Americans Think Neither Biden Nor Trump Mentally Sound to be President
Shockingly, the current President's numbers are worse than his predecessor's.
Memeorandum points me to a Raw Story report with the headline “Fox News poll finds 56% doubt Trump’s ‘mental soundness’ to be president.”
A Fox News poll found that 56% of Americans do not believe former President Donald Trump has the “mental soundness” to be president.
A survey conducted by the conservative outlet gave Trump a 33-point lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
The survey also compared President Joe Biden’s character to Trump.
Biden had a 9-point advantage over Trump regarding honesty and an 8-point lead for empathy. 11% fewer people also believe that Biden is corrupt.
When it came to mental soundness, 56% said that Trump should not be president. As for Biden, 60% of those Fox News polled agreed he did not have the mental soundness to do the job.
Fox News noted that the difference between the two candidates was within the survey’s margin of error.
My initial reaction was amusement that a majority of those polled thought Trump mentally unfit to serve yet they preferred him to DeSantis by 33 points. But, of course, the first statistic is from all those surveyed and the latter from those who identified as Republican.
Regardless, I went to look at the poll itself and was even more amused at the Fox headline “Fox News Poll: More than half of voters think Trump is a strong leader, Biden isn’t.” The poll (conducted by Democratic-leaning Beacon Research and Republican-leaning Shaw & Company Research) sample seems to be fairly evenly split:
Forty-one percent of registered voters say they are more likely to participate in the Republican primary or caucus in their state next year and 40% the Democratic primary.
And, despite the Trumpy headline, the reporting is rather withering:
The survey also asks about traits for Biden and Trump, and the findings are stark. Majorities not only believe that both men lack honesty and empathy, but also the appropriate judgment and mental soundness to serve as the country’s leader.
The top characteristics ascribed to Trump are corrupt (55%) and strong leader (51%). For Biden, it’s caring (45%) and corrupt (44%) — even as a majority says he isn’t (53%).
Ouch.
“It’s hard to believe the choice Americans see for themselves — a corrupt strongman former president or a mentally shaky current president who is a little more empathic,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw.
That’s just mean. And, frankly, unfair to Biden.
While perceptions of Biden have held steady in recent months, he’s lost significant ground compared to before the 2020 election. Overall, only 33% think he is a strong leader. That marks a new low and is down 16 points from a high of 49% the month before he was elected.
It’s a similar story on other attributes. Since 2020, Biden’s down 14 points on having the judgment to serve effectively as president, down 12 points on both being honest and trustworthy and having the mental soundness to serve, and down 11 points on empathy.
Majorities believe Trump lacks honesty (67%) and empathy (61%), but he’s not slipping in those areas. About the same number thought he lacked those traits when he won in 2016.
A majority of 51% calling Trump a strong leader is notable for two reasons. First, it’s the only positive attribute that a majority agrees on. Second, he trounces Biden by 18 points.
Okay. But this is, after all, a poll commissioned by Fox News and, frankly, I’m not at all familiar with either of the firms in question despite being reasonably steeped in that milieu. So, I looked for other recent polls to see if this was a wild outlier.
I found a May 23 PBS report (“Where voters stand on Biden and Trump’s mental fitness as the 2024 race takes off“) based on a PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. (NPR also ran a story that day under the headline “More than 6 in 10 say Biden’s mental fitness to be president is a concern, poll finds.”)
A month into Joe Biden’s reelection campaign, 62 percent of Americans say that the question of his mental fitness is a real concern about his ability to be president. That’s 11 points higher than for the leading Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, whose mental fitness is a concern for 51 percent.
[…]
A Washington Post-ABC News poll earlier this month asked a similar question and found 63 percent of Americans believe Biden lacks the mental sharpness to serve as president – nearly identical to the latest number. But this poll found more concern for Trump’s mental fitness than the 43 percent in the earlier poll.
[…]
How voters view each candidate is also heavily influenced by party affiliation. Eighty-four percent of Republicans question Biden’s fitness; 78 percent of Democrats question Trump. And nearly two out of three Democrats say concerns about Biden are simply campaign rhetoric.
But a significant gap emerges among independent voters. By a more than two-to-one margin, independents are more likely to say Biden’s mental fitness is a real concern than a political strategy. Their view of Trump is more evenly split, 48 percent to 42 percent.
The top-line numbers are actually slightly worse than the Fox poll but, overall, pretty comparable.
While a wee bit older, the May 8 WaPo report “Biden’s mental sharpness polling decline” is still fresh enough to be relevant.
The 2020 presidential election featured our oldest matchup ever. And in the end, the age issue was basically a wash. Pre-election polls showed Americans were evenly divided on whether Joe Biden and Donald Trump had the physical and mental health to serve, and election exit polls showed the same.
