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Weiner Gains Ground In The Polls, But It Likely Won’t Be Enough

Former Congressman Anthony Weiner’s first week in the race for the Democratic nomination for New York City Mayor has gone very well for him, but he still seems to be far from his goal of winning:

Former Rep. Anthony Weiner has slashed away at frontrunner Christine Quinn’s lead in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, according to a poll released Tuesday, cutting her advantage in half in a little over a month.

Weiner, who formally entered the race last week, now draws 19 percent of the vote in the crowded primary field, according to the Marist University poll. Quinn, the city council speaker who is trying to become the city’s first openly gay mayor, draws 24 percent of the vote. Quinn’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error. In April, she held an 11-point lead over Weiner, 26 percent to 15 percent.

If no candidate receives 40 percent in the first round of voting, the primary would head to a run-off. There, Quinn’s lead is safer: she tops Weiner, 48 percent to 33 percent.

Given the fact that there are presently nine declared candidates for the Democratic nomination, it seems inevitable that there is going to be a runoff. Not all of these nine are serious contenders, of course, but they divide up the vote enough that it’s going to be difficult for any single candidate to get above 40% of the vote. If these numbers hold up, then it suggests that it will be difficult for the former Congressman to get beyond the final hurdle to his political redemption.

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About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. CSK says:

    He probably would say he was holding his own.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

  2. J-Dub says:

    Weiner is on the rise.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

  3. The comment thread for every Weiner post from now on is just going to be an escalating series of puns.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

  4. Gromitt Gunn says:

    Being hounded by Weiner at every turn is a lesbian’s worst nightmare.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  5. Ernieyeball says:

    He’s coming back…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  6. CSK says:

    I’m just waiting for him to open one of his speeches with the line: “Let’s get something straight between us.”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  7. stonetools says:

    Again, If Weiner simply does well, it’s a win for him. He’ll do even better in his next run.

    This poll is more evidence of the growing predominance of ideology over the personal in today’s politics. The NY voters seem to be willing to look beyond the jokes and “icky” (Doug’s designation, not mine) behavior to the issues, and to consider Weiner a serious candidate. Of course, since Quinn is a lesbian , she has her own personal issue. There are many who see a lesbian as being just as icky as Weiner’s behavior. But there are a lot fewer of those, too.

    I think that’s a good thing, myself. Shows a sign of a more mature and less hypocritical electorate.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  8. Gustopher says:

    Big Poll: Weiner growing — path to election is long and hard.

    I think if his name wasn’t Weiner, he would probably be able to pull off a comeback, but he really has no chance of getting past giving people the giggles.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  9. rudderpedals says:

    Advantage Weiner in first-past-the-post, right? And how about this runoff. “She tops Weiner”? Don’t worry, I’m staying tuned.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  10. CSK says:

    What difference does it make if Quinn is gay? She still wants to lick Weiner.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  11. legion says:

    When the polls turn cold, look out for Weiner shrinkage.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  12. legion says:

    @Doug Mataconis: Are you new here? :)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  13. Gromitt Gunn says:

    I have a feeling that when all is said and done, Weiner’s going to come up just about an inch short.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0