Biden’s Lead is Historic

He has the largest lead of any challenger since modern polling began in 1936.

CNN polling analyst Harry Enten points out just how unusual Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s advantage over sitting President Donald Trump is.

Former Vice President Joe Biden is dominating President Donald Trump in the latest polls. No, the election is not over yet, and Trump still has a non-negligible chance of winning.

But a look through history reveals that Biden is in a better position at this point than any challenger since 1936, when the first scientific polls were taken in a presidential race.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Sunday was the latest poll to indicate Biden’s strength. Biden led Trump by a 55% to 43% margin among likely voters. The poll was the third high quality national poll published this week that had Biden up by at least 10 points and above 50%.

The other two being from CNN/SSRS and Fox News.Indeed, the average ofpolls has Biden at around 52% or 53% and up by somewhere between 10 and 11 points. This is an unprecedented position for a challenger with a mere 23 days to go until Election Day.

Granting that polls have gotten a whole lot more “scientific” since 1936, that’s a whole lot of Presidential elections.

In the 21 previous presidential elections since 1936, there have only been five challengers who led at this time. Of those five, only one (Bill Clinton in 1992) was ahead by more than 5 points. None of those five were earning more than 48% of the vote in the polls.

In other words, Biden is the first challenger to be above 50% at this late juncture in the campaign.

And, for the hundredth time, this isn’t 2016.

This also continues to mark a massive difference with the 2016 campaign. While Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by as high as 7 points in October 2016, she never came anywhere close to approaching 50% of the vote. Trump merely had to win the lionshare of the undecided or third party voters (who would bolt their candidate) to earn a victory in 2016.

Even if every undecided or current third party voter went to Trump now, he’d still be down about 5 to 6 points nationally. That’s never been the case with an incumbent since 1936 at this point.

Of course, for the thousandth—if not millionth—time, we don’t elect Presidents by a national popular vote.

There are very few universes in which Trump could win the Electoral College, if he were to lose nationally by 5 to 6 points.

New polls out on Sunday from CBS News/YouGov demonstrate that Biden’s above 50% in some key battlegrounds. He leads 52% to 46% in Michigan and Nevada. In Iowa, a state that Trump took by 9 points in 2016 and is not anywhere close to must win for Biden, the race is tied at 49%.

A look under the hood reveals why Biden is in such a strong position. Since the coronavirus pandemic began, Covid-19 has either been, or been within the margin of error of being the nation’s most important problem in Gallup polling.

It’s true, as I’ve noted many times over the years, that re-electing our Presidents is our default position. We’ve had three two-term Presidents in a row and five two-term Presidents elected in my lifetime, as opposed to only two* defeated.

The three challengers in the polling era (Jimmy Carter in 1976,* Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1992) who defeated incumbents have all been trusted more than the incumbent to deal with what Americans thought was the nation’s most important problem. None, however, were trusted by more than 50% of the voters.

The election is three weeks from tomorrow. Biden has led every single day, mostly by a substantial margin. Barring cataclysmic events or the most massive voter suppression effort in modern American history, he’s going to win and win big.

___________________

*Because we’re talking about slightly different things, Enten counts Gerald Ford and I don’t. Ford was never elected in his own right in the first place, so I put him in a separate category.

FILED UNDER: *FEATURED, Campaign 2020, Joe Biden, Public Opinion Polls, US Politics
James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor and Department Head of Security Studies at Marine Corps University's Command and Staff College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm vet. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Michael Reynolds says:

    Oh, sure, if Trump were merely human he’d be going down to a humiliating defeat. But he’s not! He’s Jeeeeesus-uh reborn-uh, hallelujah! He’ll mount his faithful steed Covfefe, raise a goblet of ambrosia to his lips – slowly and with both hands – draw his sword, the fabled Benito, then ride forth to slay Blacks and gays and liberals and smart people with educations, and women and foreigners and young people and Muslims and every single kind of American that any wife-beating meth-head in an Arkansas trailer park wants slain.

