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It’s Two Weeks Until Election Day, And Things Are Looking Very Good For Hillary Clinton

Trump Clinton

Considering how long it seems as though we’ve been dealing with news of the race for President dominating the headlines, it’s hard to believe that we’ve reached the point where it’s almost over, but I’m happy to report that it’s true. Two weeks from today, Americans will head to the polls and, by the end of the evening, we should know who the 45th President of the United States will be. As we get closer to that day, both campaigns are working across the country at breakneck speeds to get supporters to the polls and battle for votes in what seem to be just a handful of remaining battleground states. Unfortunately for the Donald Trump campaign, several of those battlegrounds appears to be on territory that Republicans shouldn’t have to worry about at this point in an election, including closer than should be expected polling in states such as Arizona, Utah, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, and even Texas. The campaign news of the past week, meanwhile, was marked by the final Presidential debate, during which Trump refused to say that he would accept the results of the election and an appearance at the Al Smith Foundation Dinner that crossed the line into partisanship that had long been an established rule there for Presidential candidates. Hillary Clinton’s, meanwhile, was rocked once again by another round of email releases from Wikileaks, but the impact of this revelations seems to be limited to Trump supporters and other who aren’t inclined to support Clinton to begin with. Trump, meanwhile, continues with his rhetoric claiming that the entire electoral system, including the media and all the polls, except the ones that have good news for him, are biased against him. It’s rhetoric that likely helps to energize Trump supporters, but seems unlikely to attract new voters this late in the election cycle. As we’ll see below, there’s been some tightening in the polls at the national level, but not much, and in the Electoral College it’s looking very much as if Trump has almost no realistic path to victory unless the majority of the polls are completely wrong. As Steven Taylor noted yesterday, that’s the same kind of naive thinking about polls that was behind the “skewed polling” nonsense we saw four years ago, and it’s just as mistaken.

Last week, the national polls painted a picture that seemed to show Clinton setting up for a landslide victory on November 8th. While there’s still some possibility that could happen, the most likely outcome has always been something closer to what we saw in 2008 and 2012 simply due to the fact that we live in a very polarized nation and there are some voters who are just going to reflexively vote Republican or Democratic no matter whose at the top of the ticket, meaning that the odds of the kind of margins that would create a landslide like we last saw in 1984 are smaller than they used to be. In any case, this is a long way of saying that national polling over the past week has tightened just a little bit, although the picture still looks very good for Hillary Clinton. she now has a 5.1 point lead over Trump in a two-way race and leads him 48.3% to 43.2%. This is a drop from the 7.1 point lead she had after a particularly good weekend of poll releases at this time last week, but still pretty strong for this late in the race. In a four-way race, Clinton (45.3%) has a 5.4 point lead over Trump (39.9%). Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson, meanwhile, has fallen to an average of  6.0% nationally and the Green Party’s Jill Stein has fallen to 2.2%, which seems to be further confirmation of the argument that many made earlier in this race that the relatively high poll numbers for both third-party candidates were temporary at best. Once again, Pollster shows a similar outcome in both a two-way and a three-way race.  In the RealClearPolitics polling average of the Favorable/Unfavorable question for both candidates, both candidates continue to be viewed unfavorably but Clinton is in a decidedly better position than Trump, For Clinton an average of 52.9% of respondents saying they have an unfavorable opinion of her versus 43.3% who say they have a favorable opinion. This leaves her with an average deficit of -9.6 points. This compares quite favorably to Donald Trump who stands at 60.4% unfavorable and 35.9% favorable and an average deficit of -25.2 points.

Despite the apparent tightening, Clinton still has a comfortable lead, as we can see in the chart for the two-way race:

RCP Two Way Chart 102516

And the four way chart:

RCP Four Way Chart 102516

Turning to the state level polling, as I noted there are several apparent problems for Trump at that level, not the least of them being the fact that he is underperforming past GOP nominees in several key states, many of which have not been considered “battleground” states for some time, if they ever. Meanwhile, some traditional battleground states, such as Virginia, Florida, and New Hampshire, seem to be either firmly in Clinton’s corner or moving there. As a result, the RCP Electoral Map currently gives Clinton 272 Electoral Votes, two more EV’s than needed to win, to 126 Electoral Votes for Trump and 150 Electoral Votes from nine states and one Congressional District in Maine listed as toss-ups. One of those, toss-ups, though, is Minnesota, which hasn’t been polled since mid-September and, given the fact that it hasn’t gone for a Republican since 1972, it seems unlikely that this is a state that will slip out of Hillary Clinton’s fingers. This represents a real loss for Trump, as a number of states that were in his corner slipped into the “toss-up” category. Without toss-ups, Clinton has 333 Electoral Votes to 205 for Donald Trump. This is a slight loss for Trump over last week due to the loss of Arizona. If these trends hold, Clinton appears on deck to win an Electoral College victory comparable to what President Obama won in 2008 and 2012.

In the projections, Clinton’s turnaround continues to be reflected there as well. Nate Silver’s polls-only forecast, for example, projects a 86.3% likelihood of a Clinton victory and a  13.6% chance of a Republican victory while the ‘Polls-Plus’ forecast gives Clinton a  84.0% chance of winning versus 16.0% for Donald Trump and the “Now-cast,” which purports to project would happen if the election were held today, showing a 86.6% chance of a Clinton victory and a 13.3% chance of a Trump victory. These are all significant improvements over where Clinton was over the past two weeks. As was the case last week, Clinton fares slightly better in Sam Wang’s forecast and in Larry Sabato’s forecastThe New York Timesmeanwhile, gives Clinton a 91% chance of winning the race while DailyKos gives Clinton a 95% chance of winning. These are largely consistent with Clinton’s position last week.

