Biden Wins Michigan’s 16 Electors

He needs one more state to hit the magic 270.

CNN and ABC are among the outlets calling Michigan for Joe Biden.

FiveThirtyEight’s Maggie Koerth:

ABC News is now projecting Michigan for Biden, with the former vice president leading by 67,140 votes. If that margin were to hold, it’s large enough that an automatic recount would not be triggered. But the Michigan recount rules are a little vague as to when a losing candidate can ask for one — saying that it can be done if the loser has “a reasonable chance of winning the election.”

It doesn’t matter. Absent chicanery, Biden would easily win a recount.

With almost everyone giving Arizona to Biden, this brings him to 264, six shy of the threshold for winning the Presidency. He currently has a sizable lead in Nevada, whose 6 Electors would put him there. So would Pennsylvania’s 20 or Georgia’s 16. My strong guess is that he’ll win all three.

Trump’s only plausible pickups at this point are Alaska, who’s 3 Electoral votes inexplicably haven’t been put into his column despite its history and his massive lead in the count, and North Carolina, where he maintains a very thin lead with lots of votes to count.

This thing is all but done.

FILED UNDER: Campaign 2020, US Politics
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. JohnSF says:

    James, I really hope you are right, but are you so sure about Arizona?
    Looking at the 270-to-Win figures they give Trump the edge, slightly.
    And one lesson from this indigestion provoking day is that the margins seem to break Trump’s way if anything.
    Grant Biden Nevada; still, AZ, GA, NC all look too iffy to rely on.
    (I know Fox are predicting Biden in AZ, but…)

    I still think it looks like Pennsylvania is the field where this will be won or lost.
    (Hope I’m wrong, for the sake of my nerves)

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  2. grumpy realist says:

    The fact that Trump is winning any states at all is depressing.

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  3. James Joyner says:

    @JohnSF: Fox called it first and AP got on board pretty quickly. I don’t understand why others haven’t but it really looks like a lock at this point given where the handful of outstanding votes are.

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  4. Jay L Gischer says:

    I read reports (Wait, I think that was you that reported it!) that the (White House/Trump Campaign) raised hell with Fox News for the AZ call. Maybe they intimidated some other outlets from making the same call?

    His campaign may believe that he’s lost AZ, but he is a merchant of uncertainty and doubt. It’s part of his playbook. Keep ’em guessing.

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  5. Beth says:

    @JohnSF:

    NPR has Biden winning in AZ and they seem to be awfully timid about this thing.

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  6. JohnSF says:

    Just had a look at Politico’s Arizona results page.
    That’s showing Biden ahead 51%/47.6% at 84% estimated count.
    So I suppose if the late ones are mail ballots the guess would be they would break more for Biden?
    Also, slower count in largest population areas; again favours Biden.

    Tempt me much more and I might just develop a case of optimism. 🙂

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  7. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @grumpy realist: Yep, we got a long row to hoe.

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