Donald Trump Removed From Maine Ballot

Another state has declared him an insurrectionist.

On Handcounts

Ignorance, it turns out, isn’t bliss.

SCOTUS Denies Fast Track of Trump Immunity Claim

They’ve punted to the DC Circuit.

New York Gerrymander May Be Back

A never-ending saga of politicians choosing their voters.

Thoughts on the US Presidential Primary System

The system isn’t very good.

The Nikki Haley Comet

The anti-Trump forces are rallying around the former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador.

President Joe Biden boards Marine One at the Wall Street Landing Zone in Manhattan, Wednesday, September 20, 2023 en route to JFK International Airport in Queens, New York. The Statue of Liberty can be seen in the background. President Joe Biden boards Marine One at the Wall Street Landing Zone in Manhattan, Wednesday, September 20, 2023 en route to JFK International Airport in Queens, New York. The Statue of Liberty can be seen in the background.

Old Man Biden and Young Would-Be Voters

The President has tepid support in the 18-29 demographic.

On the Median Voter

A David Brooks column inspires some thoughts.

The Faux Haley Boomlet

The press really needs to stop trying to make fetch happen.

California Senate Sinkhole

A race a Democrat will definitely win will be the most expensive in US history.

Far Right Politics Spreading Across the West

The trend shows no sign of abating.

A Different Democracy, Indeed

A trip through comparative democratic reform.

(Last) Sunday’s Discussion Question Revisited

Wherein I finally reveal my answer (spoiler: it is hardly surprising). And, also, wherein despite the goal of brevity, I fail at that goal.

Fear of a Third Party

The Electoral College is holding a nation of millions back.

Yet Another Example of the Weakness of US Parties

The parties do not control their labels.

Proposed New Congressional Map for Alabama

The process that could chance Alabama’s congressional delegation begins.

More on Alabama Districts

Diving into the structure of Alabama’s districts and highlighting deep problems.

On Primary Candidacies

Thinking about what is predictive as well as the usefulness of historical case studies.

Why Are So Many Republicans Running?

Are they bored? Delusional?

Turkey’s Elections

Don’t get your hopes up.

Another Reason to Dislike the Electoral College

“Red States” and “Blue State”

Democrats Upend Primary Cycle. At Least for 2024. Maybe.

South Carolina and Georgia win! Iowa loses! New Hampshire whines!

OTB at 20

A look back at two decades of blogging.

Looking to the 2024 Senate Map

A tough map for the Democrats.

On Polling and Media Narratives

Some thoughts on polling and the news since 2016.

Trump Committed Four Crimes, Say January 6 Committee

The ball is now in Merrick Garland’s court.

McCarthy’s Road to the Speakership

He is so close.

What Now for Stacey Abrams’ Model?

Her emphasis on turnout has helped other Democrats but she’s a two-time loser.

Rehnquist and the ‘Independent State Legislature’ Theory

The late Chief Justice was right; his successors are wrong.

Democrats Radically Overhaul Presidential Primaries

The idiocy of Iowa and New Hampshire having outsized influence on who is elected President may be ending.

Alaska Voters Had Real Choices and Made Them

Every vote counted, with refreshing results.

Alaska Results in

MAGA loses again (twice)

Red and Blue States Aren’t Permanent

The margins for 2024 are likely to be slim. But that hides a larger story.

Trump Hemmorhaging Donors and Backers

The ship is abandoning the sinking rat.

What’s the Pattern for Senate Seats in Mid-Terms?

Looking at past Senate elections and some more thoughts on historical patterns.

“We Used to Know on Election Night!”

Well, kind of, but not really.

Nevada ‘Blue Shift’ Expected to Keep Senate Democratic

Adam Laxalt’s big lead is slowly erodiing.

Republican Losers Conceding, Not Rioting

A low bar has been cleared.

Nevada Election Results Could Take ‘Days’

Republicans hold narrow leads for Governor and Senator but . . . .

Democratic Ratfucking Worked

Boosting weak candidates in the Republican primaries paid off.

Democrats Outperform Expectations

The Needle is Broken

Crystal Ball Final 2022 Ratings

Describe the sound made when a sheep explodes.

Congressional Control Still Too Close to Call

We likely won’t know on Election Night.

The Prevailing Myth of American Politics

A bit of a rant, I expect.

Democrats’ Messaging Challenges

Touting the accomplishments of the last two years isn’t working.

Democracy and ZIP Codes

The rules for voting in America vary widely.

Four Seats

31 of the 35 Senate races next month are noncompetititve.

Sarah Palin, Ranked Choice Voting, and the Perils of N=1 Analysis

More details from the Alaska special election.

American Ideological Self-Identification

“Moderate” is up, “Liberal” is down, and “Conservative” is static. What does it mean?

Democrats Betting Big on Abortion

They’re spending millions on issue ads in the wake of Dobbs.