Hillary Clinton Drops 9 Points, Still Cruising
Taegan Goddard reports that, “A comparison of WNBC/Marist Poll interviews conducted before and after last week’s Democratic debate reveals Sen. Hillary Clinton’s support among Democratic primary voters was 52% before the debate and 43% after the debate.”
To be sure, the margin for the Democratic subsample is +/-5% [PDF], so the drop is technically within that margin (since it applies to both the 52% and 43% numbers). Still, the numbers represent the center of a range and a 9 point drop is the best way to think of the results.
Of course, as Goddard also notes, she’s still blowing the doors off the rest of the field. According to the latest RealClear Politics average, she’s got a 21% lead over all her Democratic rivals nationally and the trend lines are moving in her direction. The pros will tell you that the national numbers are meaningless since we award convention delegates on a state-by-state basis. But she’s doing okay there, too:
- Iowa: 7.2
- New Hampshire: 19.2
- South Carolina: 15
- Florida: 26.5
- Nevada: 18.0
- Michigan: 19.0
- California: 28.0
- Pennsylvania: 28.0
- New Jersey: 31.0
It’s not too much of a stretch to say that the nomination is still hers to lose.