A Basic Theory of Voting Behavior

And a reminder of the role of political parties.

Why Walker Will Win a Lot of Votes

Voting isn’t just about candidates.

Trump’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day

Makin’ his way the only way he knows how, that’s just a little bit more than the law will allow.

Lindsey Graham’s Abortion Stunt

He’s proposed a bill with no chance of passage seemingly timed to hurt his own party in the midterms.

CNN’s Centrist Gambit

What does objectivity mean in the Trump era?

Another Sane Conservative Pushed Aside

Original blogger AllahPundit is leaving Hot Air after 16 years.

Biden: MAGA Republicans Threaten Republic

The President delivered a rousing stump speech from Independence Hall.

American Civil War II is Unlikely but Not Impossible

A repeat of 1860 can’t happen. But something even worse could.

The Media Rage Machine

Shockingly, when the most-watched news outlet is built on divisiveness, the country becomes divided.

Trump Tipping Point?

As more details emerge about the documents he stole, defenders are falling away.

Nonhierarchical Parties and the Problems of Candidate Selection

American parties are coordination problems with shared branding.

American Ideological Self-Identification

“Moderate” is up, “Liberal” is down, and “Conservative” is static. What does it mean?

Private vs Public Opinion

What we believe and what we say we believe are often not the same.

Liz Cheney Walloped in Primary

The Trumper consolidation of their control of the GOP continues.

Liz Cheney’s Future

She’ll almost certainly be out of a job in January. Then what?

Democrats Funding MAGA Primary Candidates

Hardball politics or dirty pool?

Failed and Has-Been Politicians Start New Party

The Forward Party will almost certainly go nowhere.

Liz Cheney 2024?

She’s almost certainly going to lose her House seat. Can she get a promotion?

Independent State Legislature Theory

A theory floated in Bush v Gore could radically change American elections.

Defending the Constitution Against All Enemies, Foreign and Domestic

What should conservatives who can’t support the party of Trump do?

President Joe Biden delivers remarks at a Medal of Valor ceremony, Monday, May 16, 2022, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz) President Joe Biden delivers remarks at a Medal of Valor ceremony, Monday, May 16, 2022, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

The News is Bad for Biden

The nature of American political reporting distorts our perception of reality.

Trump’s Support is Down

Signs and portents?

Judicial Supremacy vs Popular Constitutionalism

Who should have the final say on the law of the land?

Dems Lose One Million Voters!

They should panic, right?

Minority Rule in a Winner-Take-All System

How long can the unsustainable be sustained?

A Key Role of Parties

Top Four likely makes things worse.

Fixing the Primary Problem

Could Alaska point the way to a solution?

Takeaways From the Takeaways

It’s not all about Trump.

Watergate at 50

Half a century have passed since a botched burglary changed history.

President Joe Biden delivers remarks on Earth Day prior to signing an executive order strengthening the nation’s forests, resilience to extreme weather events, and local economies, Friday, April 22, 2022, at Seward Park in Seattle. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on Earth Day prior to signing an executive order strengthening the nation’s forests, resilience to extreme weather events, and local economies, Friday, April 22, 2022, at Seward Park in Seattle. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

The Messaging is Medium

The Democrats have lots of problems. Salesmanship is pretty far down the list.

January 6 Committee Divided on Which Non-Starter Recommendations to Make

They’re taking their eye off the ball.

An Example of Utterly Awful Elections Analysis

The NYT and CA41 and yet another example of telling the wrong story.

Two Years After George Floyd

Very little progress has been made towards racial justice.

More Primary Examples: the PA GOP Governor’s Race

An ongoing series of observations.

Mass Shootings, Ideology, and Mental Illness

We know a lot less about the motives of spree killers than the public discourse suggests.

Podcast Recommendation (Plus: More on US Democracy)

Ezra Klein discusses the dynamics of American conservatism in historical perspective. Plus, he helps illustrate a key problem that we have in thinking about American politics (IMHO).

January 6 Committee Subpoenas Republican Leaders

An unprecedented manuever in response to unprecedented obstruction.

Another Example of Primaries in Action

The Ohio GOP Senate contest.

The Road to Here (and the Rocky Road Ahead)

The role of American political institutions.

Just Move If You Don’t Like it Here!

There are many barriers to true freedom.

The Least Dangerous Branch?

The apparently eminent demise of abortion rights has reignited an old debate.

Tucker Carlson White Supremacist Messaging

The face of Fox News is not the bow-tied buffoon from his “Crossfire” days.

New York’s Gerrymandering Disarmament

When doing the right thing is the wrong thing.

Professional Politicians Poor Prognosticators

Mitch McConnell and other senior Republican Senators foolishly believed their colleagues would do the right thing.

Utah Democrats Back Republican Evan McMullin in Bid to Unseat Trumper Mike Lee

Seeing no way to win under their own label, they’ve called a Hail Mary.

Will It Matter That Kevin McCarthy Was Caught Lying?

Anyone familiar with Betteridge’s law of headlines knows where this is going.

Mike Lee’s Texts

He was clearly willing to subvert the election.

A “Fairer” Map for the 2022 House?

A potentially more representative map that still underscores deep flaws in our system.

high-resolution photo of acceptance, alphabet, bisexual, blur, close up, colorful, culture, equality, focus, gay, gay pride, gay wallpaper, gender, gender identity, hands, holding, individuality, lesbian, letters, lgbt, lgbt wallpaper, lgbtq, LGBTQIA, pride month, queer, rainbow colors, transgender high-resolution photo of acceptance, alphabet, bisexual, blur, close up, colorful, culture, equality, focus, gay, gay pride, gay wallpaper, gender, gender identity, hands, holding, individuality, lesbian, letters, lgbt, lgbt wallpaper, lgbtq, LGBTQIA, pride month, queer, rainbow colors, transgender

CRT? Tired. Groomers? Wired!

The latest strategic moral panic from the far right

Trump Losing Sway with Republican Voters?

We can only hope.