2008 Prediction Games
Michael Medved has a much-linked column assessing the Republican candidates’ chances of beating Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in November based on some “trial heat” surveys. He figures Mitt Romney is the worst of the plausible nominees and John McCain the best.
Kevin Drum has found survey data which backs up his hunch that Hillary Clinton would be just as effective against John McCain as Barack Obama, her negatives notwithstanding.
Based on the existing evidence, I’d say they’re all right. But while making informed guesses about the future is what pundits do, it’s complete folly.
The fact of the matter is that hardly anyone is yet paying attention. People have pretty firm ideas about Hillary Clinton, because she’s been in the spotlight so long, and that’s true to a much lesser extent for McCain. Otherwise, all the candidates — and that includes 2004 VP nominee John Edwards — are virtual unknowns to anyone who isn’t a political junkie.