Approval Polling and Starting to Think about 2024
Some numbers from the Emerson poll.
The Emerson poll reports: National Poll: Biden’s Approval Recovers Two Years into Term, Trump Maintains Lead over DeSantis in GOP Primary. Biden remains underwater, but is back to 44% approval after being down to 39%. Meanwhile, I think it is significant that Trump remains well ahead of DeSantis (55%-29%) among primary/caucus voters.
His 44% approval is within a point of his best number in the last twelve months (and 48% disapproval is his best mark int hat timeframe):
Still, the FiveThirtyEight average has him at 41.6%.
And for what it is worth:
President Biden trails former President Trump in a hypothetical 2024 Presidential match-up, 41% to 44%. Ten percent would support someone else and 4% are undecided.
[…]
In a hypothetical match-up between Biden and DeSantis, Biden leads by less than a percentage point, 40% to 39%. Thirteen percent would support someone else and 9% are undecided. Since the November poll, DeSantis has held his support at 39% while Biden has lost three percentage points, from 43% to 40%.
I would argue that Trump’s 44% is likely closer to his ceiling than Biden’s 41%.
It’s early, but not as early as you might think. Explicit campaigning on the GOP side in particular will be launching late Spring/this summer for certain (after all, we are less than a year away from primary voting). Of course, DeSantis is currently engaging in implicit campaigning via his headline generation in Florida.
For what it’s worth, a UNH poll of R primary voters in NH had DeSantis over Trump 42% to 30% with 11 other named candidates splitting the rest.
https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/727/
Trump will be here tomorrow and the anecdotal reports are that he is having trouble getting R convention goers to commit to him.
@Sleeping Dog:
Chris Sununu clearly wishes Trump would go elsewhere. Reminder: Stay the hell out of Salem tomorrow.
Then Trump is jetting to Columbia, S.C., where I get the distinct feeling they’d also rather he didn’t.
@CSK:
Sununu was particularly blunt about trump the other day and he’s not high on DeSantis either. He really wants the party to turn away from the MAGAts and MAGAt adjacent candidates as he recognizes that they are losers.
@CSK:
I’d like to know how TFG got invited. I have a suspicion that Trump invited himself and that put the NH party in a tough place
@Sleeping Dog:
Yes. And he probably invited himself to South Carolina as well.
Of course, as you well know, the national head-to-heads aren’t even the whole story. We really need to know the breakdowns in the swing states, which we won’t have serious polling on for quite some time because of the sheer expense.
@James Joyner: Quite true.
@CSK: Yes, but unlike NH, in SC, the two most important Republicans (Henry McMaster and Lindsey Graham) have fallen all over themselves in an effort to welcome TFG.
In 2023,
after all that we’ve been through,
with lived experiences allowing comparison between the two men’s character, statesmanship, & worldview,
if that polling result doesn’t cause to despair for the future of American, I would like a little of whatever you are smoking.
@Scott F.: Partisanship is one helluva drug.