Outside the Beltway

McCain Trails Obama Among Iowa Republicans

James Joyner · Thursday, August 9, 2007 · 3 comments

The University of Iowa surveyed the state’s registered Republicans in anticipation of Friday’s straw poll. Among their findings:

McCain’s support has collapsed in Iowa. His support among registered Republicans dropped from 14.4 percent in March to 1.8 percent in July-August. UI political scientists note that McCain has been passed in popularity not only by former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., who earned 5.2 percent support, but also by a Democratic challenger, Obama, who is supported by 6.7 percent of Republicans. [emphasis mine]

Like Steve Benen, I find this astounding.

Granted, McCain has declined to campaign in Iowa thus far and other questions in the survey show he is being, as the poll’s director notes, “punished” for that decision. Still, there’s no way for McCain’s team to spin this as good news.

FILED UNDER: Uncategorized, Barack Obama, Fred Thompson, Iowa, John McCain, Republican Party, Steve Benen

About James Joyner

James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

se7en says:

Thursday, 9 August 2007 at 15:38

Your RSS Feed shows more than what’s written above. I can’t but help notice this line:
“Clearly, Romney is putting a lot of energy into a seemingly meaningless content and his two most serious rivals are not.”

Again, with your Romney bias…

It’s meaningless? Right, right… The early primary states really have no impact on the primary.
James Joyner says:

Thursday, 9 August 2007 at 15:46

Your RSS Feed shows more than what’s written above

I decided I was duplicating too much of what Benen had written by analyzing the other results.

Again, with your Romney bias…

It’s an opinion site . . . .

It’s meaningless? Right, right… The early primary states really have no impact on the primary.

The Iowa Caucuses (currently scheduled for January) aren’t meaningless but the Iowa Straw Poll (coming this week!) is.

Giuliani, McCain snub Iowa straw poll

Several longshot GOP candidates are hoping to score a breakthrough by doing well in the straw poll — among them, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo.

Dennis Goldford, a professor of politics at Drake University in Des Moines, said Giuliani’s snub of the Ames contest made sense. “Even Republicans, when they’re honest, will say this is just a farce, because the campaigns spend a ton of money not just on the tents and the food but on buses to get their supporters there,” he said.
yetanotherjohn says:

Thursday, 9 August 2007 at 18:05

Positive McCain spin:

“The polling indicates that McCain will register no votes in the Ames poll. As such, if he registers no votes, he will have met expectations. If he registers even one vote, he will have exceeded expectations. Thus, McCain is poised to have the highest ‘exceeded expectations’ percentage of the entire GOP”

You can always find a positive spin, just some times you have to pull really hard on the starter rope to get enough spin.