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Quote of the Day, No Need To Worry About Cannibal Robots Edition

“We completely understand the public’s concern about futuristic robots feeding on the human population, but that is not our mission.” – Harry Schoell

(link via Patrick Appel)

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Shrinkage

In a classic Seinfeld episode, a phenomenon known as “shrinkage” was attributed to cold water. Now, a study finds that European fish have been shrinking owing to warm water.

Go figure.

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The Biggest Obstacle to Blogging

Megan McArdle reports that she has had a fourth bicycle stolen since moving to DC, all of them locked, all of them at her home, the most recent inside a stockade fence.  In frustration, she observes, “I think I’m done with bike commuting. I’d rather just hand out $100 bills to random people on the street; at least I wouldn’t be rewarding theft.”

This is followed by a remarkably heated exchange in the comments section, numbering 60 as of this writing, wherein readers lambaste Megan for being a dingbat and each other for various transgressions.

Freddy Mercury and company offer some related thoughts:

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Gates, Hazelton, and Chappelle

Robert Cox passes on the story of Demetrius Hazelton, the 17-year-old son a New Rochelle police detective, who is suing said PD after he was arrested after using a  “white racial monotone voice” which police claim is the same voice used by Dave Chappelle “when making fun of white people.”

Bob supplies the following Chappelle video, which is decidedly R-rated:


Dave Chappelle Stand Up – Scared Of The Police

The beginning of the monologue is especially amusing in light of yesterday’s news that Harvard African-American Studies professor Henry Louis Gates was recently arrested for breaking into his own house.

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Obama: No Pacemaker For You!

Via Megan McArdle, I see that President Obama told a woman whose now-105-year-old mother got a pacemaker five years ago that, under Obamacare, we might just give old ladies a pill:

Megan observes, “I don’t know that this is going to hurt the image of healthcare reform.  But it probably isn’t going to help.”  That was my reaction, too, until I realized that the exchange took place in the ABC News town hall special on June 25 and this was the first I’d heard of it.

Of course, the fact that Michael Jackson died the same day might have something to do with that.

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The Drug War In a Nutshell

Thoreau explains to a friend what will happen to him if he decides to grow a marijuana plant on his property:

  • Masked men with guns would break down your door.
  • They would confiscate your assets.
  • They would drag you away in front of your family.
  • They would lock you in a cage with violent criminal gangs.
  • They would do these things because if you were allowed to grow and use that plant then something bad might happen.

The only thing neglected here, as one of Thoreau’s commenters points out, is that the masked men would also shoot your dog. Other than that, that about sums it up.

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Jimmy Carter Quits Baptists (Again)

Former President Jimmy Carter quit the Southern Baptist Convention more than eight years ago because of its refusal to ordain women as pastors (rather odd, since the policy had been in place since the early seventeenth century origins of the Baptist faith based on the example of another follow with the initials J.C.).   To make sure people noticed — since he had long stopped having anything to do with the SBC — he sent out 75,000 letters.

Over the weekend, Carter apparently reckoned people forgot about this (and, I must confess, I had) he up and quit again, this time via op-eds in The Guardian and The Age. (The latter was published a week ago but, owing to the confluence of the International Date Line and a lot of famous celebrities dying, nobody in the United States noticed until yesterday.)

But I digress.  I bring this up not because I much care about Carter’s religion, having neither a dog in the fight nor interest sufficient to warrant exchanging a rodent’s hindquarters for his views on the subject, but rather because of the extraordinarily bizarre explanation given.

At its most repugnant, the belief that women must be subjugated to the wishes of men excuses slavery, violence, forced prostitution, genital mutilation and national laws that omit rape as a crime. But it also costs many millions of girls and women control over their own bodies and lives, and continues to deny them fair access to education, health, employment and influence within their own communities.

Now, I can’t vouch for Plains, Georgia.  But I’ve lived in plenty of communities where Southern Baptists predominated.  In all of them, prostitution and rape were against the law.  Girls went to school and the doctor.  Women had jobs and influence.  So far as I know, their genitals were intact.