As we go through the final two weeks of the campaign, there will be a lot of people telling Americans that “anything can happen,” or pointing to elections like the 1980 contest between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan in which Reagan didn’t begin to really break through until the final weeks of the campaign (as John Sides and others have pointed out the extent to which Reagan was really an underdog in those final weeks has been greatly exaggerated). Some of these people will be the cable news networks eager to keep people interested in a race and treating every micro-movement in the polls as if it were “Breaking News” without putting any of those polls in context, others will be partisans from one side or the other whose job it is to push the agenda of their candidate. The reality, though, is that the odds are quite low that there will be a big enough change in the course of this campaign to make a major difference in the next fourteen days. So, unless pretty much every poll out there is wrong, and the odds of that are fairly low, it appears that Hillary Clinton is headed for victory. The only question is how big that victory will be, and what impact her win will have on the race for the Senate and House of Representatives.

Previous posts:

With Eleven Weeks To Go, Hillary Clinton Appears To Be Unstoppable
Ten Weeks Out: The Presidential Race Tightens A Bit, But Clinton Still Lead
With Nine Weeks To Go, Clinton’s Post-Convention Bounce Seems To Have Disappeared
With Eight Weeks To Go, A Tighter Race But It’s Still Advantage Clinton
Presidential Race Continues To Tighten With Seven Weeks To Go
Presidential Race Remains Tight Heading Into First Debate
With Five Weeks To Go, Clinton Appears To Have Momentum
Clinton Keeps Pulling Ahead Heading Into Second Presidential Debate
With Three Weeks To Go, Clinton’s Momentum Appears To Be Surging

Related Posts:

About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. Rafer Janders says:

    This is good news for John McCain.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 15 Thumb down 2

  2. Hal_10000 says:

    Hillary Clinton’s, meanwhile, was rocked once again by another round of email releases from Wikileaks,

    This is a definition of rocked with which I am not terribly familiar. Even as a vociferous Clinton critic, most of this crosses as standard campaign sausage-making and trying to play the base and the middle simultaneously. The most significant reveal came this morning, indicating that Obama knew Clinton was using a private server, which is more of an Obama scandal than a Clinton one.

    I have a feeling the polls will be a bit off this year. Not sure which way. But I keeping thinking it will either be a much closer night than expected or a blowout.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 19 Thumb down 1

  3. CSK says:

    @Hal_10000:

    If the election is very close, and Clinton wins, I think you can pretty much guarantee that the Trumpkins will become violent. They’ve been primed for it, and some of them have promised it.

    Actually, I think there’s a possibility of violence if Trump loses in a landslide.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 2

  4. C. Clavin says:

    …it appears that Hillary Clinton is headed for victory. The only question is how big that victory will be…

    The only thing THAT MATTERS is that Trump doesn’t win.
    As long as Trump is not allowed to appoint Supreme Court Justices or access to the Nuclear Codes…our Republic will be able to carry on unabated.
    (I’m still amazed/amused by his call to eliminate 70% of the regulations. Who needs the FDA?)
    Cheeto-Jesus is gonna whine and moan about a rigged election no matter the margin, because that’s what petulant children do.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 19 Thumb down 1

  5. Mikey says:

    538 has a neat little thing where you can adjust turnout percentage and party vote within different demographics to see how it would affect the election.

    Trump starts out pretty far down already, and it’s crazy how little movement towards the Democrat side makes his night even worse. For example, a shift of only 1% towards Democrat among non-college-educated whites moves North Carolina from Trump to Clinton.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  6. dxq says:

    I just left the deep, uneducated, racist south, after spending 40 years there. I’ve spent the last 8 years hearing variations of “That N*&&#% so-called “president”” etc. Literally every white person in the county I left is voting for Trump. The most common political bumper stickers I saw this summer were “TRUMP THAT BITCH” “LIFE IS A BITCH DON’T VOTE FOR ONE” “HILLARY FOR PRISON 2016” etc.

    Fortunately, most americans aren’t that stupid, and Hillary will be president.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 19 Thumb down 2

  7. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Hal_10000: I am shocked, SHOCKED I tell you, that Obama knew about Hillary’s private email server.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

  8. Pch101 says:

    The possible wild card in this election is the high proportion of poll respondents who don’t express a preference for the two major party candidates.

    Comparing polls during October of this year versus polls conducted during the first few weeks of October 2012 shows an average of about 3.5% fewer voters supporting one of the majors. The decisions that those supposed third-party and undecided voters make may surprise us (although I suspect that a lot of them just won’t vote at all, which should help Clinton by default.)

    Including Johnson and Stein in the surveys may throw the numbers off, as they weren’t particularly competitive candidates with solid bases of support when the decision was made to include them in the polling.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  9. dxq says:

    it’s been 3 weeks now since I’ve seen a confederate flag, or watched a tattooed teenager with her gut hanging out under a tube top beat her toddler in public, or seen an NRA t-shirt, or heard “Trump” and one or more racial slurs in the same sentence.

    I feel better already.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 3

  10. dxq says:

    I am shocked, SHOCKED I tell you, that Obama knew about Hillary’s private email server.

    The only attention I pay w/r/t hillary and the email server, is to notice if someone is taking that whole business seriously, and make a mental note about them.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 4

  11. MarkedMan says:

    Although the polls look good, I think it’s a mistake to assume they will translate to Election Day votes the way they have in the past. Around the world, in every case I can think of where racism and xenophobia has been on the ballot, it has out performed the polls, sometimes by very significant amounts

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

  12. Neil Hudelson says:

    @Hal_10000:

    I have a feeling the polls will be a bit off this year. Not sure which way. But I keeping thinking it will either be a much closer night than expected or a blowout.

    I’ll be very surprised if election-night results tighten in Trump’s direction. While it’s not impossible, it’s improbable. ABC’s newest tracking poll shows something along the lines of an 8-point fall for GOP “likely voters.” Even as Trump’s polling numbers stay semi-stable regarding who supports him over HIllary, the actual amount of people now willing to take the time and go to the polls to cast their vote for Hair Fuhrer is falling precipitously.

