About That Questionable Delaware Poll Claiming That Castle Is “Vulnerable”
Supporters of Christine O’Donnell are likely to be crowing about this poll over the weekend:
Christine O’Donnell is trailing Rep. Mike Castle by only 2% among voters most likely to turnout in the Delaware Senate GOP primary, according to a Tea Party Express poll.
The poll, obtained by Hotline On Call, found that among GOP voters who indicated they are most likely to vote — or “10s” in polling lingo — Castle leads O’Donnell 43% to 41%.
The Tea Party Express released the top line of the poll on Thursday. That showed O’Donnell trailing Castle by nearly 6%, 43.7% to 38%.
These new numbers suggest that Castle is significantly more vulnerable than originally believed.
However, it is worth taking these numbers with a grain of salt. The poll was conducted by NSON Opinion Research with live interviewers. It surveyed 300 DE Republican voters and has a margin of error of +/- 5.7%.
I’ve known about this poll since last night thanks to emails from TPE that have been circulating around the Internet, but we still don’t have any links to the poll cross tabs or methodology. Moreover, a poll of 300 people in a state with an estimated voting age population of 657,000 people strikes me as incredibly small, and a 5.7% Margin of Error essentially means that the results are meaningless.
I’d love to see a poll of this race from a reliable outfit to see if O’Donnell is gaining any traction, but this ain’t it folks.