An even older potential 2024 rematch is shaping up quite differently. This is now an issue that cuts significantly against President Biden, and it has been trending in that direction for a while.
A new Washington Post-ABC poll this weekend spotlighted this better than anything to date. While 54 percent said Trump had the mental sharpness it takes to effectively serve as president, just 32 percent said the same of Biden. The split was even bigger on physical health, with 63 percent saying Trump passed their test and just 33 percent saying Biden did.
Independents were significantly more likely to see Trump as being both mentally and physically fit, with only around 3 in 10 independents saying Biden was either of those things.
And while fewer than half said Trump, 76, was too old to be president, about 7 in 10 said the same of Biden, 80.
This is one poll, and it’s a poll that’s less friendly overall to Biden than others have been recently. But it’s hardly the only one to show this emerging split.
- The same poll previously showed a significant decline on the mental sharpness question for Biden. While 51 percent said Biden had the mental sharpness to be president in May 2020, that dropped to 40 percent in February 2022 before dropping to 32 percent today.
- A Pew Research Center poll last month also showed 68 percent said the phase “mentally sharp” didn’t describe Biden very well — up from 46 percent in March 2021. For comparison’s sake, fewer than half also said the same of Trump on the eve of the 2020 election.
- A Fox News poll in October showed 40 percent said Biden had the mental soundness to serve effectively as president — lower than at any point in Trump’s presidency.
- And an NBC News survey in January showed about twice as many Americans gave Biden poor marks as positive ones on having the necessary mental and physical health to be president. Just 28 percent gave him either a 4 or a 5 rating out of 5; but 54 percent gave him a 1 or a 2. That 26-point negative split was up from 17 points a year before. Only 13 percent gave Biden the highest rating.
That poll also reinforced something from the other polling: that this is likely to be one of Biden’s biggest liabilities.
In that poll, these were Biden’s highest negative numbers among seven issues tested, including trustworthiness, likability and knowledge to serve as president. Similarly, the Pew poll tested six issues; this one was Biden’s second-worst, behind his ability to inspire.
I’ve worried about Biden’s age since he kicked off his 2016 campaign. His verbal skills have clearly deteriorated from when he was Vice President and, arguably, since his inauguration. While he’s incredibly fit and active for an 80-year-old man, he simply can’t put in the long hours that many of his predecessors did.
Still, by all accounts, he’s still incredibly sharp and engaged. And his off-the-cuff jousting with Republican hecklers during this year’s State of the Union certainly seems to demonstrate mental vigor.
That the public perceives him as less mentally and physically fit than Trump is, frankly, just bizarre. But it’s a fact that he’s going to have to deal with.
Do the people who believe Trump is mentally fit keep up with his semi-literate ravings on Truth Social? If they did, they’d know that there’s something seriously wrong with this man.
Whatever the reason, I don’t think it will impact the race as long as Trump is the Republican nominee. Anyone else, though, and it will be a factor.
If large numbers of the public believe something which is objectively false, whose fault is that, and what can be done about it?
Large numbers of people believe all sorts of objectively false things, from flat earth to 9-11 conspiracies to just simple confusion about government spending, where majorities falsely believe that most spending is on foreign aid and welfare.
I pin a lot of the blame on major media outlets like NYT and WaPo, with their “Opinions vary about the shape of the earth” style of reporting.
ETA: At some point we as citizens need to have a serious discussion about what to do about Fox News.
It is a major threat to democracy, a nonstop libelous propaganda factory.
I’m open to the idea that some if not most of their content is not protected speech.
People are affected by what they see, read or hear from news media. Conservative media is relentlessly attacking Biden re mental fitness, so this is not any surprise.
I am curious how Trump will behave if he goes on trial re his various likely indictments. Some pretty wild behavior seems likely, which might affect perceptions of his mental health.
It’s not a mystery, it’s ageism. People are no more capable of judging old people accurately than they are at judging any other out group. Biden is objectively a remarkably effective president in nearly impossible circumstances. But he’s old, so that’s it, the prejudice trumps (heh) reality.
The ageism directed at Biden is particularly effective thanks to progressives who, despite loving 81 year-old Bernie Sanders, have relentlessly pounded on Biden’s age. Old, old, old, old, old. So old. Too old. How old is too old? Whatever age Biden is. The fact that Biden appears to have pulled off a significant degree of student loan reduction and even miraculously preserved it in this debt ceiling fight? Doesn’t matter: he’s old. In fact he’s so obviously old that he cannot possibly have done the things he’s clearly done, because to accept the reality of his accomplishment would require a rethinking of prejudice. And that ain’t happening.
It’s as stupid as any other category judgment: skin color, nationality, sex, height, weight. Some set of humans defined by some criteria must all be judged as a group and not as individuals. You cannot reliably extrapolate from a large set of humans to an individual, just as you cannot judge an entire set by a single member of that set. It’s intellectual laziness.
