• Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Subscribe
  • RSS

Ron Paul vs. Rudy Giuliani

Ron Paul vs. Rudy Giuliani Photo Pat Lang sees a conspiracy afoot in Fox News’ decision to keep Ron Paul out of last night’s debate:

The supposedly conservative Fox News organization did not invite to their debate ,Dr. Paul, a true blue Libertarian Conservative who is rising steadily in funding and in the polls.

Why would they do that? Easy. Paul really IS a conservative as opposed to the brand of neocon, Jacobin rightist so dear to the hearts of people like Murdoch.

Giuliani is on his way to the discard pile of history, weighed down with his foreign policy advisors (refugees from the first Bush ’41 term), Bernie Kerik, other friends, and a cell phone that rang too often. Nevertheless, HE had a seat at the table at the Faux News extravaganza.

Brent Budowsky agrees:

In Iowa, the only real state that has voted so far, Ron Paul kicked Rudy’s butt in the voting. In campaign fundraising, Ron Paul appears set to kick Rudy’s butt again.

While I think Paul should have been included in the Fox forum, as he was the previous night on ABC, that’s a judgment as to where to draw a line rather than an assessment that he has any chance of winning the Republican nomination.

It may well be true that, as Steven Taylor suggests, Giuliani is “toast and getting darker” owing to a flawed “late state strategy.” He came in sixth — behind Paul — in Iowa and it would not be the greatest upset in the world if Paul surged ahead of him to take fourth place in New Hampshire.

Still, the fact remains that Giuliani remains in a statistical tie with John McCain for first place nationally, attracting 19.0 percent to Paul’s 3.3 percent support among likely Republican primary voters. He’s easily got more cash on hand than any of his challengers. He’s got three times Paul’s support in Michigan (12.5 to 4.3); is leading in Nevada (23.7) to Paul’s sixth (5.0); has twice Paul’s support in South Carolina (12.8 to 6.3); first in Florida (25.3) to Paul’s sixth (3.3); first (25.7) in California to Paul’s “no total;” and so on and so forth.

No doubt, Paul’s supporters are much, much more enthusiastic than Giuliani’s. But they’re much fewer in number.

While it’s an uphill fight, it’s not inconceivable that Giuliani could win the nomination. Until a couple months ago, he was the odds-on favorite. By contrast, Paul’s only plausible road to the White House involves nuclear holocaust, invasion from outer space, or something else out of a science fiction movie.

Photo Credit: East Valley Tribune

Related Posts:

About James Joyner
James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway, an associate professor of security studies at the Marine Corps Command and Staff College, and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. He earned a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter.

Comments

  1. Boyd says:

    The horde descends in 3…2…1…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  2. Abe says:

    If you repeat the opinion that Paul has “no chance” everyone will soon begin to believe it. Very few people have heard of Ron Paul or know what he stands for in spite of the numerous televised debates with only the opportunity to hear sound bites. There is a growing anti-war sentiment in the GOP as well as the nation. The GOP pulled the U.S. out of Korea as well as Vietnam. Traditional conservatives have put America first compared to GWB’s spreading of democracy by force of arms. Ron Paul is the “Taxpayer’s Best Friend”. As more and more people hear about his views you can expect his numbers to rise nationally and become a substantial factor at the GOP convention.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  3. Dave says:

    And the fact remains; Most of RP supporters are not on the poll calling lists. It also matters which poll you want to look at. RP smokes everyone w/ online polling, but ‘that doesn’t count’. How about some objective, UNBIASED reporting here, eh? Is that too much to ask?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  4. Scott says:

    National polls are meaningless when it comes to choosing who should attend the debates. There is no such thing as a “national” primary. Historically, the results of early primaries can turn the national polls upside down. Kerry is the perfect example. National poll results would have excluded him from a lot of debates if we’d been doing this in 2003-2004. And the current Republican race is far more volitile by comparison. No… the decision to exclude Ron Paul is purely political.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  5. Doug Bayless says:

    He’s easily got more cash on hand than any of his challengers.

    Most reports indicate that Paul has millions more cash on hand than Giuliani. Whether that makes a difference remains to be seen.

    But if that is any indicator at all of potential, Paul has Giuliani beat handily in that category.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  6. Tlaloc says:

    National polls are meaningless when it comes to choosing who should attend the debates. There is no such thing as a “national” primary.

