Why the Internet Will Fail

Newsweek presents a devastating essay by Clifford Stoll explaining why this newfangled Internet thing is unlikely to catch on. After two decades online, I’m perplexed. It’s not that I haven’t had a gas of a good time on the Internet. I’ve met great people and even caught a hacker or two. But today, I’m uneasy […]

EU Whining Belies US Decline Talk

Futurist Joel Kotkin is swimming against the recent American decline tide in forecasting a world where China will still trail the United States as an economic power in 2050.  Then again, as Matthew Yglesias points out, Kotkin thinks previous predictions of European preeminence proved “staggeringly off the mark,” even though the combined EU economy is […]

Climate Change Scandal: Raw Data Tossed

The controversy over the hacked climate change emails continues to gain steam, forcing the East Anglia team to reverse course and promise to release their raw data. The U-turn by the university follows a week of controversy after the emergence of hundreds of leaked emails, “stolen” by hackers and published online, triggered claims that the […]

Bush on Nation Building

In a sidebar on the Iraq War casualty predictions post, regular commenter Odograph observes, “I think ‘Bush was famously against nation-building’ is a retroactive political claim.” Not at all.  While it’s hard to imagine in hindsight, Candidate Bush ran against nation building and promised a “more humble foreign policy.” Remember, Realist Condi Rice was his […]

Iraq War Casualty Predictions

Tim Lambert linked some prewar Iraq War casualty predictions collected by John Hawkins in early 2003: If we go into Iraq, how many casualties do you expect to see (on the side of the US and our allies) John Hawkins: “Probably 300 or less” Charles Johnson:“Very few” Henry Hanks: “Less than 200” Laurence Simon: “A […]

Jim Cramer’s Crystal Balls

Dylan Matthews, guesting at Ezra’s place, provides this handy dandy chart to track Jim Cramer’s predictions on the Dow: He concludes, Actually, I’ll give Cramer some props. With the small exceptions of Boeing, GM, and IBM, the market tends to do the reverse of what he anticipates. Remember that Seinfeld episode where George decides to […]

Iceland’s Openly Gay Prime Minister

While the global financial crisis has spawned many predictions of political change, here’s one I’m betting no one saw coming: The World’s First Openly Gay Prime Minister. Not, I hasten to add, that there’s anything wrong with that.

2008 Predictions Scorecard (James Joyner)

As 2008 winds to an end, it’ll soon be time for the OTB staff to post its predictions for the coming year.   First, though, is the painful look back at our predictions for 2008. Predictions that came to pass The Republicans will eventually nominate someone, pundit chatter about a divided base notwithstanding. “Ron Paul won’t […]

Prognostication Scorekeeping

I’m in the process of preparing some 2009 predictions, in the hopes of providing a good opportunity for embarrassment. While I was doing that, though, I thought I’d go ahead and look back at my predictions for 2008 and see whether I should even bother. Here are my results: Predictions that came to pass Barack […]