. That’s bad news if you’re a Democrat.

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. Steven Donegal says:

    Now if they can only figure out a way to get generic Republicans on the ballot.

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  2. Newsprism says:

    I’m not surprised by this. The GOP has its most powerful and consistent hard at work to push the American people towards the right: the Democrats! http://www.newsprism.com

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  3. swift boater says:

    I don’t know about that, seems like a foreign policy crisis is easily made.
    There is always Iran. Maybe Dear Leader can make a deal with Ahmanutjob:  I’ll launch a few cruise missiles at an aspirin factory in the desert, you blow up something, somewhere, doesn’t matter.  We convene our 3rd Secretary’s of Peace to meet in a tropical locale (I’d go myself but I think the kids need me to go trick or treating with them) and we pronounce Peace in our Time.
    Don’t doubt it.

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  4. This gap will increase.  Take that to the nearest bank that hasn’t been nationalized yet.

    http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/
    “Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive”

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  5. Juneau: says:

    October Surorise?

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  6. Juneau: says:

    Funny how an “o” looks like a “p” on this new teensy-weensy default font :)

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  7. Pete says:

    Where’s the wisdom from Anjin-san and Michael Reynolds when we need it the most?

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  8. tom p says:

    >>>There is always Iran. Maybe Dear Leader can make a deal with Ahmanutjob:  I’ll launch a few cruise missiles at an aspirin factory in the desert, you blow up something, somewhere, doesn’t matter.  We convene our 3rd Secretary’s of Peace to meet in a tropical locale (I’d go myself but I think the kids need me to go trick or treating with them) and we pronounce Peace in our Time.<<<<

    Where have I seen this game before? When? Ohh… silly me. It was the 2002 election! True, there were a few differences, but the basic gist of the push to war was all a lie.

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  9. Rock says:

    If the misogynists keep attacking Sarah Palin and the MSM and lefty bloggers keep calling conservative citizens islamaphobic religious bigots, racist homophobic hillbillies, dumb uneducated idiots, etc., etc., clinging to their religion and guns, that lead will only increase.

    Rock

    See you at the gun show.

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  10. tom p says:

    >>>>If the misogynists keep attacking Sarah Palin and the MSM and lefty bloggers keep calling conservative citizens islamaphobic religious bigots, racist homophobic hillbillies, dumb uneducated idiots, etc., etc., clinging to their religion and guns, that lead will only increase.
    Rock
    See you at the gun show.<<<<

    Rock, that lead can’t increase, because all the “islamaphobic religious bigots, racist homophobic hillbillies, dumb uneducated idiots, etc., etc., clinging to their religion and guns,” are already at the gunshow buying more guns and ammo (I don’t know what they are going to do with it all)

    and no, you won’t see me at the gunshow. I already have enuf guns and ammo

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  11. G.A.Phillips says:

    I can’t have guns:(

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  12. Tano says:

    Once again – its the same old story. Pick out one poll and pretend that it represents some glimpse at objective truth.
     
    Why not look at the good ol’ Rasmussen poll that came out today? That shows only a 6 point lead for the Republicans – which, given Rasmussen’s well-known “house effect” means that the reality out there in the country is that the two parties are probably even.
     
    And this 6 point Rasmussen lead is DOWN from 9 points last week, and DOWN from 12 points the week before. So – BIG HEADLINE – Dems have gained 6 points on the GOP in the last 2 weeks.
     
    Ahh., competing polls. Isn’t it great? There is always something out there that will confirm your preconceptions, and your hopes.

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  13. tom p says:

    >>>>I can’t have guns:(<<<<

    Just out of curiosity GA, what were you convicted of?

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  14. anjin-san says:

    > Where’s the wisdom from Anjin-san and Michael Reynolds when we need it the most?
    They are busy being capitalists so they can write big checks to the IRS to help support all of the cats on the right who are busy whining and cashing government checks :)

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  15. G.A.Phillips says:

    ***Just out of curiosity GA, what were you convicted of?***

    B+E when I was a 17 years old, but I was waved into adult court.So I have a felony, some dumb drunken crap that lasted a couple minutes and lost me 4 months in jail and 3 years probation. I got off like a year in a half early for good behavior:)

    lol, Anjin you can just send me a check, I would much rather take your charity then a hand out from the goverment, heck mabe you could create me a job? 

     

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  16. jimmy carter says:

    miss me, yet?

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  17. mark l. says:

    Obama will go down as the man who killed liberalism.

    In rushing out a stimulus, believing the worst was behind him, he boosted the economy long enough to take complete ownership.

    The economy was(and is) like a patient suffering from cardiac arrest.   Doctor obama chose to forgo surgery, and just stabbed a 787 billion dollar adrenaline needle into the patient’s heart.  The patient got up, ran around the room, and the doc proceeded to take a bow.  Consulting physician dr krugman is advocating MORE adrenaline…

    meanwhile, the patient’s family(america) is struck with the ineptitude of the physicians and the mortal blow that has been dealt to their loved one.

    If the wh thinks they are going to be able to recover/triangulate enough to merit reelection, they are deluded.