    Combine that with Hillary’s excellent GOTV, and energized Democratic Senate and House races in red states, I’m predicting Hillary beats the polls by 3 points on average.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

  13. CSK says:

    @dxq:

    Welcome to Massachusetts. 😀

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  14. Electroman says:

    @MarkedMan:

    Around the world, in every case I can think of where racism and xenophobia has been on the ballot, it has out performed the polls, sometimes by very significant amounts

    It’s hard for me to believe that you have already forgotten this year’s GOP Primary, where nothing of the sort happened.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  15. CSK says:

    @Neil Hudelson:

    Did you just invent “Hair Fuhrer”? If so, my deepest congratulations and hearty admiration.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0

  16. Tony W says:

    Trump, master of projection, now has more troubles

    inciting violence at his own rallies and blaming the Democrats? Just another day in Trump’s world.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

  17. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @dxq: pretty much.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1

  18. Neil Hudelson says:

    @CSK:

    I cannot take credit, but for the life of me I can’t remember who did invent that term. It’s a beaut.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

  19. Argon says:

    Only two weeks left. That in itself is a good thing.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  20. CSK says:

    @Neil Hudelson:

    It’s wonderful: Hair Fuhrer and his Storm Trumpers. Love it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

  21. Scott says:

    Here are my anecdotes from San Antonio:

    First day early voting yesterday broke records, up about 15%. Voter registration is significantly up also.

    Looking at the numbers at the individual early voting sites what stood out for me was the heavy voting in the lower income areas. Typically the higher income northern suburbs come out substantially for early voting and they did this time but seeing the other areas of the city early voting also may be a portent of things to come.

    Only one or two instances of people troubles at the polls.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

  22. Vendrell says:

    Meanwhile, Erick Erickson over at The Resurgent is now claiming that the election really is being stolen because Trump has secretly been a Clinton plant this whole election cycle.

    Besides the obvious attempt to delegitimize Hillary’s upcoming victory, it’s pretty “incredible” to see the complete lack of self-reflection over how this kind of conspiratorial crap has played a part in the GOP’s transformation into an active dumpster fire. Especially since he’s an avowed “Never-Trumper”, whose professional/personal life has been negatively impacted by Trump supporters.

    Just like after 2012, I’m sure the GOP will own up to their mistakes and take intelligent steps to fix their party… Oh wait

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 19 Thumb down 2

  23. CSK says:

    @Scott:

    Breitbart, that unimpeachable source of totally accurate and unbiased information, is “reporting” that Trump voters in San Antonio are seeing their votes for Trump changed to votes for Clinton by the Soros-owned voting machines.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 15 Thumb down 1

  24. C. Clavin says:

    @CSK:

    I think you can pretty much guarantee that the Trumpkins will become violent.

    I don’t know…I think they are mostly the Jenoses of the world…craven little un-educated men in their mother’s basements wearing onesies and eating Jello and stale Cheetos.
    I was convinced some red-neck was sure to come for Obama, and it just never came to pass. The Tea-Baggers, 8 years ago, were far more organized and funded and strident than the alt-right crowd is today. The alt-rights mascot is a frog fer chrisakes.
    http://www.dailystormer.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/DYgxcHC.png
    Plenty of threat. No action.
    Remember, Republicans are, for the most part, cowards. The biggest chest-thumper of them all, Dick Cheney, is an abject coward. And, predictably, he is patently unable to properly handle his penile prosthetic (weapon).
    No…they’ll all calm down during the 2-1/2 months between the election and inauguration and go back to their Mom’s basement and their Jello and Cheetos.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 2

  25. CSK says:

    @C. Clavin:

    I hope you’re right. But I’ve never seen a level of rage quite like this one. And remember that the candidate himself is not just encouraging violence, but predicting it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

  26. Scott says:

    @CSK: I saw something similar on Facebook but it was Tarrant County. All BS of course. Actually, SA is pretty laid back, bipartisan, if not non-partisan. Especially for a population of 1.5M.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  27. C. Clavin says:

    @Hal_10000:

    I have a feeling the polls will be a bit off this year. Not sure which way.

    @Neil Hudelson:

    I’ll be very surprised if election-night results tighten in Trump’s direction. While it’s not impossible, it’s improbable.

    Nat Silver currently has Trump at 43.3% of the popular vote, in what he admits is a conservative model. It wouldn’t take much for Trump to show up down around McGovern’s 37%.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  28. al-Ameda says:

    @Vendrell and CSK:

    Meanwhile, Erick Erickson over at The Resurgent is now claiming that the election really is being stolen because Trump has secretly been a Clinton plant this whole election cycle.
    and …
    Breitbart, that unimpeachable source of totally accurate and unbiased information, is “reporting” that Trump voters in San Antonio are seeing their votes for Trump changed to votes for Clinton by the Soros-owned voting machines.

    You just can’t make it up anymore.
    I’m hoping that Michele Bachmann will swing by and take these people to Area 51 for a debriefing by Tom Cruise and subsequent repatriation to North Korea.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  29. Blue Galangal says:

    @dxq: Those “both sides do it” types, and those who haul out the latest O’Keefe video as some kind of “evidence” that HRC’s supporters are crazed violence-mongering lunatics ought to take a drive through the neighborhood that surrounds my workplace here in Cincinnati. It’s largely African American, and (oddly enough! /sarcasm) isn’t high crime and consists mostly of single family houses lived in by people who work at the hospitals, university, and other places around here.

    A week ago some idiot paid to put up a TRUMP billboard on the main drag of this neighborhood. To their credit, no one’s defaced it yet.

