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Budget Deal Likely To Pass Senate Easily

Notwithstanding some concerns that Democrats may not have the votes to pass the Ryan/Murray Budget when it comes up for a vote tomorrow, and a steady drumbeat of pressure from Tea Party groups such as Freedomworks and Club For Growth for Republican Senators to vote “No”on both cloture and on the final bill, it looks as though the compromise bill will ultimately end up passing the Senate easily:

With the budget drama heading into its final act in the Senate on Tuesday, tensions surrounding the fate of the two-year deal are dissipating, with Republicans signaling they will not block the measure.

Leery of saying how they would vote before the House overwhelmingly approved the deal on Thursday, Senate Republicans opened up on Friday. GOP Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Jeff Flake and John McCain of Arizona said they would vote for cloture, and others indicated they’re considering it.

Despite the reluctance of some members to say how they would vote, the mood among senators on Friday bordered on upbeat.

“I think it represents a sincere effort to compromise, move us forward, and end this lurching from crisis to crisis that has been so damaging to the economy and to people’s confidence in government,” said Collins, who is also likely to vote yes on the legislation.

Even Republicans who oppose the deal brokered by Rep. Paul Ryan and Sen. Patty Murray predict the compromise budget would make appropriating easier.

“We’ll work with whatever the number is,” said Senate Appropriations Committee ranking member Richard Shelby, R-Ala. “I’ve always said if we had a number, we ought to go by the number, and if we get the number—and I think we will, who knows?—I believe the appropriations process will start working.”

While Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., opposes the budget because it exceeds the caps set by the Budget Control Act—the best vote he ever took in the Senate, he said—he’s considering voting for cloture and suggested he’s fed up with the importance with which cloture votes are now treated. Outside groups, particularly conservative organizations, have begun to score even the procedural votes.

“Always the deciding factor was how you voted on the piece of legislation, not whether you voted to end debate or not end debate,” Corker said. “So I’m thinking: Is it time to end this debate on this issue?”

Corker said he thinks the Senate will move beyond the procedural hurdle, which is expected to come up Tuesday.

McCain, as well as a number of other Republicans, reasoned that defeating the legislation would be tantamount to paving the way for another shutdown, which proved politically disastrous for the GOP in October.

“I’m not OK with it,” he said. “But I think it’s better than shutting down the government.”

Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., who faces a primary challenge from conservative state Sen. Chris McDaniel next year, said he is still weighing his options on both the cloture vote and the underlying bill. Cochran brushed off questions about whether his challenge from McDaniel, who has the support of several conservative outside groups, is a factor in his decision-making.

Sen. Mike Johanns of Nebraska, who is retiring at the end of next year, is considering his options, but said that he is considering voting for cloture while opposing the overall bill. “I’m very concerned about the package, but I can also see the merits of a two-year deal,” he said Friday. “So I want the weekend to think about it and I’ll make a decision.”

But Johanns and several other Republican senators predicted that the bill will pass easily, arguing that lawmakers are wary of entering the holidays with the specter of another government shutdown in January hanging over their heads.

Also likely influencing Republicans in the Senate in how they react to the bill is the fact that it passed the House with an impressive 330+ votes, and only garnered “No” votes from about 26% of the House GOP Caucus, hardly signs of a rebellion from the conservative wing of the House GOP. Given that, the idea that it would fail in the Senate, which has a reputation for being far more moderate than its counterpart across the Rotunda. In the end, you’ll likely see a not inconsiderable number of Republicans cross the aisle to vote in favor of invoking cloture at the appropriate time, even if they ultimately end up voting for the bill. Once over the cloture hump, and recall that there are two cloture votes in the Senate, one to open debate and the other to close it, the bill will clearly pass easily just based on Democratic votes alone, although its likely to garner at least some Republican votes.

Right now, the initial cloture vote on the budget is scheduled for tomorrow, which means that final votes would take place either Thursday or Friday.

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. C. Clavin says:

    I’m not happy about the defense budget or the Un-Employment benefits…but McCain is right…it’s better than another shut-down. Sad that when Republicans are just barely do their job…it’s a big deal.
    Democrats got some new revenue* without giving up anything on entitlements.
    Republicans got to preserve some budget money for their defense-contractor overlords.
    Millions of people suffering under the Republican war on the middle-class won’t get an extension of UE benefits…even though it’s the fiscally conservative thing to do. We’ll have to wait and see what damage this does to the recovery already being actively sabotaged by Republicans.
    In all…a minor miracle given the behavior of Republicans…extremely minor.

    * We can actually slash tax rates to zero if we are going to start calling them fees instead.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2

  2. stonetools says:

    The Democrats will pursue UI seperately after the Christmas break-and will most likely get it. Hell, if even Doug gets that not extending UI benefits is both mean and counterproductive, then I can’t see how the House Republicans can vote against it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

  3. gVOR08 says:

    Don’t mean a thing if it ain’t got that swing. And it ain’t got that swing until Republicans break Norquist’s tax pledge, and don’t get primaried for it. Everybody talks about the Tea Party, but it’s really Americans for Tax Reform, The Club for Growth (sic), Heritage Action,etc. that have to be broken before we can return to anything like normalcy.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 2

  4. rudderpedals says:

    @gVOR08: The Club for Growth

    The Cudgel for Growth, bludgeoning the country until it says uncle.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0