Biden and Sanders Lead Way-too-Early Iowa Polling
The former Vice President is seen as "just right" by likely Caucus goers.
Des Moines Register (“Iowa Poll: Not even in the race, Joe Biden leads herd of Democrats; Bernie Sanders close behind“):
Joe Biden has yet to enter the 2020 presidential race — he’s been weighing the decision in a closely watched will-he-or-won’t-he saga — but the former vice president still leads the pack in Iowa.
According to a new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers, 27 percent say Biden is their first choice for president. That’s down slightly from the 32 percent who said the same in December, but it tops the 19 other declared and potential candidates tested.
Biden has a 2-percentage-point advantage over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Though that’s within the poll’s 4.9 percentage point margin of error, other numbers bode well for the former vice president and suggest a stronger advantage over Sanders. The poll of 401 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted March 3 through 6.
“If I’m Joe Biden sitting on the fence and I see this poll, this might make me want to jump in,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of the Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “I just can’t find much in this poll that would be a red flag for Joe Biden.”
Seventy percent of respondents say they believe Biden’s political views are neither too liberal nor too conservative, but instead, are “about right” — the highest percentage of any candidate tested.
And 64 percent — including a majority in every demographic group — say they think Biden’s experience is an asset and he should enter the race. About a third of respondents say his time has passed and he should not run.
At this point, I’d be shocked if Biden doesn’t run. He clearly believes he’s the best man for the job, both in terms of qualifications and ability to take on Donald Trump. His family wants him to run. Really, his chief obstacle seems to be his age–he’s 76 years old and would be 78 by the time he takes the oath of office—but he’s only four years older than Trump and seems to be in better shape.
The fluctuations within the margin of error since the December poll are completely meaningless. That a whopping 70 percent says he’s “just right” ideologically is not.
Obviously, we’re still almost a year out from the Caucuses. (Which remain a really stupid, unrepresentative way of allocating delegates.) Most of the “19 other declared and potential candidates tested” are relative unknowns whose support is likely much more malleable than Biden’s. Still, I’d rather be in his position than theirs.