    2012?
    aside from the gop taking the presidency, they senate features a 2-1 margin of dems to gop senate seats up for grabs.

    Is the gop a good choice?
    hell no.

    Are they better than the dems?
    infinitely yes.

    There was almost no chance that she would get any closer to the wh, than her speech at the lincoln memorial.  
    Now, she might as well start measuring the drapes.   

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  18. Brummagem Joe says:

    All those who think this is a done deal have an easy way to make their fortunes. Go out, mortgage their houses, borrow to the hilt and bet it on a Republican takeover of both houses. Easy money.  

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  19. Brummagem Joe says:

      ” Doctor obama chose to forgo surgery, ”

    So what would this surgery have consisted of?

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  20. sam says:

    @Juneau

    October Surorise

    I dunno. My reading of a lot of the right-ward blogs tells me that bombing Iran, for example, is an absolute necessity. So, if that were to be the surorise (and I agree completely about the mouse type default font), wouldn’t that pose some problems for righties? Something like, “Aha! I knew he’d do something just like this, even though I think something just like this absolutely has to be done.” Interesting to see how that would be finessed.
     

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  21. Herb says:

    Something for the partisans to consider:  We seem to like divided government…so 2010 goes to the Republicans and their obstruct/investigate agenda.  Guess who gets 2012?
     
    With that said, I think Rock has a keen insight into the mind of the current wingnut state of mind.

    If the misogynists keep attacking Sarah Palin and the MSM and lefty bloggers keep calling conservative citizens islamaphobic religious bigots, racist homophobic hillbillies, dumb uneducated idiots, etc., etc., clinging to their religion and guns, that lead will only increase.

     
    They’re not voting for the best person for the job.  They’re voting because they’ve got hurt feelings.

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  22. Rock says:

    Herb says:

    They’re not voting for the best person for the job.  They’re voting because they’ve got hurt feelings.

     
    Hurt Feelings?

    The Democrats now control the White House, both houses of Congress, the entire federal government, the MSM, Obama Care, the State Department, the Pentagon, two car companies, workers unions, Fannie and Freddie, academia, multitudes of other NGOs, and enough Czars to run Russia. The Dems and their lefty friends should be dancing and rejoicing in the streets. But no. They aren’t happy. They are the ones throwing caterwauling, walleyed hissy fits, like a bastard stepchild at a family reunion. Somehow their feelings got trampled on the way to Utopia.

    Rock

    See you at the tipping point.

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  23. Herb says:

    The Democrats now control the White House, both houses of Congress, the entire federal government, the MSM, Obama Care, the State Department, the Pentagon, two car companies, workers unions, Fannie and Freddie, academia, multitudes of other NGOs, and enough Czars to run Russia.

    Sorry, I misspoke.  Apparently, you’ve got delusions too.  Hurt feelings and delusions.  A dangerous combination, if you ask me.
    Too bad that the “conservative” politicians you elect don’t share your tilted views.  If they tell you they do, they’re <i>lying.</i>  And if you fall for it….well, who’s the sucker?

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  24. Tlaloc says:

    They’re not voting for the best person for the job.  They’re voting because they’ve got hurt feelings.

     
    Unfortunately despite a clear mandate to fix the thins the republicans screwed up over 8 years the dems chose to further and worsen most of the issues.  So how does that make them the best person for the job?  Better gridlock than enabling evil and arguing about whether it was the greater or lesser evil.

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  25. Dividist says:

    Impressive poll, but I am still dubious about taking the House. There is just no overestimating how difficult it is to flip the House. House incumbents (frequently aided by gerrymandered districts) enjoy extraordinarily high re-election rates. Even when voters tell pollsters they despise Congress in generic polls, they’ll still vote for  their specific representative who is often the conduit by which federal services are delivered or expedited to individuals, municipalities, and businesses in the district. House elections are almost always “local”  (in the Tip O’Neill sense).  In the almost 100 years since we have been been electing Senators directly (only since the 17th Amendment was ratified in 1913) the House of Representatives has never  flipped majorities unless the Senate flipped first or at the same time. If conventional wisdom is correct and the Republicans take the House but not the Senate, it would be an historic first… Soooo either the GOP takes both, or they take the Senate and fall just short on the House.
     
    My complete analysis here: <b><a href=”http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/2010/08/ten-in-ten-wherein-we-explore-prospects.html”>10 in ’10</a></b>

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  26. mark l. says:

    “So what would this surgery have consisted of?”

    have you looked at gdp growth forecasts?

     http://forecasts.org/gdp.htm

    what stimulates gdp growth, and what damages it?

    the pending 70 billion in projected revenue in the increase in taxation is worth no growth?

    the pending healthcare taxation, which is materializing for every american (right now) with an existing healthcare plan is worth it?

    kept hearing about building up our infrastructure…
    no refineries, no increase in domestic oil production, etc.

    the wh is largely hedged in by an unwillingness to make ANY short term sacrifice in their liberal principles for the greater good.

    if you want some gdp bang for your bucks, military spending works rather well.
    see reagan and fdr.

    yes, they all add to the deficit, but they also stimulate growth, BUT I have to ask what long term benefit was gained from the stimulus. 