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  2. Kathy says:

    And for the gazillionth time, all the swallows, and defrosted ground, and opening flowers, and increased insect activity, and planting, etc. kind of do make a spring 😉

    To repeat myself: I honestly think many of us, myself most definitely included, don’t want to jinx it.

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  3. Kylopod says:

    It’s true, as I’ve noted many times over the years, that re-electing our Presidents is our default position.

    But that’s qualified by the fact that presidents who have run for reelection amid big disasters have usually (perhaps always) lost. Hoover had the Depression. Carter had stagflation and the Iran Hostage crisis. Bush Sr.’s case wasn’t quite as clear-cut, but he was presiding over high and climbing unemployment due to a recent recession. Ford may be an exception, but he’s really in his own category, as he was never elected to begin with and he was hurt by Watergate (especially the Nixon pardon), and even then he just barely lost.

    I think also that we tend to forget the examples of Truman in 1952 and LBJ in 1968, both of whom declined to run for reelection while they were still eligible, due to an unpopular war. I think Truman would almost certainly have lost had he run. With LBJ it’s not quite as clear but he was certainly not very popular.

    Certainly I can’t think of an example of a president who has won reelection amid any of these types of crises. While it’s true that a majority of presidents who have run for reelection have won, it was pretty much always when the country was doing at least okay in the eyes of the public.

    Will this be yet another precedent that Trump goes on to shatter? We’ll see very soon.

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  4. Polls do not capture voter intimidation, suppression, and election fraud.
    Nor do they capture all the legal hijinks Bill Barr has lined up for the post-election battle.
    Biden needs to act like he is down 20 points.
    Whatever you are doing, it isn’t enough.

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  5. Mister Bluster says:

    @Kylopod:..Ford may be an exception, but he’s really in his own category, as he was never elected to begin with and he was hurt by Watergate (especially the Nixon pardon), and even then he just barely lost.

    Despite getting the sadist vote!

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  6. Mister Bluster says:

    test

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  7. Mister Bluster says:

    test

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  8. Mister Bluster says:

    Gotta’ do something about the EDIT function.

    Good grief. No edit function. Edit Function.

    ReplyReply
  9. Sleeping Dog says:

    @Mister Bluster:

    After I post, I have no edit function, nor the HTML shortcut buttons for a new post. When I refresh the page the edit functions, timer and buttons appear.

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  10. What voter suppression looks like…
    https://twitter.com/AndyPierrotti/status/1315679588693966849

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  11. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Daryl and his brother Darryl: “It doesn’t matter how long it takes…we’re voting like our life depends on it,“ said a voter.

    It would seem that people have finally awakened to the fact that Republicans wouldn’t try so hard to stop them from voting if their vote didn’t matter.

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  12. inhumans99 says:

    This thread just reminds me that I will kiss the ground in joy when the election is finally over in a few short weeks, even if Trump wins I will be so happy the election is over and done.

    If Trump wins we will get the mother of large sized Covid bailout packages as that will get Trump started off on the right foot with not just liberals but his base who desperately need the help.

    We then wait four more long years and put up with some whining that he should get another 4 because only he can continue to keep Making America Great Again and just accept that we should be in a position to get a much younger Democratic candidate elected in 2024.

    That being said, I do look forward to Trump tweeting about how Clinton should be locked up while everyone else (his Base included) just goes huh, wait, what, why is our President still tweeting about Clinton in 2024 about something that happened in 2016, I would like the GOP to see Trump very visible crack up while in office so it sours them on that idea that old cranky white guys are the savior of the United States.

    Right now the GOP is all in on racist old white guys, and maybe they will still be all in in 2024 which means we have to stress that Trump might be a three term President but I am pretty confident folks will finally be fed up with Trump and send him packing in 2024. Look, at the end of the day I have a job and still have my health under a Trump Presidency so things could be worse. We will survive if Trump is re-elected.