    Over the past two months, several times a week, there has been a big old truck draped in Confederate flags with a NObama sticker, many Trump stickers, and a prison Hillary sticker that drives – slowly – down the main drag and back up it again. I’ve seen it both on my way home from work and on Saturday afternoons when there were football games at the university. And I mean “draped” – there are flags sticking up from the four corners of the truck bed, plus a flag on the tailgate and a flag stickers on the rear window.

    You tell me who’s trying to instigate violence. (The first time I saw it I actually thought it might be James O’Keefe.)

    Fortunately, so far, everyone’s either sitting in traffic or pointing and laughing, and so the deplorables who’re trolling for martyrdom have to slink away and try again.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 17 Thumb down 1

  30. Gromitt Gunn says:

    Good turnout here on Day 1 of Early Voting. I plan to go down on Friday.

    http://www.theeagle.com/news/local/brazos-county-sees-big-turnout-for-first-day-of-early/article_8359c972-9a6e-11e6-ac3b-3b2f06149481.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  31. JKB says:

    Damn Southerners and their support for Trump

    I am so proud to be out here, as an African American, just supporting Donald Trump and his incredible movement,” said Laverne Elliot, who admits she’s voting for a Republican Presidential candidate for the first time in her life, “I spent 99.5 percent of my years being a loyal Democrat, but we got nothing out of it, and African Americans have been pimped for their vote, they take for granted that they can get the vote.”

    From reports the turnout looks like it will be larger than recent history. But so few turnout for Hillary or Democrat events, guess they are saving their strength for making it to the polls? We can presume the ten, twenty thousand turning up a Trump event won’t make it to the polls.

    So the surveys with strangers calling up and asking if you support Trump, in the wake of documented Hillary supporter violence and theft, must be entirely accurate. There is just no upside to telling a random caller you support Trump and lots of potential downsides. So, I believe we’ll have to wait until the actual voting to know.

    I do believe, win or lose, there are going to be some surprising Trump enclaves that show up.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 15

  32. MBunge says:

    Here’s a few things to consider.

    The polls were pretty much dead on in 2008. Most everyone had Obama winning by about 7 and that’s what happened. Nobody had McCain winning but nobody had Obama winning by 10 or 12, either.

    In 2012, most of the polls had Obama winning but just about all of them predicted a very close race, which Obama ended up winning by almost 4 points. A few had Romney winning but I don’t think anyone had Obama winning by 6 or 7 points. They were bunched together with a tie or a narrow win for either candidate, so they were quite far off the actual result.

    There is much greater division in polling this time around, with fairly credible polls projecting everything from a virtual dead head to a decisive Hillary win to a Hillary blowout. Somebody’s going to be wiping egg off their face.

    Also, an assumption many people including political pros have made about this election is that turnout is going to be down/low. Two unpopular candidates…yes, Hillary is unpopular…and ugly, negative campaigns tends to produce that result. But more people watched the debates this year than any Presidential election since 1992, with Trump vs. Clinton III getting more viewers than any debate in 2008 or 2012. That does not seem to fit with a low turnout election.

    And of course, Brexit and the Democratic primary in Michigan, where FiveThirtyEight.com had Bernie Sanders behind by 21 points and he won by 1.5.

    Just sayin’.

    Mike

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 10

  33. C. Clavin says:

    I do believe, win or lose, there are going to be some surprising Trump enclaves that show up.

    Given all the other things you believe…I’m not surprised.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

  34. dxq says:

    Based on what I’m seeing over at Breitbart, there’s going to be a serious purge of Collaborators and “Cucks” after the election. Every other comment is about how Paul Ryan has worked to give “Hussein” everything he ever wanted. My favorite term for Obama from the comment section there today is “The Kenyan Chimp”.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

  35. PJ says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    I am shocked, SHOCKED I tell you, that Obama knew about Hillary’s private email server.

    Issa is setting up impeachment hearings as we speak!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

  36. PJ says:

    @MBunge:

    And of course, Brexit and the Democratic primary in Michigan, where FiveThirtyEight.com had Bernie Sanders behind by 21 points and he won by 1.5.

    Please stop beating your dead horses. They are dead.

    There were a lot of Brexit polls with leave leading.
    In the last two weeks before the referendum, leave was leading in 14 of the 26 polls released, with one tied. The problem with Brexit polling was that people didn’t believe that leaving was in the lead, despite all the polling showing it was. So, if we want to compare that to something in this election it would be Trump, his followers, and a number of Bernie or Busters. But, importantly, not Bernie Sanders.

    Here’s an article about why the polling in Michigan was so wrong. There are more if you google.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

  37. MBunge says:

    @PJ:

    And I’m sure there will be plenty of articles written about why the polling was wrong if Trump wins.

    Look, if you could stop being a sheep for two seconds it might be possible to do something other than reflexively attack anyone you think is saying something you don’t like.

    The available evidence is that Trump is going to lose and lose decisively. But that evidence also says Trump is not going to get blown out and that he still has a legitimate but damn small chance of winning. I thought the whole point of the “reality-based community” is that our discussion and thinking be based on, you know, reality. On the remote chance Trump wins, it would be great if people like you could respond with something other than a complete mental and emotional meltdown, but I guess that’s too much to ask.

    Mike

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 13

  38. C. Clavin says:

    @al-Ameda:

    because Trump has secretly been a Clinton plant this whole election cycle

    JKB is clearly still harboring a man-crush on the Cheeto-Jesus…but I wonder…Has Trump given up?
    At his speech in Gettysburg on Saturday, the anti-thesis of Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address, Trump promised to sue his accusers “after the election is over”. That sure sounds like he has resigned himself to the facts.
    Then, with a scant two weeks to go, in a race he clearly losing, he spent today promoting his golf course in the Miami area, and tomorrow will be at his DC Hotel opening.
    On top of that, in October he only gave $2,600 to his own campaign. Clinton kicked in $36,000 to hers.
    Even Trump, who has proven himself to be colossally stupid and incompetent, should be able to see what’s happening.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

  39. michael reynolds says:

    @JKB:

    Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Winston Churchill combined never had the rallies that Hitler pulled off.