    This is an actual valid point. Since the primaries are distinctly state by state contests it really only makes sense to base who is invited to the debate on the polling in that state.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  7. I went to the rally at the ABC/Facebook debate in Manchester, NH. More than half of the supporters outside were Ron Paul supporters. Why did you not hear of this? Well when I got home after the rally, I made it just in time to watch them concluding the Republican portion of the debate. Then the charming princess Dianne Sawyer says here are the people rallying outside of the debate hall (not true, we were allowed nowhere near the debate hall). They showed the same three second clip of 40 Hillary supporters over and over again. People all over the country watched and now think NH wants Hillary.

    I am from NH. She is not very well liked here. Obama will beat her hands down much like Iowa.

    But at the Rally, just like many others like it, it was Ron Paul that the people of NH were shouting for.

    Please vote Ron Paul if you want to restore the republic.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  8. James Joyner says:

    Since the primaries are distinctly state by state contests it really only makes sense to base who is invited to the debate on the polling in that state.

    Only if you’re showing the contest only on local television. If the show’s broadcast nationally, though, it makes sense to decide based on national numbers.

    Again, I think Paul’s got respectable enough numbers to be in the debates. But it’s not hard to argue the other way.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  9. Burt Hoovis says:

    “The horde descends in 3…2…1…”

    Gotta admit that is classic quality comedy…I see you’ve been googling Ron Paul – then sorting by date. That’s how we do.

    I love Ron Paul…and am on his side all the way.
    Vote Ron Paul!!!

    Don’t forget to watch him on the Tonight Show
    TONIGHT 1/7/08.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  10. -journeyman says:

    Hahaha! James Joyner is certainly correct in calling The Faux News… but still himself use the same faux set of data as Fox to state that Ron Paul could even get a 4th place finish. Perhaps he does not realize that by using the same skewed polls as other faux news he is effectively the pot calling the kettle black. What the bland corporate news media either forgets or hopes is not true, is that the American voters are rapidly waking up and realizing that the news media is corrupt. People that get their news online are not under the illusions of multiple layers of misinformation and media manipulation. The RP Revolution is not an internet phenomenon as many pundits like to state, but realistically the only real news source with all of it’s multiple and diverse viewpoints.

    Yes, the reader must sort through multitudes of articles to get a sense of what is really going on, but more and more Americans are deciding that in the face of what little is known, this is the only way to discern truth from lies. The internet has the capacity to turn quick soundbites into meaningless fads, but it also carries the potential to be the only unsuppressed information outlet.

    So what will mr. Joyner do if Ron Paul wins the NH Primary? Would he then cry foul? would he need to change his pants?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  11. Todd says:

    The argument that Ron Paul lacks support is based on polls that are inaccurate at best.

    Were the polls predicting that Paul would trounce Giuliani in Iowa?

    No. Because they are wrong.

    How many times will Ron Paul have to beat the expectations set by the polls before people will stop treating the polls like the word of god?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  12. James Joyner says:

    Were the polls predicting that Paul would trounce Giuliani in Iowa?

    No, but about half of them had Paul beating Giuliani and all showed the race close. See the RealClear Politics average, which had Paul at 7.3 percent when he in fact polled 10 percent.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  13. Its obvious that this is politically motivated. Foxnews bias has been proven time and time again.

    The sad thing is these corporatists would still be successful with the government out of their lives, after the changes they’d still have the capital to get things going, they’d just have to turn profits now.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  14. rhys says:

    I wonder how real those nation poll numbers are? I wonder whether 9iu11ani would poll higher nationally than Michael Douglas, Tom Hanks, or Richard Gere for the Republican National Party?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  15. AmericanCitizen says:

    “By contrast, Paul’s only plausible road to the White House involves nuclear holocaust, invasion from outer space, or something else out of a science fiction movie.”

    F U FRANK!
    You know what? no body has ever called me for a poll. In fact, I don’t know anyone who has ever been called for a political poll. You are in for a BIG surprise…

    I guess we better go see the spaceships that just landed next to the nuclear explosion crater.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  16. James R says:

