The Electoral College doesn’t matter in the way pundits think it does.

Allocating Electoral Votes by Congressional District is an idea whose time has come.

Is the GOP race really down to just two men at this point?

How does the Electoral College influence policy and campaigning?

In the first entry in this series we looked at a basic question of democratic theory. In this one, we look at whether the EC ever worked as the Framers intended.

The first in a multi-part series on the Electoral College.

The Electoral College is the worst way to elect a President, except for all the others.

Massachusetts becomes the latest state to join in the National Popular Vote initiative.

With new polls out showing that support for President Obama’s policies declining rapidly, Dave Weigel weighs in to remind us that Obama’s doing better than his predecessors at comparable periods. Matt Yglesias helpfully puts the data into a handy dandy chart. Even aside from the fact that this is looking at Obama’s topline approval — [...]

Republicans may be in the midst of a losing at the polls but they continue to pick up seats in the House and Electoral College thanks to the decennial census. Texas will lose some influence in Washington when President George W. Bush leaves the White House, but a new study finds that the Lone Star [...]

A new USA Today/Gallup poll shows that Americans think Barack Obama is handling the transition well and picking an outstanding team.  Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones: Americans widely approve of Barack Obama’s decisions, announced on Monday, to name Hillary Clinton secretary of state and to ask Robert Gates to stay on as secretary of defense. [...] During [...]

George Will argues that the 2008 election demonstrates precisely what the Framers sought to prevent with the Electoral College. In a Presidential contest replete with novelties, none was more significant than this: A candidate’s campaign—for his party’s nomination, then for the presidency—was itself virtually the entire validation of his candidacy. Voters have endorsed Barack Obama’s [...]

Stacy McCain has a tongue-in-cheek rebuttal to my post on the Republican Party’s future in which he notes that Sarah Palin graduated college, some non-Southern states voted for McCain, and than some non-rednecks agree with Palin on some issues. James doesn’t want the Republican Party identified with redneck opponents of illegal immigration (like that illiterate [...]

In the discussion on Obama’s apparent 365-173 Electoral College victory, Rodney Dill asks, “How close is this, historically? The popular vote difference seems like it was pretty big by modern standards, but usually that would result in an even more lopsided electoral vote.” It’s an interesting question. Dave Leip’s Atlas has the results for every [...]

It turns out that, despite a huge rise in voter registrations, actual turnout Tuesday was essentially the same as in 2004. 61 Percent of Eligibles Voted A new report from American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate concludes that voter turnout in Tuesday’s election was the same in percentage terms as it [...]

Quite a few reports came out yesterday buttressing rumors that there were tensions between John McCain and Sarah Palin which caused a feud within the campaign team.   It’s only fitting, I suppose, since the selection of Palin has highlighted and exacerbated a growing fissure within the Republican Party itself. Fox New’s Carl Cameron dished last [...]

After George W. Bush won the 2000 election, despite having received substantially fewer votes nationwide than Al Gore, many of us took great comfort in this famous map, showing the election results county-by-county: In 2004, Bush won re-election by a majority — but John Kerry nearly took it anyway because of a close call in [...]

Barack Obama has won Ohio, CBS radio projects, making it the first Bush state from 2004 to actually switch.  This takes out of play any “miracle” scenarios whereby John McCain somehow won Colorado and New Mexico and kept the 2004 caucus together.  It’s another 20 Electors for Obama. Fox, I should note, hasn’t called it [...]

Okay, so this actually is news:  John McCain is the projected winner in West Virginia.  It’s a Red State but one where Obama was contesting.  Not an upset but the first win of any significance at all.  Put enough 5 Electoral Votes toward his tally.

The OTB gang has previously weighed in with their Electoral College projections. James Joyner: Obama 325, McCain 213 Dodd Harris: Obama 318, McCain 160, Tossup 60 Alex Knapp: Obama 350, McCain 188 Other bloggers’ predictions: Steven Taylor:  Obama 364, McCain 174 Radley Balko: Obama 322,  McCain 216 Nate Silver: Obama 349, McCain 189 John Hawkins: [...]

After nearly four years of watching this campaign unfold, it’s about to wrap up.  There are another thirty-six hours of so of campaigning left and probably no more significant polls to be released.  So, it’s time to go on the record and predict the outcome. Others’ Projections:  An Obama Rout RealClearPolitics: Obama 353, McCain 185 [...]

A new poll claims that a whopping 14 percent of likely voters think they may still change their minds in the five days remaining before the election. One in seven, or 14 percent, can’t decide or back a candidate but might switch, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo! News poll of likely voters released Friday. Who [...]

A new Rasmussen poll finds that voters trust John McCain more than Barack Obama on taxes (47%to 45%) and on “economic issues” more generally (48% to 47%).  These numbers are, of course, within the margin of error.  They do, however, represent a reversal of a trend and may indicate that the “Joe the Plumber” and [...]

Stephen Green runs his periodic Electoral College wargame and has some bittersweet news for Republicans:  “McCain is more competitive than he was last week — but only enough to turn a blow-out into a drubbing.” To put this in sporting terms, McCain is down three scores at the two minute warning. As with a football [...]

Tonight’s third and final debate between John McCain and Barack Obama is the last scheduled opportunity for the candidates to make an impression on the voters.  Election Day is less than three weeks away and, by the looks of things, McCain needs a miracle. According to the poll averages at RealClearPolitics, McCain is getting crushed.  [...]

Bruce Ackerman thinks the vice presidency is an anachronism from the political era of the Framers and ought be abolished. For two centuries, presidential nominees have used the office to balance the ticket by naming a running mate from a different region, or one who speaks with a different ideological accent to a specific constituency. [...]

CNN’s Alex Mooney consults his network’s “poll of polls” and finds that, although nearly 60 million Americans watched last Friday’s debate between John McCain and Barack Obama, the race remains unchanged. The new polls are bad news for McCain, who with only five weeks until Election Day is quickly running out of opportunities to shake [...]

Nate Silver has outlined the scenarios by which “the country’s worst nightmare” — but political pundits’ dream — of an Electoral College tie could take place.  He notes that, as we get closer to the election without either candidate pulling away, the odds get greater. The far most likely 269-269 scenario: “Barack Obama wins the [...]

McCain-Palin currently have a very slim lead over Obama-Biden in virtually every national poll (see RealClearPolitics and Pollster.com).  The Electoral College is too close to call. RCP has it 273-265 for Obama (without toss-ups) while Electoral-Vote.com has it 257-247 for McCain with Virginia and Pennsylvania too close to call. Obviously, there’s still a lot of [...]

John McCain has taken the lead for the first time in the RealClearPolitics Electoral College projection, with a 274 to 264 margin, when tossups are included.  (Barack Obama’s still up 228 to 178 in states with solid margins.) Now, this is one projection. Electoral-Vote.com still has Virginia tied and therefore has the race at Obama [...]

Although some of us have been obsessing about Campaign 2008 since, oh, November 2004, what’s happened thus far is the political equivalent of the NFL’s offseason.  Both parties have completed their drafts and we’ve had some exhibition games but most people are waiting for the regular season to start before paying attention. That happens next [...]

Stephen Green has gotten decidedly ahead of the curve, noodling out some Electoral College scenarios for a McCain-Obama matchup in November. He figures 41 states are already in the bag for one party, meaning the race starts as a virtual tie of 229 for the GOP and 227 for the Democrats. That means a best [...]