Battleground States Polls

TRACKING THE BATTLEGROUND STATES (Ron Gunzberger, Politics1)

FLORIDA (WBBH-TV/Mason-Dixon): Bush-48%, Kerry-44%. FLORIDA (Quinnipiac College): Bush-46%, Kerry-42%. Bush lead still holding in Florida.

IOWA (Univ. of Minnesota): Kerry-48%, Bush-47%. Can Governor Vilsack deliver for Kerry?.

MAINE (WCSH-TV/SurveyUSA): Kerry-49%, Bush-47%. Nader and Cobb could be factors here.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG): Kerry and Bush tied at 47% apiece.

NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac College): Kerry-49%, Bush-46%. Kerry still leads, but he should be running better than this in Jersey.

OHIO (ARG): Kerry-48%, Bush-47%. Lead switches again, but still way too close to call.

NEW MEXICO (Albuquerque Journal): Kerry-46%, Bush-43%.

PENNSYLVANIA (KDKA-TV/SurveyUSA): Kerry-49%, Bush-47%. PENNSYLVANIA (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/Keystone): Kerry-48%, Bush-41%. PENNSYLVANIA (ARG): Kerry-48%, Bush-46%. Three new polls give PA to Kerry, so the see-sawing lead switches again here.

These numbers pretty much track with other polls I’ve seen, although I’m still dubious about polls showing Kerry ahead in New Mexico.

Clearly, three states are the key: Pennyslvania, Ohio, and Florida. By most accounts, Bush is ahead in Florida, although I continue to worry about irregularies there. The Democrats still believe, contrary to all evidence, that it was “stolen” from them in 2000 and seem determined to do whatever it takes to win it. I expect substantial absentee voting by nonresidents who managed to register while on vacation or wintering there, felons, and other ineligibles. Pennyslvania is winnable for Bush but Kerry has to be favored. Ohio is a true toss-up; it may well be the key bellweather in this election.

Several races tightened or swung to Kerry after the first debate. Bush needs a solid performance in tonight’s debate in St. Louis to stop his slide and, hopefully, put the race back to where it was a few days ago. He’s got the ability to pull that off.

Update: I’ve added a link labeled “POLLS” to the navbar right under my site logo. It includes a roundup of links to some prominent presidential polls, electoral college roundups, professional polling firms, and some general information on polling and sampling methodology.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2004, Public Opinion Polls
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Battleground States Polls

TRACKING THE BATTLEGROUND STATES (Ron Gunzberger, Politics1)

MISSOURI (KSDK-TV/SurveyUSA): Bush-49%, Kerry-47%. Kerry has considerably narrowed the gap here.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ of NH): Bush-50%, Kerry-45%. Bush retakes see-sawing lead.

NORTH CAROLINA (WBTV-TV/SurveyUSA): Bush-52%, Kerry-45%. Despite “favorite son” Edwards as the VP candidate, Bush still holds a decent lead.

OHIO (WKYC-TV/SurveyUSA): Kerry-49%, Bush-48%. Kerry has trailed in most recent Ohio polls.

WASHINGTON (KING-TV/SurveyUSA): Kerry-54%, Bush-43%. Kerry continues to hold a comfortable edge.

I think it’s safe to say that Washington isn’t really a “swing state” and never really was. I’m dubious of the Missouri numbers here as well, as they seem to be an outlier. RealClear Politics still shows Bush with a 6.7% lead, although his three polls are older. More revealing, the Kerry camp seems to think so, too:

The Kerry campaign announced Wednesday it was canceling television ads scheduled to start running on Oct. 5 in Arizona, Missouri, Louisiana and Arkansas after campaign advisers concluded he wasn’t doing well enough in those states to justify the cost.

My guess is that, of the above states in contention, Kerry will concentrate his efforts in Ohio and New Hampshire. Indeed, it’s hard to conceive of him winning the election without Ohio.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2004
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Ken z says:

    Your poll data is 10 days old? Why????

Battleground States Polls

TRACKING THE BATTLEGROUND STATES (Ron Gunzberger, Politics1)

FLORIDA (WFOR-TV/SurveyUSA): Bush-51%, Kerry-46%. The lead in the Sunshine State continues to swing back and forth.

NEVADA (/SurveyUSA): Bush-50%, Kerry-46%. Bush continues to hold a slight edge.

NEW JERSEY (WABC-TV/SurveyUSA): Kerry-50%, Bush-45%. NJ continues to remains surprisingly close in what is normally a solid Dem state. NEW JERSEY (Bergen Record/Research 2000): Kerry-50%, Bush-42%, Nader-2%.

OHIO (Columbus Dispatch): Bush-51%, Kerry-44%, Nader-4%. Ohio is to the Bush campaign what NJ or PA are to the Kerry campaigns: a costly effort to hold a base it should normally hold.

PENNSYLVANIA (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette/Mason-Dixon): Kerry-45%, Bush-44%. Still remains neck-and-neck.

RealClear Politics has an archive of the latest polls in all the battleground states. It shows Bush leading Florida by an average of 6, Ohio by 3.3, Colorado by 6, and Pennsylvania by 0.7. Kerry leads New Jersey by 4.6, Michigan by 0.5, and Oregon by 2.7. It lists several other “battleground” states, such as Missouri and Washington, that are being dominated by one or the other.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2004
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Battleground States Polls

· · 2 comments

RealClearPolitics has an updated list of the average of the serious polls in each of the battleground states:

Methinks I spot a trend.

This is a GIF. Links work at the original, where there is also extended analysis.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2004
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Bill K says:

    Does it have anything to do with the fact that, in 5 of the 14 states Bush is winning, his margin is less than the precentage Nader is receiving?

  2. McGehee says:

    Right, Billk — Nader’s candidacy is all a plot by Karl Rove. [evil, maniacal cackle]