The impact of these religious beliefs touches every aspect of our lives. They help explain why in many countries boys are educated before girls; why girls are told when and whom they must marry; and why many face enormous and unacceptable risks in pregnancy and childbirth because their basic health needs are not met.

But these aren’t countries run by Southern Baptists.  In rural Alabama and Mississippi, girls start and finish school at the same age as boys. Young women now outnumber young men in our colleges and universities.  Arranged marriages have never been part of our culture.  To the extent “their basic health needs are not met,” it’s because of poverty, not religious dogma.

In some Islamic nations, women are restricted in their movements, punished for permitting the exposure of an arm or ankle, deprived of education, prohibited from driving a car or competing with men for a job. If a woman is raped, she is often most severely punished as the guilty party in the crime.

In Southern Baptist towns in the United States, women show a hell of a lot more than their arms and ankles. They’re required to go to school up to age 16 and are strongly encouraged to graduate high school and go on to college.  Women work outside the home at tremendous rate.  Rape is abhorred and the rapist is severely punished, often in extracurricular fashion.

The same discriminatory thinking lies behind the continuing gender gap in pay and why there are still so few women in office in the West. The root of this prejudice lies deep in our histories, but its impact is felt every day. It is not women and girls alone who suffer. It damages all of us. The evidence shows that investing in women and girls delivers major benefits for society. An educated woman has healthier children. She is more likely to send them to school. She earns more and invests what she earns in her family.

A goodly number of Western countries (although, granted, none with large Southern Baptist populations) have women prime ministers and presidents.  In the United States, including the South, women governors, senators, and other high office holders were quite common long before Carter quit the Convention (the first time).  We’ve had three female Secretaries of State, a woman National Security Advisor, a woman Attorney General, a woman Secretary of Homeland Security.  We’ve had two women as vice presidential nominees and one who came close to getting a major party presidential nod.   Sarah Palin, despite rather little experience or demonstrated expertise, seems to be the enthusiastic favorite for the Republican presidential nomination among Southern Baptists.

There are plenty of reasons to pick nits with the Southern Baptists.  But the depredations of radical Islam are not among them.

Baptist photo by Flickr users djking under Creative Commons license.

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Caption Contest Winners

The Mission Accomplished Edition OTB Caption ContestTM is now over.

soniczoom

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Khamenei: Failing the Test

From The Guardian:

Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, warned today that continuing divisions would lead to the collapse of the country’s ruling elite, after a former president called for a referendum on the government’s legitimacy.

The referendum call from Mohammad Khatami appeared to be part of an opposition strategy to keep Khamenei and allied hardliners on the defensive over last month’s disputed elections.

It coincided with a demand from Mir Hossein Mousavi, the leading opposition candidate in those elections, for the release of opposition supporters detained for protesting against the official results, which gave a landslide victory to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Another former president, Hashemi Rafsanjani, gave a speech at Friday prayers in which he said the Islamic Republic was in crisis and the government had lost the trust of millions of Iranians.

Khamenei, whose previously unquestioned authority is now under daily challenge, hit back furiously. “The elite should be watchful, since they have been faced with a big test. Failing the test will cause their collapse,” the supreme leader said, in a speech to mark a religious holiday, attended by government officials including Ahmadinejad, who sat on the stage behind him.

For some reason I don’t find the collapse of Iran’s ruling elite a disturbing prospect. Perhaps I’m not the target demographic.

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Counter-Insurgency in Afghanistan

I’d like to draw your attention to a new article by Donald Snow, Professor Emeritus at the University of Alabama and authority on foreign policy, international relations, and national security at New Atlanticist on the feasibility of counter-insurgency in Afghanistan. I won’t attempt to dissect Dr. Snow’s article but will only say that his observations jibe quite well with my own.

I would add, however, that an additional complication of the situation in Afghanistan is that not only is the country large but it has indefensible borders and several of its neighbors have a stake in the outcome there. Also, counter-insurgency is a doctrine invented more than a half century ago by the colonial powers to keep their errant colonies under control. While it may have made sense for the European colonialists, it doesn’t make nearly as much sense for us. We don’t own the territories where we’re trying to practice counter-insurgency and we don’t want to own them.