@charontwo:
His lawyers must be dreading that. If he gets on the stand, he’ll a) perjure himself from the word “go,” b) start attacking the prosecutors, c) start attacking the judge, d) scream that he’s the victim of a witch hunt…
I can see him being bound and shackled like Bobby Seale.
BoTh SIDeS hAvE deCRePIt noMiNeEs
@Michael Reynolds:
In absence of a thumbs up icon:
Nailed it !!!
@CSK:
Oh for the thumbs up button.
@Sleeping Dog:
Thank you. Even if Trump’s lawyers won’t let him near the stand–which I can’t imagine them doing, though if he overrules them, they have to–he may have to be restrained and gagged at the defense table.
@Michael Reynolds:
Nah, Biden is too old. And I’m saying that as someone who believes that he has been a remarkably effective president. So far.
The thing with aging is that it’s a bit like what they say about going bankrupt: first gradually then suddenly. Often, when (generally sharp and healthy) people are around 82-83 years old, there comes a point that they go from “remarkably fit for their age” to just plain “old.” It happens fast. And, of course, it can also happen years earlier.
I’m in the age cohort that has parents around that age. I’ve seen it play out like that many, many times.
To be honest, I think people in their seventies are already older than they should be for a job as demanding as the presidency. Reagan’s second term wasn’t pretty.
The thing is: if not Biden, who then?
If the MAGAs didn’t live in Bizarro World to begin with, they have certainly doublethinked their way there by now.
My once concern with Biden is the unpredictability of the severity of mental decline. I don’t know if there’s even a statistical model about it, like there is for risk of death within a year on aging.
To the latter, your risk of death within a year after age 20 climbs continuously, until it reaches plateau around age 80 or so. that is, at 90 you’re much more likely to die within a year than someone 70, 60 ,50, etc., but about as likely as someone 85, 87, 86, etc.
So, Biden might decline little between now and January 2029, or he may collapse to barely better than Benito the Cheeto with a few months. I don’t know if there is any way to tell.
@drj:
In every case? To every octogenarian? No exceptions, no outliers? I try hard to see what is and not what I expect will be. Is he doing his job well at age 80? Seems he is. Do many people decline rapidly around that age? Yes, many do. Many, not all. In fact, the Reagan example suggests that he went into decline in his mid-70’s, while Biden still seems able to manage a verbal joust with GOP yahoos at the SOTU despite being ten years older. RBG was still writing opinions in her mid-80s. Both Woodrow Wilson and FDR were finished in their 60’s.
@Michael Reynolds:
Sure. But presidents are elected to four-year terms. If statistical probability says that you will be much diminished (as an elected official) at the end of your term, should you still run? I’m not sure that’s fair to your voters.
The thing with Biden is that there appears to be nobody who could take his place – at least from an electability perspective.
Regardless, it’s not an ideal situation.
@drj: The thing is: if not Biden, who then?
Good point! But unless and until you tackle your own question, your complaints are entirely hollow.
Geez, when I was a kid the retort “You gotta better idea?” was a prerequisite for continuing a serious discussion. Someone who didn’t could be dismissed as a lightweight. Still true as I see it.
.
@drj:
Is there such a statistic (regarding age of elected officials and diminished capacity)?
If so, should Supreme court justices be age limited (they are – after all they are “elected” by the President & Senate
As noted above, ageism, some understandable. But the difference between Trump and Biden is a testament to the power of FOX/GOP.
Also, the issue with Trump isn’t mental deterioration, it’s that he’s a sociopath. That half the country can’t see he’s just an asshole is truly frightening. I read a few sites like Volokh and Marginal Revolution with a lot of conservative commenters. The hoops they’ll jump through to rationalize away any fact that doesn’t fit their worldview are truly impressive.
As noted above, ageism, some understandable. But the difference between Trump and Biden is a testament to the power of FOX/GOP.
Also, the issue with Trump isn’t mental deterioration, it’s that he’s a sociopath. That half the country can’t see he’s just an asshole is truly frightening. I read a few sites like Volokh and Marginal Revolution with a lot of conservative commenters. The hoops they’ll jump through to rationalize away any fact that doesn’t fit their worldview are truly impressive.
The if not Biden, then who question would sort itself out during the primary campaign, if the campaign is allowed to unfold normally. The whine that, Dems have no bench is a fallacy based on pundits looking at primarily senators, who are notoriously lousy candidates. There are several solid Dem governors in purple-ish states that would be good candidates.
The funny thing about governors as presidential candidates is that they become appealing, seemingly out of no where, as far as the voters are concerned, think Clinton and Carter.
@Sleeping Dog:
I think that people look at the executive experience a governor has had.
