Movement For Romney In Three Key Swing States?

October 5, 2012

Comments

Polling from two separate pollsters shows Mitt Romney appearing to make gains in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida in the wake of Wednesday’s debate.

First up there’s We Ask America:

Next up there are a trio of polls from Rasmussen which show us the following:

Ohio — Obama 50% Romney 49%
Virginia — Romney 49% Obama 48%
Florida — Romney 49% Obama 47%

All the usual caveats about Rasmussen apply, of course, but it’s noteworthy that these results are replicated for the most part in the WAA poll, which has been fairly reliable so far this year. Not surprisingly, these results bring major changes to the RCP Averages for all three states. Ohio, where Obama had previously had a lead over five points in the poll average, the President now has a +3.2 point lead. In Virginia, it’s down to +0.4. And in Florida it is tied. Looking over at the national polls, there’s no real evidence of movement in either of the national tracking polls right now, but that’s generally to be expected since we’ve only had one full polling night since the debate and those polls average their results over multiple days (3 days for Rasmussen and 7 days for Gallup). If there is movement there, though, we should begin to see it early next week.

16 responses to “Movement For Romney In Three Key Swing States?”

nitpicker

October 5, 2012 at 2:09 pm

“We Ask America” has a pro-Republican house effect similar to Rasmussen’s. Just saying.
PJ

October 5, 2012 at 2:39 pm

In today’s Gallup, Obama has gained a point and now has a 5 point lead, in the two days since the debate Romney has failed to gain any points.
if there is any movement due to the debate, it won’t be much at all.
Smooth Jazz

October 5, 2012 at 2:54 pm

“All the usual caveats about Rasmussen apply, of course,”

Yeah Right, “All the usual caveats about Rasmussen apply” probably doesn’t include the caveat that Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster for the 2004 & 2008 Presidential elections, certainly much more accurate from the left wing juiced up polls from PPP/NY Times/NBC/CNN/CBS, et al that you cosider credible. I’ve never seen you mention any caveats when you cite DailyKOS/SEUI/PPP polls for example, as if those polls are more representative than Rasmussen. LMAO. “Usual Caveats”. That is rich!
mantis

October 5, 2012 at 3:06 pm

@Smooth Jazz:

2010: Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate

That’s why there must be caveats. Rasmussen has seriously reliability issues due to its polling model, as has been explained to you repeatedly.

Moron.
Smooth Jazz

October 5, 2012 at 3:43 pm

Hey BOZO, Tag you’re it: Rasmussen: Most Accurate Pollster in 2008/2004

http://www.kenkrogue.com/random-musings/romney-tied-with-obama-says-rasmussen-most-accurate-pollster-in-20082004-3-on-forbes-com/

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

You say FI, I say FO. 2004 & 2008 were Presidential elections which is what 2012 is. And I don’t take explanations from anyone from a far left blog. At any rate, my point is as follows: If Rasmussen comes with caveats, then PPP & NY Times & NBC polls should come with caveats as well because they are sponsored by left wing entities with dubious records. Especially PPP, the Daily KOS pollster with obvious skin in the game for Obama.
stonetools

October 5, 2012 at 3:49 pm

My guess is that after people absorb the good unemployment news , the Romney post-election bounce will be erased. On to the vice presidential debates!
mattb

October 5, 2012 at 4:07 pm

Next up there are a trio of polls from Rasmussen which show us the following:
Ohio — Obama 50% Romney 49%
Virginia — Romney 49% Obama 48%
Florida — Romney 49% Obama 47%

The Virginia and Florida ones are flips from the previous Rasmussen polling cycle. Ohio, on the other hand, has held steady for two Ras polls with Obama’s 1% lead.
john personna

October 5, 2012 at 4:12 pm

Team Obama just has to press back, illustrating the etch-a-sketch play.

Seriously, can Mitt pretend to be Barack in the last weeks and win on that basis?
Smooth Jazz

October 5, 2012 at 4:35 pm

“My guess is that after people absorb the good unemployment news , the Romney post-election bounce will be erased.”

LOL, You Liberals are reduced to hoping and praying now, as a bumbling & delirious Obama tries to recover from his drubbing the other night by relying on numbers that, at best, are a wash and murky. Meanwhile, in the real world, this should concern you even more:

Voter Turnout Modeling Predicts Big Ohio Trouble for Obama:

http://pjmedia.com/blog/ohio-poll-analyst-voter-turnout-modeling-predicts-big-ohio-trouble-for-obama/

ttp://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-shocker-gop-closes-early-voting-gap-boosting-romney/article/2509838

And you can shoot the messenger PJ Media as a right wing blog all you want, a designation PJ Media will happily concede. The question is the message right: That registration in Predominately Dem counties in OH is WAY down from 2008. That is a dangerous omen for Obama and one that the bogus OH Obama up 10 polls that this blog used as a basis to declare the race over certainly didn’t capture.