Here are Dr. Snow’s remarks on the relevancy of the Iraq experience to Afghanistan:

The US government likes to draw the analogy between Iraq and Afghanistan: COIN “worked in Iraq” and can be transferred to Afghanistan. Two rejoinders: the war in Iraq is not over, and will not be concluded until after the US leaves and the Iraqis sort things out,possibly violently. It’s not clear we “won.” Second, Afghanistan and Iraq are alike only in the sense of being in the same area of the world. One experience does not imply another.

They’re also alike in that both have large areas which have never been under the control of a central government, a characteristic common to a swath of territory that runs from the Bosporus to the Indus.

Read the whole thing.

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Jittery About China

I’ve got to admit that these two stories, taken together, have me a mite worried about the economic situation in China. First, a Chinese bank regulator is warning that imprudent loans are causing a credit bubble in China:

China’s top banking regulator on Sunday warned of the risks from surging bank lending, singling out the dangers of unhealthy growth in the property market.

“(We) must control the risk of real estate loans,” said Liu Mingkang, the head of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, adding that measures must be taken to better evaluate the creditworthiness of borrowers.

Liu said bank lending had helped stabilize the economy so far but made one of his strongest calls yet to banks to guard against taking excessive risks.

“In the first half of the year, our country’s banking loans expanded rapidly and helped play an important role in stabilizing the economy, but the loans growth has led to accumulated risks also increasing,” he was quoted as saying in a statement on the China Banking Regulatory Commission website.

Hat tip: Glenn Reynolds

On top of that an “econophysicist” has predicted that the Chinese stock market will collapse within the next week:

The boom and bust nature of economics is one of the most puzzling aspects of the modern world. In the last year or so, many people have learned to their cost that when bubbles burst, businesses, jobs, and livelihoods can go with them.

So an obvious question arises: can we spot bubbles when they occur and predict when they are about to burst? One group of theorists say that they can and have used their techniques to make an extraordinary prediction.

First, they say that they’ve found the telltale signs of a bubble in the growth rate of the Shanghai Composite stock-market index. And second, they say that this bubble will burst between July 17 and 27.

That’s a brave move, so let’s look at it in more detail. The theorist behind this prediction is Didier Sornette at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, in Zurich, who has pioneered the study of market bubbles. Last year, he used his method for spotting bubbles to reveal that oil prices where dangerously inflated.

The telltale sign of a bubble, he says, is a faster than exponential growth rate caused by a positive feedback mechanism that generates this nonlinear growth.

The faster than exponential growth rate is relatively easy to spot. According to the analysis done by Sornette and a few mates, the Shanghai Composite Index certainly seems to have had a faster than exponential growth–a 69 percent rise since October of last year.

Hat tip: Steve Antler

The authors of the article in Technology Review appear skeptical of the methodology used for the prediction, appropriately I think.

I’ve never had much truck with the “China will pull the world out of its economic slump” notion but a serious economic downturn in China would be very bad news, indeed. I’ve long thought that China’s economy was a lot weaker and less stable than it was being credited for and a country of more than a billion people teetering on the brink of poverty going into economic collapse is no laughing matter.

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DC Most Dangerous Driving City

Aaron Brazell passes along word that DC and Baltimore are the most dangerous driving cities, as calculated by Allstate Insurance.  Bengt Havorson has the list:

The Safest Driving Top Ten

1. Sioux Falls, SD
2. Fort Collins, CO
3. Chattanooga, TN
4. Cedar Rapids, IA
5. Knoxville, TN
6. Fort Wayne, IN
7. Lexington-Fayette, KY
8. Eugene, OR
9. Boise, ID
10. Colorado Springs, CO

Bottom of the List – Riskiest Driving Cities

1. Washington, D.C.
2. Baltimore, MD
3. Glendale, CA
4. Hartford, CT
5. Newark, NJ
6. Philadelphia, PA
7. Elizabeth, NJ
8. Providence, RI
9. San Francisco, CA
10. Los Angeles, CA

I’ve lived and driven in Chattanooga and now live in the DC suburbs and commute into the city most days.  While I found both aggravating, mostly because constant construction projects added to traffic congestion, there’s not much doubt in my mind that DC is a worse place to drive.

