Steven L. Taylor is a Professor of Political Science and a College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on Twitter
It seems that the UAB medical center has capacity for some 1150 patients. Forgive me for not following exactly where you wanted to go, but 124 Covid patients seems a fairly small number.
As to the difference that vaccination makes I’m sure we’re all convinced.
Well, if those in the UAB hospital are mostly infected with the Delta variant it may not be as concerning. If it’s omicron that put them there, there is reason for serious concern, because the projected peak is multiples of the current levels. And we’re still accumulating debt from exhaustion of our medical support people. It also means a shutdown, again, of “optional” medical procedures.
As to the difference that vaccination makes I’m sure we’re all convinced.
True, but we were never the ones that needed convincing, either. At times (most of them these days), I find myself fatigued by the futility of it all. On the brighter news side, I found a place to make an appointment and got my Covid booster today.
I’ll agree that on its face, UAB’s reporting 124/1150 patients as COVID (a smidge over 10%) doesn’t seem that bad. However, if you consider they use significantly more than 10% of the hospital’s overall resources, it becomes something that I, as a long-term immunocompromised consumer of medical treatment, find disheartening, disturbing, and more than a bit scary.
COVID patients, because of the virulence of their disease, require more staffing, space, and treatment. My understanding is that they have to be isolated. As several of the doctors in this forum have commented, ICU beds fill quickly, and if they’re full of COVID, they’re not available for your mama’s heart attack, your brother-in-law’s auto accident, or the immune compromised cancer patient waiting for surgery.
F*** idjits (the unvaxed). Yet another reminder why homo sapiens can’t have nice things.
@charon: Just to add further depth to your numbers, the percentage of fully vaccinated Alabamians 65 and older is 85%, and at least one dose is 98%. That age group is by far the most likely to require hospitalization. So it is roughly correct to say that the 70% hospitalized who are unvaccinated is drawn from only 15% of the population. And if they count single dose people in the vaccinated category, it’s even more striking. As is the 90% in the ICU.
This is so key. When vaccines were first available I was concerned that because the most vulnerable were vaccinated first, standard numbers would make the vaccines appear ineffective. My one shift at the local mass injection site (almost everyone over 65) made me even more concerned. But the vaccines are amazingly effective, even in the elderly, the immune suppressed, and the generally less healthy. Particularly at stopping severe disease.
Now if only everyone would get them so, for example, my friends with cancer and lupus and other conditions can get surgeries they can’t because our ICUs are full of anti-vaxxers and idiots.
Tracks pretty closely with data from UK, France and South Africa.
France: of 17,000 in hospital, there are 896 total on IC ventilation, and of those severe cases 80% are not fully vaccinated.
Looks like a lot of the unvaccinated are in for a bad time.
The main worry in UK is that the sheer volume of hospitalization at peak could be enough to exceed capacity, leading to increased deaths (including non-covid patients) due to shortages of general beds, ICU capacity, medical staff.
Also (secondarily) sheer number of infections is causing levels of positivity and actual non-hospitalised illness to cause serious staff shortages.
Especially among health workers, but also in public transport, supermarkets, teachers. Government has asked employers to plan for worst-case 25% absent staff.
So by eyeballing, mental arithmetic:
Hospital – 70% unvaccinated
ICU – 84% unvaccinared
Vented – 90% unvaccinated
One of the other threads here notes that vaccinated in the hospital are largely immunocompromised people.
It seems that the UAB medical center has capacity for some 1150 patients. Forgive me for not following exactly where you wanted to go, but 124 Covid patients seems a fairly small number.
As to the difference that vaccination makes I’m sure we’re all convinced.
Well, if those in the UAB hospital are mostly infected with the Delta variant it may not be as concerning. If it’s omicron that put them there, there is reason for serious concern, because the projected peak is multiples of the current levels. And we’re still accumulating debt from exhaustion of our medical support people. It also means a shutdown, again, of “optional” medical procedures.
@JohnMcC:
John. Google is your friend.
1150 patients? Maybe.
ICU beds? 25. They have 25 ICU beds. All of them have Covid patients.
https://www.uabmedicine.org/web/careers/nursing/browse-nursing-units/medical-services/medical-intensive-care-unit
@JohnMcC:
Pretty much where Charon went.
The regular commenters? Sure (although at least a couple still aren’t). Lurkers who don’t comment? Who knows?
And, as @EddieInCA notes: the ICU is full.
@JohnMcC:
True, but we were never the ones that needed convincing, either. At times (most of them these days), I find myself fatigued by the futility of it all. On the brighter news side, I found a place to make an appointment and got my Covid booster today.
@JohnMcC:
I’ll agree that on its face, UAB’s reporting 124/1150 patients as COVID (a smidge over 10%) doesn’t seem that bad. However, if you consider they use significantly more than 10% of the hospital’s overall resources, it becomes something that I, as a long-term immunocompromised consumer of medical treatment, find disheartening, disturbing, and more than a bit scary.
COVID patients, because of the virulence of their disease, require more staffing, space, and treatment. My understanding is that they have to be isolated. As several of the doctors in this forum have commented, ICU beds fill quickly, and if they’re full of COVID, they’re not available for your mama’s heart attack, your brother-in-law’s auto accident, or the immune compromised cancer patient waiting for surgery.
F*** idjits (the unvaxed). Yet another reminder why homo sapiens can’t have nice things.
@charon: Just to add further depth to your numbers, the percentage of fully vaccinated Alabamians 65 and older is 85%, and at least one dose is 98%. That age group is by far the most likely to require hospitalization. So it is roughly correct to say that the 70% hospitalized who are unvaccinated is drawn from only 15% of the population. And if they count single dose people in the vaccinated category, it’s even more striking. As is the 90% in the ICU.
@MarkedMan:
This is so key. When vaccines were first available I was concerned that because the most vulnerable were vaccinated first, standard numbers would make the vaccines appear ineffective. My one shift at the local mass injection site (almost everyone over 65) made me even more concerned. But the vaccines are amazingly effective, even in the elderly, the immune suppressed, and the generally less healthy. Particularly at stopping severe disease.
Now if only everyone would get them so, for example, my friends with cancer and lupus and other conditions can get surgeries they can’t because our ICUs are full of anti-vaxxers and idiots.
Tracks pretty closely with data from UK, France and South Africa.
France: of 17,000 in hospital, there are 896 total on IC ventilation, and of those severe cases 80% are not fully vaccinated.
Looks like a lot of the unvaccinated are in for a bad time.
The main worry in UK is that the sheer volume of hospitalization at peak could be enough to exceed capacity, leading to increased deaths (including non-covid patients) due to shortages of general beds, ICU capacity, medical staff.
Also (secondarily) sheer number of infections is causing levels of positivity and actual non-hospitalised illness to cause serious staff shortages.
Especially among health workers, but also in public transport, supermarkets, teachers. Government has asked employers to plan for worst-case 25% absent staff.