Bachmann Leads in Oregon and Montana Polls
Via PPP: More Bachmann Surge
In Oregon Bachmann gets 29% to 28% for Romney, 10% for Ron Paul, 9% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Herman Cain, 6% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Jon Huntsman. In Montana she leads with 25% to 22% for Romney, 11% for Gingrich, 10% for Paul, 9% for Pawlenty,8% for Cain, and 4% for Huntsman.
At this early stage, a curiosity more than anything.
The main reason this jumped out at me, however, was that there was a discussion in a thread over the weekend that Bachmann could not win Montana (although a believe that claim was intended to refer to a general election campaign, not a primary).
Two other observation:
1) How sad must Pawlenty be after every poll is released? (And yes, I know it is early).
2) Not good for Huntsman, given that that is his neck of the woods.
There is nothing to indicate Huntsman or Pawlenty are all that competitive other than the fact that the media and elite conservative opinion-makers thinks they’re just dandy. Bachmann has the reverse problem: significant measured support from the rank-and-file, but little support among elite opinion-makers.
@lunaticllama,
I think that there is something to that, yes.
Despite the old adage that everyone loves an underdog, I’m not sure anyone loves these particular underdogs.
I think the media has to acknowledge that, for better or worse, Bachmann is a top contender. Heh.
I’d be *somewhat* concerned if I was a Romney staffer. Assuming the predicted implosion of Gingrich and Cain prior to any primary, and the continued downward spiral of Pawlenty, thats somewhere in the area of ~20% of voters that are freed up.
Cain’s seem like they might go to Romney (though Ron Paul might really benefit here). Pawlenty’s on the other hand could go Bachmann due to a more immediate value overlap.
And if Bachmann begins to land blows that stick in terms of Conservative values on Romney, I could see them at least splitting Newt’s votes.
Of course this is all assuming no one else enters the race.
I’m not surprised by Montana, which I don’t think that Romney is suited for. I was a bit surprised that the margin was so close, but I think Ron Paul’s 9% would probably favor Bachmann over Romney by a pretty strong margin. And while Montana is kinda-sorta in Huntsman’s neck of the woods, he has the same problems as Romney in that state (and would in Idaho, too, were it not for the Mormon population there).
Oregon does surprise me a little.