Looking at how these are calculated, though, I’m a bit dubious.

To arrive at its lists, Allstate, which has about 11.3 percent of U.S. auto-insurance policies, analyzed its claim data for all collisions resulting in property damage claims. To help reduce the chances of influences like weather or construction, Allstate looked at a period of two years from January 2006 to December 2007. The figures were calculated toward “average years between collision” for drivers, and though they might represent an element of relative risk they’re not being used to determine rates.

Let’s presume that Allstate has representative policy holdings across the states.  Wouldn’t “accidents per mile driven” or “accidents per hour driven” by more useful than “years between accidents”?

UPDATESteve Bainbridge thinks it may be no coincidence that DC is both the most dangerous city to drive in and that “DC also has more red light and speed cameras than almost any metro area in the country. Indeed, DC has nearly 10% of all the traffic cameras in the United States.”

Meanwhile, Stacy McCain has some, um, interesting suggestions on how to solve the problem.

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Apollo 11 Live TV Coverage with Walter Cronkite

Now this is pretty cool:  The folks at Kottke.org are bringing Walter Cronkite’s live, real-time coverage of the Apollo XI moon landing as originally broadcast starting at 4:10 Eastern.

Just leave this page open in your browser and at the appointed times (schedule is below), the broadcast will begin (no manual page refresh necessary).

Schedule:
Moon landing broacast start: 4:10:30 pm EDT on July 20
Moon landing shown: 4:17:40 pm EDT
Moon landing broacast end: 4:20:15 pm EDT
Moon walk broadcast start: 10:51:27 pm EDT
First step on Moon: 10:56:15 pm EDT
Nixon speaks to the Eagle crew: approx 11:51:30 pm EDT
Moon walk broadcast end: 12:00:30 pm EDT on July 21

Presumably, you can just go directly to YouTube and watch the segments you’re interested in whenever you want.  But watching it unfold over the course of hours in real time (give or take 40 years) is cool idea.

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Intelligence Agencies Claim Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program

Der Spiegel is reporting that the Bundesnachrichtendienst, Germany’s intelligence agency (BND), believes that Iran is about a year from testing a nuclear weapon:

As far as Iran is concerned, it is closer to being able to carry out a nuclear explosion than was previously thought. That is the opinion of Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, the BND. It’s a view shared by the relevant Israeli intelligence agencies — the Mossad and Israel’s military intelligence agency. According to their estimates, Iran could be in a position to carry out a nuclear bomb test — similar to those that North Korea recently carried out — within a period of approximately one year.

“According to the current assessment of the Mossad and Israeli military intelligence, Iran has solved all the technical problems associated with the assembly and operation of the centrifuges,” Israeli intelligence expert Ronen Bergman told SPIEGEL ONLINE. “It can produce low-enriched uranium and is theoretically capable of producing highly enriched uranium.” Highly enriched uranium is required to build a nuclear bomb.

If Iran continues at the current pace, “it could have enough highly enriched uranium for a test bomb by mid-2010,” says Bergman, the author of the 2008 book “The Secret War with Iran.”

The BND, whose information is likely to have come in part from the Israelis, takes a similar view of the situation. “The BND estimates that Iran, under ideal conditions, would be in the position to produce a nuclear test bomb under laboratory conditions within a period of less than five years,” a BND spokesman told SPIEGEL ONLINE. But the BND makes an important caveat: “That would still be a long way from a nuclear bomb or a weapons system.”

It’s somewhat difficult to determine whether this is one intelligence estimate or two. The Wall Street Journal is reporting on the same story:

The Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, has amassed evidence of a sophisticated Iranian nuclear weapons program that continued beyond 2003. This usually classified information comes courtesy of Germany’s highest state-security court. In a 30-page legal opinion on March 26 and a May 27 press release in a case about possible illegal trading with Iran, a special national security panel of the Federal Supreme Court in Karlsruhe cites from a May 2008 BND report, saying the agency “showed comprehensively” that “development work on nuclear weapons can be observed in Iran even after 2003.”

