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Newt Gingrich Predicts Obama Loss, Hints At 2012 Run

Newt GingrichNewt Gingrich tells The Politico that he believes President Obama will lose in 2012, and hinted that he may be running himself:

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gives President Barack Obama only a 20 percent chance of being reelected — and says he might be the one to give Obama the boot.

Gingrich, who this week published a book called “To Save America: Stopping Obama’s Secular-Socialist Machine,” said he thinks Obama has “about one chance in five of getting reelected.” and called him “the closest thing to Jimmy Carter I’ve seen.”

“Because he’s so radical, you’re now going to have, I think, the most consequential campaign since 1932,” when Franklin D. Roosevelt clobbered President Herbert Hoover, Gingrich said.

Giving predictions for November’s midterms, Gingrich said House Republicans will pick up “somewhere between 40 and 65 or 70 seats” — enough to gain control of the House. “I believe John Boehner will be speaker in January,” he said.

Gingrich said he even sees a chance of Republican control of the Senate. “If they can beat Barbara Boxer [in California], I think that [Mitch] McConnell is going to be the Senate majority leader.”

The former speaker said there is “more of a possibility now” that he’ll run for president than when he was considering the idea ahead of the 2008 election. He said he’ll decide in February or March of next year and will base the decision partly on whether there is “a potential to raise the resources to be a serious, major candidate.”

Gingrich said he and his wife, Callista, will base the decision on two top factors: “Is the case for basic change clear enough, and powerful enough, that articulating it and carrying it is a legitimate part of my role as a citizen?” and “Is there a potential to raise the resources to be a serious, major candidate.”

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We’ve seen Gingrich play this game before, of course. Prior to 2008, he hinted that he was thinking about entering the race before ultimately announcing that he would not be making a run. In the meantime, he managed to get himself on a lot of network and cable news shows, and make a lot of speeches. A cynical person might say that Gingrich used the increased attention created by a potential candidacy to enhance his own profile, and that he’s probably doing it again.

As for Gingrich’s prediction of an Obama loss, it’s simply far too early to predict anything about what’s going to happen in 30 months, especially considering that Obama’s job approval numbers remain in the high 40’s, not good but not disastrous at this point in a Presidency either. Additionally, the President’s personal favorability numbers remain higher than Mitt Romney’s, or Mike Huckabee’s, or Sarah Palin’s.

Given that, and the fact that, even incrementally, the economy seems to be improving, it’s simply foolish of Gingrich to say that Obama is a near-certain loser in 2012.

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. sam says:

    Does he plan to run as the (multiple) family values candidate?

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  2. Dantheman says:

    Please, please let Newt run. If it comes down to him and Sarah Palin, we get a contest between a person who when she didn’t get her way left office halfway through her term and a person who when he didn’t get his way shut down the government.

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  3. anjin-san says:

    Interesting that he mentioned his wife. Is this the one he cheated on, or the one he cheated with? I can’t keep it straight. Perhaps they could do an abstinence video…

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  4. Steve Plunk says:

    The one number that truly reflects an economic recovery is unemployment percentage. If unemployment stays high it doesn’t matter what GDP is or what the stock market is.

    The larger liability for Obama is the fact his aura is gone and we see he is exactly what people warned of. Super liberal and super inexperienced. He has no more gravitas and his infamous use of teleprompters makes him look less intelligent.

    I have to agree with my liberal friends that Gingrich carries too much baggage for a serious run. He’s very smart and I think deserving of a cabinet position but the story of how he treated his first wife will haunt him forever.

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  5. Makes more sense than predicting an Obama victory and announcing he is going to run, I suppose.

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  6. anjin-san says:

    The one number that truly reflects an economic recovery is unemployment percentage.

    Ummm. Nope. Employment is a lagging indicator. And given that we have already had two “jobless” recoveries, it is becoming apparent that we are experiencing some structural realignment to the employment picture in this country, and not in a way that favors job seekers.

    his infamous use of teleprompters makes him look less intelligent.

    Well, no. But your use of this debunked Fox talking point makes you look less intelligent.

    we see he is exactly what people warned of. Super liberal and super inexperienced.

    You might as well stick with this line. The mouth readers will probably continue to buy into it in spite of the fact that it is becoming more apparent all the time that Obama is actually a pretty effective President.

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  7. Matt says:

    Oh god not this teleprompter shit again. It’s fine for Reagan and other Republicans to use it but god forbid a Democrat should…

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