    Fascists like rallies. Normal people don’t.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 4

  40. Gustopher says:

    I think we are all underestimating the influence of Scott Adams, of Dilbert fame, and his support of Trump. Look around your office — there are Dilbert calendars and mugs everywhere, and each of them represents a Trump voter.

    Also, it is a well known fact that Cat Scratch Fever is a real disease spread by real cats, and that it causes people who own cats to prefer political candidates who most closely resemble their cats. Who owns the most orange tabby cats? Women. And women will turn out for Trump in droves. Trump is grabbing them by the felines.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

  41. PJ says:

    @MBunge:

    And I’m sure there will be plenty of articles written about why the polling was wrong if Trump wins.

    Again, polling wasn’t wrong in the UK, the result was close, and leave was leading in more polls than remain. Michigan was one primary, for some reason you don’t care about all the ones that got it right… But again, senseless violence against dead horses…

    Look, if you could stop being a sheep for two seconds it might be possible to do something other than reflexively attack anyone you think is saying something you don’t like.

    Nah. I just attack you.

    The available evidence is that Trump is going to lose and lose decisively. But that evidence also says Trump is not going to get blown out and that he still has a legitimate but damn small chance of winning.

    He has a chance, but so have also McMullin and Johnson (if they win Utah and New Mexico respectively and neither Trump or Clinton gets 270 electoral votes and the House decides to pick the nominee with the third most EV:s). The only one who doesn’t have a chance? Jill Stein.
    Also, voters are more likely to vote for a winner than a loser. While some of those voting for Clinton will look at the polls and stay home, a lot more of Trump voters will do so, because the polls show him losing.

    I thought the whole point of the “reality-based community” is that our discussion and thinking be based on, you know, reality.

    Which is why you have been selectively posting poll results? To, I’d assume, support your own reality?

    On the remote chance Trump wins, it would be great if people like you could respond with something other than a complete mental and emotional meltdown, but I guess that’s too much to ask.

    Mental and emotional meltdown? Do you have a mirror? Look in it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 2

  42. C. Clavin says:

    @michael reynolds:

    Fascists like rallies. Normal people don’t.

    +11

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 2

  43. Just 'nutha ig'rant cracker says:

    “because Trump has secretly been a Clinton plant this whole election cycle.”

    I remember this was a “wouldn’t it be wild if we found out later that…” snark among people I knew who were Hillary supporters. Who knew it would take on a life of its own?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  44. JKB says:

    @michael reynolds: Fascists like rallies. Normal people don’t.

    Somehow, I don’t think you would have said that around this time in 2008.

    Or have you blocked out the Greek columns in the arena?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 8

  45. C. Clavin says:

    @C. Clavin:
    Also of note…according to Fortune, for the first 6 months of the year bookings at Trumps hotels were off 60%. (snark) Now I’m not a economic wiz like Guarneri (close snark)…but I’m thinking that’s not good.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  46. Neil Hudelson says:

    @JKB:

    “National Conventions” are now “Rallies?”

    Well, frak, in that case Hillary’s ‘rally’ beat out Trumps’ ‘rally’ by quite a few million.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

  47. michael reynolds says:

    @JKB:

    1) Set decoration does not equal rally.

    2) I have never attended a rally in my life, despite supporting Obama and now Hillary.

    Like I said: some people enjoy being part of a mass of like-minded people all sharing the same rages and hates, thinking as one, raising their hands as one, giddy at the prospect of being led and surrendering their individuality to the hive mind. . . . and normal people find the whole notion somewhere on the spectrum between ‘pointless’ and ‘disturbing.’

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

  48. Pch101 says:

    @PJ:

    Trying to reason with Bunge is akin to the teaching the proverbial pig to sing. It ain’t gonna happen.

    Thar being said, the Brexit polling fooled a lot of pundits because they focused on the spread while ignoring the high percentage of undecideds. As it turns out, the typical undecided voter was often of the same sort of mindset that was to be found among Leave supporters.

    Unfortunately, we have even more undecideds in some of these presidential opinion polls, and many observers here are making a similar error in judgment by focusing on the spread while ignoring the uncertainty that comes with that. And I suspect that a lot of undecideds lean right, which bodes poorly for Clinton.

    I still expect Clinton to win the popular vote, but the wide variations in polls and the high percentage of voters who are not committed to either major candidate should make one wary of what the spread will be. Fortunately, the electoral vote will determine the outcome, and there is less cause to be concerned about that.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 3

  49. Blue Galangal says:

    @dxq: One of the weirdest things about this cycle – and I say that with full awareness of how high the weirdness bar is this time – has been reading the comments section at RedState. It’s like a liberal echo chamber over there on some of the articles. Even pro-Trump “let’s bite the bullet” articles are being overrun with negative comments, including by their ordinarily reflexively anti-“libtard” moderators.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  50. C. Clavin says:

    @michael reynolds:

    I have never attended a rally in my life

    I actually attended a Klan Rally in 1980 just west of Ft. Pierce, FL. Hoods, 15′ Cross Burning, and all.
    I was in broadcast journalism at the time.
    Pretty f’ing freaky…I had just moved from my home state of Vermont a couple months earlier. What a mind fwck that was…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  51. C. Clavin says:

    @JKB:

    Greek columns in the arena?

    What is with the fascination for these columns? It makes no sense. None.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

  52. JR says:

    JKB post is an example of why Democrats win presidential elections and Republicans don’t. Big events don’t amount to ****. The best way to reach new voters is through smaller gatherings. Big rallies in fact is just a waste of money.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

  53. Gustopher says:

    @C. Clavin: the columns, and esembling heones in front of the White House, showed how presumptuous, arrogant, and — dare I say –uppity that (black) man was.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  54. Hal_10000 says:

    @C. Clavin:

    I was reading a critique of Silver the other day that said he’s too conservative in his projections because he’s not wrong enough.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  55. gVOR08 says:

    @al-Ameda:
    Made me look .