    I’m so sick and tired of people using national public opinion polls at this point in the election. What matters is actual votes counted like in Iowa and polling being down in states just about to have caucuses or primaries like New Hampshire. This is because people start paying closer attention to the candidates the closer it gets to their state’s election date. If one uses this more credible criteria to filter candidates for any debate/forum, Ron Paul would have to be invited. And lets not forget, his fund raising was record breaking nearly raising 20m in the fourth quarter, higher then any other republican candidate.
    The above stated, lends strong proof that Paul was unfairly excluded from Faux’s debate/forum. It is so blatantly obvious that Fox is biased and is actively trying to mold public opinion against Dr. Paul. However, the people are finally waking up.
    People may underestimate the Ron Paul Revolution but I’m sure people did the same during the first revolution of this nation. Call him names, discredit him, put him down, mold the facts into a sugar coated sound bite and force feed the public but know this: America is waking up to the lies. America is waking up to the subtle molding of facts and editing of the truth. Pretty soon, the best spin meisters you can summon will not be able to poison the brains of the masses.
    So, you say Mr. Joyner”…Paul’s only plausible road to the White House involves nuclear holocaust, invasion from outer space, or something else out of a science fiction movie. Well, you may be right this time James, Rep. Paul may not win but very soon, the cause of Ron Paul that grows inside all who love freedom will win and there’s nothing you can do about it.
    In V for Vendetta, everyone put on V’s mask and marched together into a new day of freedom. We all are putting on Ron Paul’s mask of liberty and we will take back the White House, heart by heart, mind by mind, soul by soul. We will take our freedom back Mr. Joyner, we will take our country back.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  17. trent says:

    how can you compare Giuliani to Dr. Paul? that’s like comparing a used car salesman to a doctor. it’s absurd, Ron Paul is absolutely GENIUS and understands the problems that face this country. his response to questions are always thoughrough and elaborative, not the same stupid answers that the other guys give.

    also, please keep in mind that Ron Paul has been married to the same woman for years and has proven to be a moral, great person. much unlike Ghouliani.

    if you care about your personal rights, your freedom and privacy – Vote Ron Paul for 2008. it’s that simple. love Dr. Paul, love the Constitution and live a great life.

    Ron Paul 2008
    http://www.drainweb.com/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  18. Danny says:

    Paul’s only plausible road to the White House involves nuclear holocaust, invasion from outer space, or something else out of a science fiction movie.

    You’ll hardly need to see science fiction to make a Ron Paul presidency real. How about a dollar collapse? Or a severe economic turn down? Both are very real scenarios that we are facing here in the United States and Ron Paul is the only candidate realistically addressing those issues. You think the guy that’s been warning us about our coming economic hardships for 20 years might be the person people turn to when those economic hardships materialize?

    The Comptroller General of the GAO is TOURING the country to warn us about these very real dangers because, as he says, he’s ‘given up’ on the politicians. The fact that America’s lead ACCOUNTANT feels compelled to start a tour should be telling us something here! This country is in dire financial straits and Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate that even realizes this, yet alone has any meaningful solutions for it.

    Call me crazy, but I like running water and electricity…and eating. You think it can’t happen here? History and Ron Paul will tell you otherwise…as will the Comptroller General, I might add.

    Wake up! Vote Ron Paul in 2008!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  19. Paul Barnes says:

    So, if Paul is so popular, why isn’t he winning the primaries?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  20. Bill Moore says:

    I wonder why the Ron Paul supporters are so much more enthusiastic than the supporters of all of the other candidates.

    Hmm, they must all just be crazy. That’s always a good explanation when one doesn’t want to think too hard about things.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  21. trent says:

    I wonder why the Ron Paul supporters are so much more enthusiastic than the supporters of all of the other candidates.

    Bill Moore: The reason that Ron Paul’s supporters are so enthusiastic is because Ron Paul is a Constitutionalist, and many of us really want to turn America back into a Constitutional society. It’s the only way we will ever be Americans again.

    We have lost so much, we have turned into a bunch of crazy people after 9/11. I mean, if you guage the way our own government reacted to 9/11 – to take our freedoms, put the population under fear control… it’s scary and almost as if the terrorists have won. If we want any hope of not continuing down a path of meaningless wars and Constitution raping, then we need Ron Paul.

    If we do not see someone like Ron Paul become president, then we will continue down this slippery slope and we will continue to fight phony wars and fight “terrorism” which is actually a tactic and not even an enemy. George Bush and his crazy looney neocon freakshow friends are RAPING our country, they are corporate America.

    If Ron Paul became president he’d clean house and give the power back to the people. He would stop the phony wars and use those billions of dollars here at home to secure our border the way it should be.

    BTW – by definition, Rudy Ghouliani IS IN FACT a terrorist. he has built a campaign based on fear and threats, just like terrorists do.

