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UK’s Labour Party up in the Polls

Via the BBC:  Labour leads Conservatives by 12 points in poll

Labour has forged a 12-point lead over the Conservatives for the first time in almost a decade, according to a Guardian/ICM poll.

Ed Miliband’s party now stands at 41% of the vote, up three points on ICM’s January figure, and the Tories are on just 29%, having slipped back four from 33% last month. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have sunk two points, to 13%, whereas Ukip has inched up three to 9% – setting a new record for Nigel Farage’s anti-European outfit in the Guardian/ICM series.

The Labour lead is the biggest – and the Conservative vote-share the smallest – in the polling series since May 2003, during the brief political bounce for Tony Blair which came between the felling of Saddam Hussein’s statue in Baghdad and first stirrings of civil war in Iraq and arguments about dodgy dossiers.

The good news for the Conservatives is that these numbers have not been taken in the context of an electoral campaign.

Assuming that that the current House of Commons serves it full five years, the next election will beheld in May of 2015.

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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is Professor and Chair of Political Science at Troy University. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. He is the author of Voting Amid Violence: Electoral Democracy in Colombia and is currently working on a comparative study of the US to 29 other democracies. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging at PoliBlog since 2003. Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. OzarkHillbilly says:

    Assuming that that the current House of Commons serves it full five years, the next election will beheld in May of 2015.

    Plenty of time for things to get worse for the Tories.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

  2. stonetools says:

    Since the Tories choked off a weak recovery and pushed the UK into a double dip recession with its austerity program, its decline in the polls is richly deserved.

    We should take note that the Republican economic proposals, such as they are, would have the same result in the US if implemented..

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

  3. Budgie93 says:

    We have fixed-term Parliaments now, so the election will be in 2015 regardless.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  4. @Budgie93: It was my understanding that even under the new law that early elections could still be called, but it is simply more difficult.

    Am I mistaken?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  5. al-Ameda says:

    @stonetools:

    We should take note that the Republican economic proposals, such as they are, would have the same result in the US if implemented..

    Exactly right. It is no coincidence that America’s recovery – though anemic – has generally far exceeded those of quite a few of the Eurozone economies. American conservatives want real spending cuts and are quite willing to tank the economy.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0