Third Quarter GDP Revised Upwards
The Bureau of Economic Analysis has revised its advance estimate for third quarter GDP up from 1.6% to 2.2%. This is good news, but it still points to a slowing economy.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis has revised its advance estimate for third quarter GDP up from 1.6% to 2.2%. This is good news, but it still points to a slowing economy.
Just curious, but when is the last time a quarterly economic estimate wasn’t revised upwards? 2000?
Hmmm, I don’t know you might be correct. An institutional bias–good news is easier to take than bad?
The economy is running at an annualized rate 17% above the average for the last 9 presidential terms (3.5 vs 3.0 average starting with Nixon’s first term). If we turn in a 1.7 or better in the fourth quarter, we will have an above average GDP for 2006. My suspicion is we will get that 1.7 or better. If we just get another quarter like this, we will end up at 3.15 GDP for the year. Get a quarter like second quarter and we end up with a 3.25 GDP for 2006. Get a block buster quarter like 1st quarter and we end up with a very strong 4.0 GDP.
And as Charles notes, the trend has been for the numbers to go up as they review their work.