    Trump decided to get into the Republican race, build up an online army of trolls to make it look like he had massive support, then intentionally sabotage the race to hand it to his friend Hillary Clinton.

    This would be the same Erick spawn of Erick that I felt some sympathy for when James posted on his health issues a couple weeks ago.

    I thought Republicans were supposed to be the party of personal responsibility. Is there a one of them that recognizes his own responsibility for enabling Trump?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

  56. gVOR08 says:

    @Hal_10000: IIRC after 2012 Silver admitted he had calculated a 99% chance of an Obama win but reported 90% because he threw in an arbitrary ‘what if I have this all wrong’ factor. Comparing 538 to Wang I wonder if he’s still doing it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

  57. Jen says:

    @JR: Spot on.

    They are an ENORMOUS waste of money, from several directions. One, the outright cost of renting the facility, security, renting porta potties if needed, etc. They are also a waste of money in that they eat up huge amounts of staff time. Finally, they are bad on ROI, because you’re basically reaching True Believers who are already in your corner.

    Anyone who believes that large rally attendance will lead to high supporter turnout in the general election is an idiot.

    “That’s not how this works. That’s not how *any* of this works.” <—I have been quoting this a lot this election cycle. I think it's a car insurance commercial?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

  58. An Interested Party says:

    @MBunge: Here’s one more thing to consider…Hillary is going to win–guaranteed…just sayin’…and the person wiping egg off his face will be you…

    Or have you blocked out the Greek columns in the arena?

    I don’t recall Obama ever arguing that his political opponents should be put in jail nor attacking the media because they have the temerity to report on him…those are the attributes of fascists…like Trump…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 2

  59. JR says:

    @Jen: Yeah, it is bad allocation of resources and time and you would think the GOP would have learned their lesson about this in 2012…..but here we are.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  60. Mikey says:

    @JKB:

    Somehow, I don’t think you would have said that around this time in 2008.

    Well, the major difference between 2008 and now is there are actual fascists at Trump’s rallies.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  61. Hal_10000 says:

    @gVOR08:

    I think he still is. In his book (which is quite good) Silver talks about the “wet bias” in weather forecasts — i.e., weathermen tend to bump up the likelihood of rain so that people don’t complain when it rains 10% of the time when there was a 10% chance. I suspect he is doing the same thing this year. But I also suspect he is aware that the statistical analysis of the polls would easily miss a *systematic* bias in which they are polling too far one way or the other. So, like the poker player he is, he’s hedging his bets.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  62. Hal_10000 says:

    PS. Four years ago, I wrote on my personal blog about the analysis of the polls and specifically about the 2000 election, where RCP was arguing we were looking at a Bush landslide. That analysis was off for reasons that could cause any election to be off — Gore moved late and pollsters way overestimate Nader’s vote share. That’s definitely a possibility any year, but especially this one which I predict this election night will be more surprising than the last two.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  63. Kylopod says:

    @gVOR08: @Hal_10000: When Nate Silver and Sam Wang were having their nerdfight in 2014 over who was the better forecaster, I think Silver struck a devastating blow when he pointed out that in the 2010 Senate race between Harry Reid and Sharron Angle, which Reid ended up winning by a comfortable margin, Wang had given Angle a 99.99% chance of winning. Silver of course had given her an 83% chance–but that doesn’t look so terrible. He was saying essentially that Reid had a 1/6 chance of victory, which is a reasonable estimate of the chance of a big upset, something which happens on occasion. I think one of Wang’s weaknesses is a tendency toward overconfidence in his forecasts. You can argue that Silver has the opposite problem of overcautiousness, but it has prevented embarrassing blunders of that order.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

  64. anjin-san says:

    @C. Clavin:

    I am pretty sure it was a hat tip to the birth of democracy. No wonder JKB, Jenos and the rest of the Soggy Bottom Boys are not digging them…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  65. dxq says:

    when you’re complaining about the stage decorations I doubt you know how absurd you look.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  66. JR says:

    @Hal_10000: Not really since third party share of the vote has been declining in recent polls. Most of the people backing Johnson and Stein are breaking for HRC and there aren’t enough undecideds left to make this a close race. The only way it will be close is if Clinton can’t turn out her supporters and early voting numbers say that she should have no enthusiasm problem

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  67. Matt says:

    @C. Clavin: I find the whole pepe thing kind of hilarious. I watch over the areas of the internet that are now being called the alt right (stormfront 9gag 4chan etc) and pepe would occasionally pop up usually as a “feels” character sad over something. After the media started pushing pepe as being the alt right mascot that is when I saw a sudden MASSIVE rise in it’s usage. It’s too bad as the original pepe was used for years by various groups for various things.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  68. Tyrell says:

    News: Clinton foundation executive seeking immediate asylum in Russia !

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 5

  69. Kylopod says:

    @Tyrell: Well, that marks the second time I’ve caught you passing along an Internet hoax that was debunked on Snopes.

    http://www.snopes.com/eric-braverman-seeks-asylum-in-russia/

    Do you ever learn anything? Or are you like the Energizer Bunny of BS? Seriously.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

  70. JKB says:

    This is rather amusing, in an intolerant DemProg way

    A homeowner took to a message board Sunday to complain about her neighbor’s sign supporting the Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump. The anonymous homeowner said his or her family lived in a liberal part of Northern Virginia and were putting their house up for sale. The homeowner feared that the Trump sign would scare away potential buyers, and asked on the message board whether it was appropriate to ask the neighbor to take down the sign.