@Sleeping Dog: The problem is that Carter was the last true example of that. But 1976 was almost half a century ago. Clinton was reasonably well known by the time he ran in 1992—and benefitted heavily from most of the Democratic heavyweights of the day sitting it out because Bush the Elder was at 90+ percent approval in early 1991 in the aftermath of the Gulf War. Bush the Younger—who had huge name recognition and party backing because of his name— was the last governor to win the presidency and even that was nearly a quarter century ago.
I thought several of the Democratic governors in 2020 were pretty impressive and had the “moderate” credentials that got Biden the nomination. None gained the slightest bit of traction. Ditto John Kasich, Jeb Bush, and others on the GOP side in 2016.
For one thing, we’ve changed the fundraising rules to the huge advantage of sitting Senators, who get to transfer their war chests. Governors have to start from scratch, as state money can’t be used for federal campaigns. But I think the media environment has changed, too.
Several things can be true all at once, including the not-unreasonable statement that 80+ is not ideal for a president and that Biden is the best bet in the now.
@Michael Reynolds:
Or it’s the entire right wing infotainment industry screaming “Biden is senile!” nonstop for years at this point, and that sinking in through repitió rather than any direct observation.
If you have any interaction with a conservative in your life, you’ve heard it a thousand times by now.
Propaganda works.
@Gustopher: @gVOR08: The problem is that we have half a dozen polls showing ~60 percent of Americans thinking Biden’s mental acuity is subpar. I can’t blame more than 20-30 percent on Fox etc.
@Michael Reynolds:
And Diane Feinstein believes she’s been in the Senate everyday working for the past two months. But all y’all can decide this whatever way you want. I’m confident that each and every one of you are part of the vast majority who are exceptional. If you don’t want to draw a line because “it won’t be fair [to me]” then don’t.
Boomers and Silents–running the show til GOD “calls them home.”
@Bob@Youngstown:
Are we seriously discussing this?
As we all know, age is a significant risk factor for developing all kinds of diseases and infirmities. To give just one example:
And yes, I believe that SCOTUS justices should be subject to a mandatory retirement age (far more so than elected officials, by the way). The social security full retirement age of 67 seems reasonable.
@James Joyner: How many people believe Hillary Clinton is corrupt?
Propaganda has a network effect, and becomes part of the narrative, and then slowly internalized by the normies who get their propaganda second or third hand.
The alternative is that 40% of non-Right-Wing Americans are looking at Biden, and saying “that is a senile man” independently. This would probably require them to have never seen a senile person.
(Does that 40% of the non-Right-Wing Americans even have enough exposure to Biden to make a judgement? He’s pretty quiet, compared to his predecessor.)
@drj:
Sure, we are discussing this…..
from your citation 83% of the folks at Biden’s age Do NOT have Alzheimer’s. So very good probability that he does NOT have AD.
But those with a political agenda, or an age bias, will insist that Biden is.
Judgements about a person’s mental/physical capability of serving should be made by professionally trained , not by political commentators.
It should be obvious to anyone that Biden isn’t as sharp as he was just a couple years ago. Yes, he’s in great shape for his age, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to stay in great shape. It’s not ageism to point this out, and one can’t make the concerns go away by accusing people of yet another -ism or complaints about Fox News. People with eyes and ears can see that he has diminished since he took office, this isn’t some kind of grand conspiracy.
It’s perfectly legitimate to wonder how he will handle the campaign, which is grueling for people in their prime, as well as another four years in office. We’ve seen how previous, and much younger Presidents, aged in the role and the toll from the stress. For the campaign, in 2020 Biden got lucky by being able to campaign from home – he won’t have that option this time. One or more senior moments, stumbles, or something worse will cement the perception that already exists with relevant voters and hurt Biden at the margins. And if Biden faces a younger GoP candidate, then it likely becomes an even bigger issues in people’s minds.
And Biden may stay largely the same! He does have the best health care on the planet. But the point is that we don’t know how he will fare, and those who insist on only considering rosy assumptions for an 80 yo in one of the most difficult jobs on the planet are not fooling anyone but themselves. I hope Biden stays healthy and doesn’t diminish – but the reality is that there’s a decent chance that he won’t.
@Blue Galangal:.. BoTh SIDeS hAvE deCRePIt noMiNes…
I know that I have whined about this before. I think that someone even explained it to me. I forget. What is the purpose of this script? All it does is make it harder for me to read.
@Mister Bluster: If I recall, it’s supposed to mock people who use capital letters for emphasis without thinking about how they’re doing it.
@Andy:
A year from now the Republican presidential candidate will be very clear.
Those that have declared “in the running” will have to be campaigning hard against each other for the next year.
Until a viable Democrat declares, Biden just doesn’t really have to do much campaigning for himself.