Battleground States Polls

TRACKING THE BATTLEGROUND STATES (Ron Gunzberger, Politics1)

FLORIDA (WBBH-TV/Mason-Dixon): Bush-48%, Kerry-44%. FLORIDA (Quinnipiac College): Bush-46%, Kerry-42%. Bush lead still holding in Florida.

IOWA (Univ. of Minnesota): Kerry-48%, Bush-47%. Can Governor Vilsack deliver for Kerry?.

MAINE (WCSH-TV/SurveyUSA): Kerry-49%, Bush-47%. Nader and Cobb could be factors here.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG): Kerry and Bush tied at 47% apiece.

NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac College): Kerry-49%, Bush-46%. Kerry still leads, but he should be running better than this in Jersey.

OHIO (ARG): Kerry-48%, Bush-47%. Lead switches again, but still way too close to call.

NEW MEXICO (Albuquerque Journal): Kerry-46%, Bush-43%.

PENNSYLVANIA (KDKA-TV/SurveyUSA): Kerry-49%, Bush-47%. PENNSYLVANIA (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/Keystone): Kerry-48%, Bush-41%. PENNSYLVANIA (ARG): Kerry-48%, Bush-46%. Three new polls give PA to Kerry, so the see-sawing lead switches again here.

These numbers pretty much track with other polls I’ve seen, although I’m still dubious about polls showing Kerry ahead in New Mexico.

Clearly, three states are the key: Pennyslvania, Ohio, and Florida. By most accounts, Bush is ahead in Florida, although I continue to worry about irregularies there. The Democrats still believe, contrary to all evidence, that it was “stolen” from them in 2000 and seem determined to do whatever it takes to win it. I expect substantial absentee voting by nonresidents who managed to register while on vacation or wintering there, felons, and other ineligibles. Pennyslvania is winnable for Bush but Kerry has to be favored. Ohio is a true toss-up; it may well be the key bellweather in this election.

Several races tightened or swung to Kerry after the first debate. Bush needs a solid performance in tonight’s debate in St. Louis to stop his slide and, hopefully, put the race back to where it was a few days ago. He’s got the ability to pull that off.

Update: I’ve added a link labeled “POLLS” to the navbar right under my site logo. It includes a roundup of links to some prominent presidential polls, electoral college roundups, professional polling firms, and some general information on polling and sampling methodology.

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James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.