According to the judges, the BND supplemented its findings on August 28, 2008, showing “the development of a new missile launcher and the similarities between Iran’s acquisition efforts and those of countries with already known nuclear weapons programs, such as Pakistan and North Korea.”

The article goes on to condemn the 2007 U. S. NIE that found that Iran had suspended its program in 2003 in no uncertain terms:

The court’s decision and the BND’s reports raise the question of how, or why, U.S. intelligence officials could have come to the conclusion that Iran suspended its program in 2003. German intelligence officials wonder themselves. BND sources have told me that they have shared their findings and documentation with their U.S. colleagues ahead of the 2007 NIE report — as is customary between these two allies. It appears the Americans have simply ignored this evidence despite repeated warnings from the BND. This suggests not so much a failure of U.S. intelligence but its sabotage.

The politicized 2007 NIE report undermined the Bush Administration’s efforts to rally international support for tough action against Iran. The world’s best hope is that the Obama Administration is not being fed the same false sense of security.

In the light of this report it’s becoming increasingly difficult to hold that Iran isn’t developing nuclear weapons.

I find this story very interesting in the light of several other stories that have come out in recent months including North Korea’s recent missile test, Russia’s repeated statements of its lack of ability to influence Iran to abandon its nuclear development program, even yesterday’s report of a cure for radiation sickness. For one thing, apparently the BND is thinking along lines similar to those I’ve suggested. It may be more appropriate to consider the North Korean and Iranian development programs together rather than in isolation.

A dangerous world is becoming even more dangerous quickly.

Above Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad tours Natanz nuclear enrichment facility.

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Moon Landing Plus 40 – One Last Step for Mankind?

Reflecting on the 40th anniversary of Neil Armstrong’s walk on the moon, Megan McArdle wonders why the space program lost its momentum.  Jim Henley reckons it’s because “space travel is expensive, dangerous, unprofitable and (medically, biologically) kind of” problematic.

I’m old enough to have been alive for the moon walk but too young to remember it.  I admire the adventurism and have a sense nostalgia for it and very much enjoyed “The Right Stuff,” “Moon Shot,” and “From the Earth to the Moon.”   I even got enthusiastic about the first couple of flights of the space shuttle.

Alas, space flight now has the romantic appeal of commercial air travel.  Despite being dangerous as hell, shuttle missions have been ho hum for twenty years; they’re only interesting when they’re tragic.  The space station has only slightly more drama than any other scientific laboratory.

In the old days, our astronauts were heroic men culled from the ranks of military fighter pilots and test pilots; now, they’re mostly technicians.  As rigorous as the selection and training process is — and, again, as risky as actually heading off to space is — most of those who go off to space are the functional equivalent of those of us sitting in the passenger section of a Boeing 777 typing away on our laptops.

Space may be the final frontier but, absent some incredible advance in technology, there are no great manned missions in our near future.  How much of an advance over walking on the moon would walking on Mars really be?  And anything beyond Mars is so far away that it simply doesn’t make sense to try to send human beings there, since it would take years.

Oh, and scientists would rather have the money to fund better telescopes and more efficient ways of studying space.

Frankly, I’m more anxious for the next “Star Trek” movie to come out than I am for the next big manned space project. Although, if we develop warp technology and the Vulcans initiate first contact, I could change my mind.

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VETERAN'S ALERT

In addition to uncertain healthcare services, economic disadvantages, and finding a place to call home, veterans certainly do not need any more challenges. Unfortunately, the wounds of war can be less obvious than those that we can see. Psychological disorders and sicknesses caused by toxic exposure can be the most damaging aspects of war that veterans bring home. Toxin exposure in particular is of particular concern as previous exposure to asbestos among veterans is causing incidence of the aggressive cancer mesothelioma to rise among former members of the armed services. We must not leave those who risked their lives for our nation in the cold. Our veterans have never questioned the right or wrong of war when it mattered most. They simply did as they were trained. We must now show the same unwavering determination, in all ways we are able, by affording those opportunities to which they are entitled, including financial, medical and emotional support to all veterans.



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