Online Journal of Politics and Foreign Affairs
Andrew Exum: for the sake of argument, and putting ourselves in the shoes of an Israeli naval commander, let’s assume the most malevolent of motivations for the people participating in the peace flotilla. If I am in charge of doing that for the Israeli Navy, I am going to assume these people are smart and [...]
Like most everyone, I suspect, I am still in the process of fully processing the events (basics described here in the NYT: Deadly Israeli Raid Draws Condemnation and Raid Complicates U.S. Ties and Push for Peace). Given that this is a breaking story, there are good reasons to be cautious in making overly strident statements [...]
What some are describing as an “aid flotilla” made the mistake of trying to run the Israeli naval blockage of Gaza, and things did not end well: JERUSALEM — The Israeli Navy raided a flotilla carrying thousands of tons of supplies for Gaza in international waters on Monday morning, killing at least 10 people, according [...]
It seems that National Security Advisor Jim Jones has gotten himself into trouble for retelling a very old joke at a think tank speech the other night: I’d like to begin with a story that I think is true, a Taliban militant gets lost and is wandering around the desert looking for water. He finally [...]
The headline “New U.S. Airport Security Measures To Use ‘Real-Time’ Intelligence” caused a chuckle when I saw it on the RFE/RL Twitter feed. Not to overly disparage the TSA’s screeners, intelligence agents they ain’t. But a description of the program makes it sound like a step in the right direction. The U.S. Department of Homeland [...]
In answer to the question, “Why has Barack Obama treated Netanyahu so ‘rudely’?”, Glenn Reynolds responds: Possibly Obama just hates Israel and hates Jews. That’s plausible — certainly nothing in his actions suggests otherwise, really. This is absolutely absurd. First of all, I wouldn’t characterize the President of the United States not completely kowtowing to [...]
IsraPundit reports on Michelle Bachmann’s remarks to the Republican Jewish Coalition regarding the alliance of the United States and Israel. I am convinced in my heart and in my mind that if the United States fails to stand with Israel, that is the end of the United States . . . [W]e have to show [...]
Both Steve Chapman and Ilya Somin argue that, since other countries let gays serve in the military without harming unit cohesion, America can, too. Chapman: It’s not completely implausible that in a military environment, open homosexuality might wreak havoc on order and morale. But the striking thing about these claims is that they exist in [...]
This little tidbit in the Washington Post about Sarah Palin’s “Tea Party Convention” speech caught my eye. She wore a fitted black suit, black hose and high black platform heels. She had on three opera-length strands of pearls, two white and one multi-colored. In her lapel, a small pin with two flags — for Israel [...]
There’s a fascinating article in Spiegel Online (in English) on “Operation Orchard”, the operation in September 2007 in Syria in which the Israeli air force destroyed what many have termed a “nuclear plant”, what the article calls “Syria’s Al Kibar nuclear reactor”, and the Syrians have characterized as a conventional military facility. Spiegel has interviewed [...]
If true this: INTELLIGENCE chief Sir John Scarlett has been told that Saudi Arabia is ready to allow Israel to bomb Iran’s new nuclear site. The head of MI6 discussed the issue in London with Mossad chief Meir Dagan and Saudi officials after British intelligence officers helped to uncover the plant, in the side of [...]
If you only read one thing today, read the for-the-record answers from the Director of National Intelligence to questions from the Senate Intelligence Committee in April 2009. At the very least read the tickler summary from the blog of the Federation of American Scientists, which has done a genuine service in obtaining this document under [...]
The Times of London is reporting that Iranian scientists are only waiting for the order to go before building a nuclear weapon: Iran has perfected the technology to create and detonate a nuclear warhead and is merely awaiting the word from its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to produce its first bomb, Western intelligence sources [...]
Der Spiegel is reporting that the Bundesnachrichtendienst, Germany’s intelligence agency (BND), believes that Iran is about a year from testing a nuclear weapon: As far as Iran is concerned, it is closer to being able to carry out a nuclear explosion than was previously thought. That is the opinion of Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, the [...]
As he promised during his election campaign today President Obama addressed the Muslim world on behalf of the United States in Cairo: CAIRO, June 4 –President Obama asked Thursday for a “new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world” in a speech that urged Islamic nations to embrace democracy, women’s rights, religious [...]
As the national elections there near a number of articles on Iran have been published which I’ll try to weave into something resembling a narrative. Today Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Obama and Congressional leaders and, clearly, Iran was much on the mind of all. PM Netanyahu expressed his concerns to CNN [...]
