Obama up by 8 in Pew Poll
Via the Pew Research Center: Obama Ahead with Stronger Support, Better Image and Lead on Most Issues
At this stage in the campaign, Barack Obama is in a strong position compared with past victorious presidential candidates. With an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, Obama holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November, including Obama four years ago. In elections since 1988, only Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with a larger advantage.
I must confess, I was surprised that the lead was that large (the RCP average, including this poll, is +2.9 for Obama).
“(the RCP average, including this poll, is +2.9 for Obama” – yeah, but that average includes Rasmussen.
I doubt Obama is up by that much, likely 4-5 nationally.
I agree that this looks like an outlier to me. But there are lots of scary things in there for the Romney campaign. The president’s support is 68% strong and 31% moderate, whereas Romney’s figures are 56% and 43%. Similarly, three-quarters of the Obama’s supporters view their vote as supporting him while more than half of the Romney voters report to be voting against the president.
So even if the top-line numbers are off a couple of points, the profiles of each side’s supporters show that if there is to be an enthusiasm gap, that will probably favor Obama, and that would not have been the expectation a couple of months ago.