    So if Trump wins the election will DC and its suburbs accept the election results? Or might they go all Wisconsin Democrat and occupy the Capitol?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 8

  71. Neil Hudelson says:

    @JKB:

    Awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww,
    someone posted a complaint on a message board, on the internet of all places (!), and it hurt your fee fees?

    You should probably support the megalomaniacal billionaire who sues any person that ever whispers something bad about him. That way those darn “demprog” bullies in northern Virginia will learn something about free speech.

    Wait, what?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

  72. JKB says:

    @Neil Hudelson:

    As usual, you miss the point. Apparently, some in Liberal areas of Northern Virginia are afraid that other Liberals even suspecting that a Trump supporter lives in their neighborhood will have a negative economic impact upon them.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 4

  73. Jen says:

    I’ve seen several homes for sale in our area that have Trump signs out front. I actually did wonder if that was a good idea–the most important thing to do when selling a home is to make it as tastefully generic as possible.

    I think the homeowner probably has a point, but instead of going about it this way, why doesn’t he or she just wait two weeks and put the house on the market then?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

  74. CSK says:

    @Jen:

    That startles me. Wouldn’t a real estate agent discourage that sort of thing?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  75. dxq says:

    @Hal_10000:

    I was reading a critique of Silver the other day that said he’s too conservative in his projections because he’s not wrong enough.

    Well, he does make less slippery predictions than, say,

    But I keeping thinking it will either be a much closer night than expected or a blowout.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  76. al-Alameda says:

    @Jen:

    I’ve seen several homes for sale in our area that have Trump signs out front. I actually did wonder if that was a good idea–the most important thing to do when selling a home is to make it as tastefully generic as possible.

    If I was selling my house there is no chance that I would have any such sign on my property. Why would I want to negatively affect a sale with a potential value of hundreds of thousands of dollars?

    Up here in Northern California (in the far reaches of Bay Area) in the country suburbs where I reside, the political spectrum is roughly the equivalent of:

    Yeah, Right = Sarah Palin
    Somewhat Further Right = Mitt Romney
    Center Right = Hillary Clinton
    Center Left = Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders
    Further Left = Jill Stein

    And … unfortunately, yes, there was a sighting of a MAWG (middle aged white guy) who was spray painting (defacing) some signs of the center-left local candidate.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  77. Jen says:

    @CSK: You would think so, but either the agents in this area don’t remark on it or the homeowners ignore the advice. If it were just one house I’d write it off as quirkiness but it’s definitely a higher number than that, I can think of three homes for sale in the area that I regularly drive by like this.

    @al-Alameda: This is part of what is so baffling to me–this area is actually pretty Republican (rural-ish NH), but we are close enough to the seacoast that the area is growing, and most of the new purchasers are from more liberal areas looking for either more land or lower house costs. In other words, trending Democrat.

    Having a political sign out front–any kind of political sign–seems like a bad move to me if you’re trying to sell. If it’s a neighbor, I don’t think there’s too much someone can do other than wait until the election is over.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  78. Bob@Youngstown says:

    @JKB: Very occasionally the blind squirrel finds a nut.

    I tend to understand the homeowners concern, but even politely asking her neighbor to remove the Trump sign may evoke unnecessary conflict.

    I personally have had to reassess my perception of some of my acquaintances as a result of their (apparent) unqualified support of Trump. To those that I have asked to engage in a calm discussion of their political persuasion, I generally get an immediate Limbaugh/Breitbart cascade of conspiracies and outright falsehoods. It’s at that point that I disengage because it become obvious to me that they are unwilling or incapable of have a sane, respectful discussion.

    When moving to a new neighborhood, it’s really a plus to have neighbors that you can be friendly with, share a beer etc.

    Closed-minded neighbors I would really prefer to avoid. So, were I a house hunter, I’d probably just drive on by. And that is a problem for the person trying to sell.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

  79. Neil Hudelson says:

    @JKB:

    As usual, you miss the point. Apparently, some in Liberal areas of Northern Virginia are afraid that other Liberals even suspecting that a Trump supporter lives in their neighborhood will have a negative economic impact upon them.

    You’re original comment:

    So if Trump wins the election will DC and its suburbs accept the election results? Or might they go all Wisconsin Democrat and occupy the Capitol?

    Wanna try again, sparky?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

  80. dxq says:

    the GOP House is going to spend all its time on investigations of hillary.

    Thanks, America, for electing these worthless shitheads.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  81. Blue Galangal says:

    @dxq: The takeaway:

    “The smart course for them is to keep it on issues; the dumb course is to scandal-monger,” said Paul Begala, a former Bill Clinton adviser who now works with the pro-Hillary Clinton super PAC Priorities USA. “These days you rarely lose money betting on Republicans being stupid.”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  82. C. Clavin says:

    @JKB:

    a Trump supporter lives in their neighborhood will have a negative economic impact upon them.

    Sure…Having someone who supports sexual assault living in your neighborhood, isn’t much different than having an actual sexual offender living in your neighborhood. I mean…it’s a slippery slope right? If you think its a good thing…then you think it’s a good thing.
    Can you explain to us all what it is about sexual assault that appeals to you so much? Do you touch yourself inappropriately when you hear Trump talk about groping women? When he calls women pigs, do you get a little chubby down there? When he talks about fwcking his daughter do you think about doing the same to yours?
    You are a pathetic human being…and anyone who thinks Trump should be President has serious mental health issues. Yes JKB…that means you…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 3

  83. CSK says:

    @Jen

    The thing about having a Trump sign on the lawn of a house you’re trying to sell is that it would discourage not only Democratic-leaning buyers but many Republican ones as well.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  84. CSK says:

    Speaking of Trump being nuts, William Weld yesterday issued a statement that Trump is too crazy to be president: http://www.johnsonweld.com

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  85. Just 'nutha ig'rant cracker says:

    @Blue Galangal: Ahh, but most people’s stupid scandals are the GOP base’s important issues. Witness Jenos, JKB, Drew/Guarnari, bill, etc.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1

  86. Just 'nutha ig'rant cracker says:

    @CSK: Well… if I were purchasing, I’d still take a look at the house, but if I made an offer, it would be a low ball with contingencies. No sense in taking the risk that the seller doesn’t try to emulate Trump as well as supporting him.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

  87. Bob@Youngstown says:

    @Just ‘nutha ig’rant cracker: Curb appeal is the first thing a buyer reacts to, even if it’s a sign in front of someone else’s curb.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  88. al-Ameda says:

    @gVOR08:

    I thought Republicans were supposed to be the party of personal responsibility. Is there a one of them that recognizes his own responsibility for enabling Trump?