Over at The New Atlanticist Donald Snow has a post in which he reflects on prospective reactions of the Israelis to the threat posed to them by Iran’s nuclear development program. The article begins with a discussion of the comments of two participants in a symposium, dean emeritus of the Center for Naval Warfare Studies [...]
“Intelligence officials, angry that former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales had blocked an FBI investigation into Democratic Rep. Jane Harman’s interactions with a suspected Israeli agent, tipped off Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader, that Harman had been picked up on a court-ordered National Security Agency wiretap targeting the agent,” CQ’s Jeff Stein reports. “In doing [...]
There’s an article in the Times of London today claiming that Israel’s air force is on standby, just waiting for the order from Israel’s government before mounting an air assault against Iran’s nuclear development sites: The Israeli military is preparing itself to launch a massive aerial assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities within days of being [...]
In his column this morning Tom Friedman bemoans the plight of diplomacy in the modern age of piracy: A secretary of state can broker deals only when other states or parties are ready or able to make them. In the cold war, an age of great powers, grand bargains and reasonably solid client states, there [...]
I glossed over yesterday’s news that the Vatican blocked Caroline Kennedy’s appointment as U.S. ambassador for a variety of reasons. Regular commenter Tlaloc emailed me, though, making a good point: [T]he Vatican refuses to accept any ambassador who is not explicitly pro-life including anti-ESC research (such as Doug Kmiec). Various voices on the right have [...]
Pat Lang has Chas Freeman’s scathing letter announcing his withdrawal as a candidate for NIC chair, including this brilliant assessment of the state of affairs of the political appointment process: As those who know me are well aware, I have greatly enjoyed life since retiring from government. Nothing was further from my mind than a [...]
President Barack Obama’s nominee for the position of chairman of the National Intelligence Council, Charles (Chas) Freeman, who has been praised by some for his foreign policy realism and criticized by others for his ties to the KSA and China, has withdraw his name from nomination: Another top Obama administration appointee pulled the plug today [...]
“Y’know, you can’t wish these things into being.” – Dan Drezner, commenting on Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s “eliding of the international dimension of policymaking.” Much of the commentary I’m seeing on responding to major crises — whether we’re talking about the global financial crisis, energy, climate change, or Middle East peace — these days ignores [...]
On the night before CPAC, Senator James M. Inhofe’s staff reached out to me to see if I would be interested in interviewing him. I was, indeed, but Inhofe never made it to CPAC Thursday because of a series of unscheduled votes, so it became an email exchange instead. Because Inhofe is the second ranking [...]
The juxtaposition of Andrew Sullivan‘s post “A Nation Of Penny-Pinchers” and Eric Martin‘s totally unrelated “Living on Spaghetti, Potatoes, Rice and Beans” in close proximity in my feed reader was rather amusing. The topics they deal with, ordinary Americans cutting back during hard times and an Israeli blockade of Gaza, alas, are decidedly more sobering.
The incumbent Kadima Party did surprisingly well in yesterday’s Israeli elections, apparently winning more votes than favorite Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud. But, as I argue in my New Atlanticist piece, “Israeli Election: Netanyahu Loses, Right Wins,” that doesn’t mean that the forces of sanity won out. Ironically, given that Lieberman holds the whip hand here, the [...]
Today seems to be my day for being inspired by other people’s ideas. Inspired by Russ Stewart, who writes a column for my small local newspaper and who seems to be a pretty savvy guy, I’d like to solicit the answers to some questions about what’s likely to happen in the fairly near future from [...]
Inspired by Pat Lang, I’d like to propose a thought problem. A hypothetical. Despite the post hoc mandate we received from the United Nations Security Council and the status of forces arrangement we’ve arrived at with the Iraqi government, the U. S. continues to be the “occupying power” in Iraq in the eyes of many. [...]
In my New Atlanticist essay, “Obama’s First Interview Goes to Al Arabiya,” I assess the domestic fallout, international optics, and foreign policy implications of President Obama giving his first formal interview in office to an Arab network. On the policy front, I’m not sold. So long as the United States is dependent on Persian Gulf [...]
The Israeli Supreme Court has overturned the ban on Arab political parties which was enacted earlier this month. Israel’s Supreme court overruled on Wednesday a parliamentary panel which had decided to bar Israeli Arab parties from running in next month’s parliamentary election. The court issued its decision in response to an appeal filed by Arab [...]
There’s an op-ed in the New York Review of Books from William Luers, Thomas R. Pickering, and Jim Walsh giving advice on how to make some progress in dealing with Iran that I can only deem incoherent. Their suggestions rest on three legs. First, three of the most pressing security issues that face the incoming [...]