Can’t wait for the next MSNBC/NY Times/CNN poll of OH: Obama by 30.LMAO.
Curtis

October 5, 2012 at 4:40 pm

The scary thing for Romney supporters is that even the Florida, Ohio, Virginia trifecta isn’t enough to win without flipping another state that is leaning even more heavily towards Obama. He’d have to have New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, or Nevada go along and not lose North Carolina.

That is one heck of an inside straight he is drawing for at this point.

It will take a few more days to figure out how much of a bounce Romney got from the first debate, and then Obama will probably bounce a tick based on today’s job numbers. And much like many people loved Ryan’s speech at the convention and then the next couple of days focused on nothing but the lies therein, the media coverage of the debate is turning to focus on Romney’s distortions of his platform before Wednesday night.

So I am not yet nervous as an Obama supporter.
mantis

October 5, 2012 at 5:47 pm

@Smooth Jazz:

If Rasmussen comes with caveats, then PPP & NY Times & NBC polls should come with caveats as well because they are sponsored by left wing entities with dubious records.

No, because Rasmussen’s problems are due to its unique methods and are well documented. You just assume there is something wrong with other polls, without actually showing any evidence.

And I don’t take explanations from anyone from a far left blog.

If you think Nate Silver is a far left blog, you have already shown how little you understand about this topic. Guess who predicted 2008 more accurately than any pollster? Nate Silver, that’s who. He correctly predicted the presidential race in 49 of 50 states and correctly predicted every senate race.

Not only that, but he was accurate all along the way, from the primaries where he correctly predicted Obama’s big win in North Carolina, which most pollsters had as a much closer race, on down the line.

Rasmussen, on the other hand, is all over the place. He just so happens to get his presidential poll in line with the average just before election day. And if you don’t like Nate Silver explaining what is wrong with Rasmussen’s polls, despite Silver’s incredible track record, you can listen to someone else if you like. The web is full of critiques of his methods.
Anderson

October 5, 2012 at 6:06 pm

The WAA polls were robopolls, i.e. skipped cellphone-only voters.

I fully expect some downside for Obama, but these polls aren’t going to convince me. The Ohio result in particular looks dubious. We should know by Tuesday or so.
Anderson

October 5, 2012 at 6:13 pm

@mantis: Also, the “far-left” Silver actually predicted the GOP would do even *better* than it did in the 2010 election.
Stonetools

October 5, 2012 at 6:58 pm

@stonetools:

Ugh, that should be post debate bounce.
Just Me

October 5, 2012 at 8:06 pm

I think Silver is pretty far left, but he analyses the polls fairly.

I think Romney is probably going to take Florida, but I have strong doubts about Virginia and Ohio.

Also, when it comes to swing states Romney has to win all of them-while Obama only has to win some of them. I think it unlikely even if he gets a bounce that it will allow him to run the table.

I also don’t think the jobs news is really good news, and while it may not hurt Obama I don’t think it is going to give him some kind of huge bounce.

This election is going to be close with regards to the popular vote, but I think Obama has an cakewalk when it comes to the electoral college.
KariQ

October 5, 2012 at 8:18 pm

@Smooth Jazz:

One problem is, Rasmussen isn’t including cell phone only voters and not only are they more Dem-leaning than those with landline phones, they are also a growing segment of the population.

Was Ras the most accurate? Well, here’s RCP for 2008: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Looks to me like Ipsos/McClatchy and CNN got it right on the button. Ras was close, but no different than Pew got the exact same number as Rasmussen. If you’re going with that “most accurate” argument, then you need to accept Ipsos, CNN, and Pew on equal footing.

I also suggest, before relying too heavily on Rasmussen’s state polling accuracy, you check their final poll of Ohio in 2008 against the actual results. Obama won Ohio by 4.5 points. Rasmussen’s final poll in Ohio showed a tie.

But you notice something else about those final polls? Virtually all of them are within about 1 point of the final. At that point “most accurate” is really splitting hairs. At the beginning of October, roughly the same time frame as where we are now, the polls ranged from O +3 to O +11.