    These days Republicans like to portray themselves as victimized in most aspects of their lives by Liberals. I can see no special qualities of personal responsibility (individually or collectively) in Republicans, certainly no more or less than I see in any Democratic Party member.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  89. CSK says:

    @Just ‘nutha ig’rant cracker:

    Yes, indeed.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  90. MarkedMan says:

    @Matt: u@Matt: It’s too bad as the original pepe was used for years by various groups for various things.

    There’s a podcast, “Reply All” that investigated the Pepe = racist transition. It turns out it preceded trump. When Pepe started to get popular the 4chan (?) guys resented it so deliberately put him in front of gas chamber imagery, klan gatherings, etc so they could take him back as their own.

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  91. An Interested Party says:

    Thanks, America, for electing these worthless shitheads.

    Well, when those same kind of shitheads tried to investigate Bill Clinton into oblivion they actually lost seats in the midterm elections of 1998 so we’ll see if history repeats itself…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  92. Matt says:

    @MarkedMan: Pepe first popped up a bit over 10 years ago. He was on reditt (which some 4chan peeps hate with a passion) and other forums long before anyone at 4 chan used him. He was a chillax character used for a variety of things including feels threads. There were some using him in KKK pictures and stuff but that didn’t take off till the media jumped all over it. Basically overnight there was a huge increase in the use of Pepe in hate imagery.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  93. Matt says:

    @Matt: I went looking to try to backup my assertion with some citations and I found an interview with Pepe’s creator confirming it was created in 2005.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/its-not-easy-being-green/499892/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  94. JKB says:

    Turns out the October Surprise was initiated near 8 years ago by the Dems themselves.

    The Obamacare collapse which just didn’t make it past the election, even though the architect has said, the “Affordable” Care Act is impacting just as it was planned.

    Is Minnesota coming into play?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 5

  95. gVOR08 says:

    @Hal_10000:

    In his book (which is quite good) Silver…

    Read it a few years ago. Yes, very good. Fascinating autobiography, but also, to my mind, a neat philosophical treatise on what we can know and what we can’t. Very good, non mathematical explanation of “Bayesian”. The example he uses is finding a pair of briefs in your underwear drawer when you only wear boxers. What then are the Bayesian and non-Bayesian odds your wife is cheating?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  96. DrDaveT says:

    @JKB:

    The Obamacare collapse […]

    Hee hee. Stop it man; you’re killing me.

    Are you here all week?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  97. Just 'nutha ig'rant cracker says:

    @al-Ameda: Or, more briefly: no.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  98. Tyrell says:

    @JKB: Obama Care: “It’s crazy.” Bill Clinton.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 5

  99. Kylopod says:

    @Tyrell: No, that isn’t what Bill Clinton said.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  100. MarkedMan says:

    @Matt:

    Basically overnight there was a huge increase in the use of Pepe in hate imagery.

    On the Reply All piece there was a brief interview with the creator who seemed pretty laissez faire about the use of his character with hate group imagery. He didn’t support it but basically felt that all art/society was about adapting things for your own use. This was probably before the explosion of hate group use you mentioned. More recently, I saw that he was actively speaking out against the usage. Perhaps it just became overwhelming.

    FWIW, my teenage son was arguing that since the original intent was not racist, the 4chan guys couldn’t make it so. My counter example was the swastika. When we lived in Shanghai we were in the trendy and young Jing An temple district. As is not unusual on Zen structures the ancient religious symbol of the swastika was integral to the temple and repeated on businesses and structures throughout the area. So its tradition is association with a peaceful religion. But the Nazi’s got it, modified it a bit, and in the west it is irredeemably associated with heinous bigotry and crimes. It doesn’t matter what the origin was, if you wear a swastika in the US or Europe it is going to be interpreted as sanctioning those atrocities.

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  101. Matt says:

    @MarkedMan: That goes counter to the vast collection of interviews on various news sites where he states he’s attempting to get the character back from the alt right people. Just a quick google shows +10 articles of him talking about how it was never supposed to be a hateful image and he doesn’t want it associated with that.

    See I disagree strongly as the swastika existed for at least 11,000 years before Hitler came along modified it and used it for a few years. So what you’re arguing is that despite it’s usage as good luck symbol for +11000 years it’s EBIL BECAUSE A MODIFIED VERSION WAS USED BY DEM DAR NAZIS!!!..

    This is part of the reason why I have little faith in humanity.

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  102. Mikey says:

    @Matt:

    So what you’re arguing is that despite it’s usage as good luck symbol for +11000 years it’s EBIL BECAUSE A MODIFIED VERSION WAS USED BY DEM DAR NAZIS!!!

    Yes, a symbol that had a certain meaning for thousands of years can, in fact, come to symbolize evil in a very short time. Any symbol, no matter how benign and extensive its history, will be irreparably damaged by close association with a movement that was responsible for the genocidal slaughter of six million people and an attempt at world domination that resulted in the deaths of tens of millions more.

    The original meaning was irretrievably lost when it was used by the Nazis. It will forever be linked to the Holocaust.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0