The Israelis have declared a unilateral ceasefire in Gaza: JERUSALEM — Israel declared late Saturday that a unilateral cease-fire would begin in Gaza within hours, but said its troops would remain in place for now. After 22 days of war against Hamas, and the deaths of more than 1,200 Palestinians and 13 Israelis, Prime Minister [...]
Today seems to be the day for presenting three scenarios. Tony Karon, writing at Time.com, presents three scenarios under which the Gaza War might end. The first scenario is regime change in Gaza: Given Israel’s long-term goal of ousting Hamas in Gaza, some key military and political leaders have urged that it expand the goals [...]
Oops. UPDATE (Dave Schuler) The story on this incident appears to be changing: JERUSALEM — Israel’s prime minister says the Israeli military fired artillery shells at a U.N. compound in Gaza after militants opened fire from the location. Ehud Olmert says Israeli forces “were attacked from there and the response was harsh.” U.N. chief Ban [...]
From the Toronto Star: OTTAWA—Canada stood alone before a United Nations human rights council yesterday, the only one among 47 nations to oppose a motion condemning the Israeli military offensive in Gaza. The vote before the Geneva-based body shows the Stephen Harper government has abandoned a more even-handed approach to the Middle East in favour [...]
Via Steve Benen, it appears that Israel’s Central Election Committee has banned Arab parties from running in the next parliamentary elections. Israel on Monday banned Arab political parties from running in next month’s parliamentary elections, drawing accusations of racism by an Arab lawmaker who said he would challenge the decision in the country’s Supreme Court. [...]
Very nearly since the beginning of the hostilities between Israel and Hamas that flared up two weeks ago and are ongoing critics have been saying that, not unlike the Israel-Hezbollah War in 2006, Israel was fighting towards a tactical victory and a strategic loss in Gaza. In a short piece for the Center for Strategic [...]
In a short New Atlanticist piece on “Hamas’ War Crimes,” I remind people that, while Israel isn’t the only party in the ongoing conflict in Gaza whose conduct deserves scrutiny. By flouting rules designed to protect noncombatants from the ravages of war, they themselves are making it more probable that their own people will be [...]
Ever since the Israeli attacks on Gaza began, some of the more hawkish elements among the punditry, such as Robert Kagan, have been claiming that Israel is not attacking Hamas so much as it is attacking Iran. Kagan states: Israel has just embarked on a land invasion of the Gaza Strip after a week of [...]
The Israeli invasion of Gaza continued today: ON THE ISRAEL-GAZA BORDER: Israeli troops commandeered high-rise buildings in three eastern districts of Gaza City on Monday, expelling residents and shooting Palestinian militants in the streets in the military’s furious effort to destroy Hamas’s fighting ability. European diplomats, meanwhile, poured into the region seeking a cease-fire. The [...]
As no doubt everyone knows by now, the IDF has moved tanks and troops into Gaza to attack Hamas directly. Israeli tanks and troops launched a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip Saturday night with officials saying they expected a lengthy fight with Hamas militants in the densely populated territory after eight days of punishing [...]
The Israeli bombardment of Hamas sites in Gaza continued today: GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip — Israel bombed a mosque it claimed was used to store weapons and destroyed homes of more than a dozen Hamas operatives Friday, but under international pressure, the government allowed hundreds of Palestinians with foreign passports to leave besieged Gaza. Israel [...]
Here’s how my predictions for 2008 fared: Predictions that came to pass Ron Paul won’t win a single state primary. If he runs as a Libertarian or other third party, he won’t get a single electoral vote. He won’t be elected president. Nothing of any substance will be accomplished by the Congress on any of [...]
As 2008 winds to an end, it’ll soon be time for the OTB staff to post its predictions for the coming year. First, though, is the painful look back at our predictions for 2008. Predictions that came to pass The Republicans will eventually nominate someone, pundit chatter about a divided base notwithstanding. “Ron Paul won’t [...]
In the comments thread to James’s post about the recent Israeli offensive against Hamas in Gaza, a commenter wondered if that were the crisis that VP-Elect Joe Biden warned about. No, it isn’t. Foreign policy has a way of overwhelming most American presidencies. Our constitution is written that way and Barack Obama’s presidency is very [...]
Not surprisingly, the massive Israeli strikes into Gaza are the prime topic of conversation in the blogosphere. The basic facts, as reported by the NYT: Waves of Israeli airstrikes destroyed Hamas security facilities in Gaza on Saturday in a crushing response to the group’s rocket fire, killing more than 225 — the highest one-day toll [...]