    The only people who aren’t being asked to sacrifice are liberals, who won’t budge off their myopic fantasies that somehow taxing the rich will be able to fund their spending.

    2006…
    eu countries collected 25% of their govt receipts from income tax.
    ditto on the oecd average.

    us?
    36.5%

    libs are squeezing blood out of a turnip. 

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  27. mark l. says:

    “So what would this surgery have consisted of?”

    just add a tad…

    the past two suucessful economic runs of reagan and clinton are worth observing.

    Reagan?
    70% growth in federal revenue, 20% growth in govt spending(adjusting for inflation)
    25 million jobs.

    his success was no secret.  lower marginal rates provided a borad based stimulus to growth, AND(a recurring theme) a reduction in oil prices.

    Clinton?
    ditto on the oil price, only far more so.  A cold war draw down also added 1.4 trillion of govt revenues which could be spent, requiring no further taxation to fund.

    I’m going to throw out another rather successful run…
    GW bush, post 2003 tax cuts.  govt revenue rose 44% over the following four years, exceeding clinton’s best four year run at 39%.

    that we lost money because of tax cuts is perhaps one of the greatest myths of liberalism.
    the actual revenue that was a component of the clinton surplus budget was EXCEEDED in 2006-2007.  We had been running just a little behind their revenue projections, based largely on the recession, dot-com bust, and 9/11.

    By 06-07 we were actually doing better than projected.
    one of the chief components of the clinton surplus was the expected rate of govt growth was 2.9%/year.

    Obama jumped up govt by 16% in his first budget.

    so what is the 5 year solution?
    domestic oil production creating revenue and jobs.  decreasing the relative cost of govt, although that train left the station with obama’s first budget… 

    since obama can’t wait on oil prices, he is going to have to aggressively pursue reducing the cost on his own.  His plan for inflation is counter-intuitive to our tade deficit, based largely on oil.  Modest marginal cuts…33% on the top margin, instead of increasing the rates would also having a soothing effect.

    I know…it will explode the deficit, but not really any worse than blowing 787 billion to jump lilly pads half way across the river.  There aren’t any more liily pads in front of us, so we really have to turn back around and find another way.

    I appreciate the libs taking us in the wrong direction, as the progress that will be achieved just by returning us to pre-obama will have a staggeringly positive result on the economy.

    The gop president in 2012 will simply walk in and sink the 8-ball.

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  28. mark l. says:

    clinton budget projections that were referenced:

    http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/3xx/doc387/pb03-98.pdf

    As for monetary savings…

    bring the 35k home from south korea.
    we will NEVER be fighting a land war there again.

    ditto the 70k troops in germany and the 40k civilian contractors in support.

    end homeland security.  the don’t defend our southern borders, so they are rather useless.
    we already have the similar program of the “national security agency”, which once functioned as “homeland security”.

    we just paid 52 billion this year for a program which is semantically the same thing.  when I caught napolitano in one week discussing the oil spill, the panty bomber, and the soutern border, I realized her only role was to act as a firewall for the presidency.  It has always been the president’s job to address such matters, but now we have delegated downward.

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  29. Juneau: says:

    @ sam
    So, if that were to be the surorise (and I agree completely about the mouse type default font)


    Thank you, sam, for sincere amusement.  And yes, something like that might go over begrudgingly well with the right – convinced, as you say, about the justification of such an action, but highly suspicious of the timing.  I suspect that, being the political season and all, that Republicans would vigorously murmur about it briefly, but would quickly ( hopefully) realize that timing is less important than principle.  Hopefully.

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  30. mark l. says:

    drop the obama budget increase:
    500 billion saved.

    shut off the southern border:
    30-50 billion savings.

    end homeland security, letting most of the personnel get absorbed back into the previous divisions, 20 billion.

    removal of garrison in germany and south korea,
    40-50 billion not spent overseas, and recovered on stateside assignment:
    80-100 billion saved.

    domestic revenue from producing an additional 5 million barrels a day domestically:
    120-160 billion saved.

    short math would suggest that that the amount saved/earned etc would be in excess of 800 billion dollars, per year.

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  31. An Interested Party says:

    Interesting point about how lower oil prices helped the economy and the presidencies of Reagan and Clinton…of course, our activities in the Middle East since 9/11 have done nothing to raise the price of oil, right?  And we’re just sitting on so much domestic oil, so much that if we tapped it, prices would drop through the floor, right?  How very fanciful…as fanciful as the scenario that “returning us to pre-obama will have a staggeringly positive result on the economy”…as if the economy was just running on all cylinders before January 20, 2009. or even November 4, 2008…

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  32. [...] new polls out this morning seem to confirm the perception that’s developed over the past few weeks that Democrats are headed for a pretty bad night when November 2nd rolls [...]

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  33. [...] week I noted that the Gallup General Congressional Ballot Poll showed Republicans with the largest lead in the history of Gallup polling that question. This week, Gallup is out with a poll that purports to show that the parties are tied: PRINCETON, NJ [...]

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