    GOD have mercy on all of us. If there are more people like Bill Moore, then we are truly screwed!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  22. Steve grycel says:

    This is just bad reporting. As a matter of fact, it is not reporting at all, it is just conjecture. Why don’t you let the political process play out as it should instead of promoting NeoCon retoric. I’m really glad that I have the opportunity to get the real news from the internet, instead of Neocon mouthpieces.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  23. Tlaloc says:

    Only if you’re showing the contest only on local television. If the show’s broadcast nationally, though, it makes sense to decide based on national numbers.

    I suppose it depends on whether it is “the New Hampshire primary debate” or “a presidential candidate debate, which just happens to be before the New Hampshire primary.”

    I’ve assumed it was more the former, but maybe that’s not how they sold themselves.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  24. James Cooke says:

    Ron Paul still has a shot because it’s becoming more and more likely that No GOP candidate will have the nomination on the first ballot.

    For Paul to win, he needs to take a number of the California districts and win his home state of Texas.

    To do that, he needs to do a couple things. First, he needs to learn speak in “sound bites,” quick retorts to standard questions from the news media.

    Second, he needs to spend some money to develop some new ads. One should note that he’s a Candidate of change, but unlike other candidates of change who want BIG GOVERNMENT, he will bring about smaller government and more personal liberty. He also needs to note that where others talk about cutting taxes, he’s the only with a PLAN on what to CUT.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  25. Mike says:

    Ron Paul is a “top tier” patriot. His conservatism is legitimate and recognizable to those who versed in political philosophy.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  26. Lorin G. Page says:

    The page you cited noting that Giuliani has more cash on hand didn’t take into account Dr. Paul’s $20 million dollar fourth quarter fundraising haul.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  27. Paul says:

    I’m a libertarian. I even had a Ron Paul bumpersticker in 1988. I think it would do the country a lot of good to have a libertarian president, although many of the posts describing a Paul presidency (good or bad) seem to ignore that a Congress will have a lot to say about what happens.

    But I’m struck, when the “horde” descends, that many of the posts don’t seem to be about liberty or fiscal responsibility, but instead, about stuff like this:

    The reason that Ron Paul’s supporters are so enthusiastic is because Ron Paul is a Constitutionalist, and many of us really want to turn America back into a Constitutional society.

    Now, no offense to Bill who is probably an upstanding citizen supporting Paul for all the right reasons, but in general I come away creeped out by much of this because it reminds me more of the kinds of codewords used by segregationists or the so-called Freemen. It isn’t like states have a better record than the federal government at protecting liberty. The only reason they do better with money is because they can’t print any. Constitutionalism doesn’t have any merit, or demerit, in and of itself, it is what you do with it (or what you choose not to do because of it). Liberty is best preserved not by a weak central government, but by a strong government that uses that power responsibly and sparingly. The argument against a strong government (federal or otherwise) isn’t libertarian, it is anarchist.

    So I remain kind of unclear on whether Ron Paul has proven that there is fertile ground for other libertarian candidates in the future (which I would find great), or whether his following is really about something else. Some of both, I guess.

    When a lot of Paul supporters talk, I sort of get reminded of my high school days when a guy would talk about his new, first serious girlfriend. Immediately after getting her pants off for the first time, the guy is certain that she is perfect for him and gets utterly crushed when (if he is lucky) she dumps him, when in fact a decade and many girlfriends later he could only laugh at how ridiculously unsuitable the match was. Ron Paul is certainly better than many of the candidates, and brings a lot of badly needed fresh air into the stagnant and unimaginative party that the GOP has become, but he is also not a “genius,” or a Civil War expert, or even much of a libertarian on some issues. This post has no conclusion because, unlike a lot of posts I see these days, I don’t claim to have an answer for everything and in fact I pretty much distrust anyone who says they do.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  28. Tlaloc says:

    If nothing else, campaign 2008 has provided one great gift- many on the right have openly admitted that Fox news is not “Fair and balanced.” Granted they were speaking about FNC treatment of their particular candidate, but those admissions are now saved for all posterity on “teh Interwebz.”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  29. Brian says:

    Giuiliani is going broke and he has no supporters. If he doesn’t win FL, he’ll be out of the race. And boy, I can’t wait because I’m sick and tired of looking at his smirking face.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  30. Timm Knibbs says:

    News Corp, the parent company of Fox New, is a client of Bracewell and Giuliani. Given the fact that Dr. Paul and Mr. Giuliani do not get along I think this may be a factor in his exclusion.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  31. Tim C says:

    So Rudy is now dead last by a big margin and there’s no cash left to pay his campaign staff.

    Any plans to update this article?

    “The fact remains” that those weren’t facts afterall, and so on and so forth. :)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0