    Did I mention how glad I will be when the election is finally over?

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  13. Scott F. says:

    @Daryl and his brother Darryl: I share your concerns, but by that tweet the attempted suppression doesn’t appear to be working. It gives one hope.

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  14. Mister Bluster says:

    @Sleeping Dog:..After I post, I have no edit function, nor the HTML shortcut buttons for a new post. When I refresh the page the edit functions, timer and buttons appear.

    Randomly after I post the HTML shortcut buttons may or may not appear. Randomly after I post the edit functions, timer and edit buttons may or may not appear.
    Sometimes all functions and buttons appear after I post the first time. Sometimes the edit function never appears no matter how many page reloads I do. I usually give up at ten.
    Above I posted at 13:02, 13:04, 13:07 and 13:11. No EDIT function after the first three posts and two or three page reloads for each post. The EDIT function appeared with staggered Time Remaining on all four posts when I hit Post Comment on the 13:11 post and reloaded the page twice.

    I just don’t recall this inconsistency with the EDIT function before the “Upgrade”.

    ETA…LOOK! Here’s the EDIT function after initial post!

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  15. Sleeping Dog says:

    Two-thirds of those who had an answer to that question said he’s a racist/arrogant/unintelligent jerk who “doesn’t represent the country well,” “lies,” and is “unfit to do the job.”

    Some verbatims, just for your enjoyment’s sake:

    “He is a horrible human being”

    “He is incredibly rude”

    “Terrible representative for our country”

    “He’s sexist and racist”

    “He’s an idiot”

    “His arrogance”

    “Slimebag”

    Remember these are the undecided voters.

    https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/undecideds

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  16. Sleeping Dog says:

    @Mister Bluster:

    It is different now. Consistently I don’t get anything till I refresh the page, then all is right. But it is messed up.

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  17. Scott F. says:

    Biden has led every single day, mostly by a substantial margin. Barring cataclysmic events or the most massive voter suppression effort in modern American history, he’s going to win and win big.

    This is quibbling, but I think it’s more Trump is going to lose and lose bigly. It ain’t Biden being a highly attractive, dynamic candidate that’s carrying the day and I say that as someone’s who won’t be holding their nose to vote for him.

    As has been bandied about in these parts, what the country really needs this election is some repudiation. Repudiation of Trump, surely, but as importantly, of Trumpism and the Republican Trump Enabling Machine. So, Trump losing by a historic margin in a highly polarized environment would be a good start, but a couple of high profile GOP Senators need to fall to really make defeat resounding. Senators Collins and Graham losing would do the most for the Everything Trump Touches Dies narrative.

    So, no one should take anything for granted. The defeat must be resounding.

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  18. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Sleeping Dog: What? They weren’t too sure about Biden because he appears to be sane?

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  19. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Sleeping Dog: I have days where refreshing the page works to bring up the edit function. There are other days when I can refresh the page till the cows come home and it won’t come up. Today is one of the other days.

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  20. CSK says:

    @Sleeping Dog:
    Well, they’re certainly not undecided on the issue of whether he’s loathsome.

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  21. @Scott F.:
    “…but by that tweet the attempted suppression doesn’t appear to be working.”
    If only I had you faith, but I’m cynical AF. For every person willing to wait 5 hours in line…how many can’t, or won’t?

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  22. @inhumans99:

    If Trump wins we will get the mother of large sized Covid bailout packages

    Nope…there will be no reason to do that. Then Social Security will be cut, along with Medicare.

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  23. David S. says:

    I appreciate that y’all keep repeating the “this is not 2016” refrain, but it’s also worth noting that, if Trump wins, you’re still right. It’s not 2016: it is so much worse.

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  24. Grewgills says:

    @Daryl and his brother Darryl:
    How many hourly workers, particularly in low worker rights states, can afford to spend 5 or more hours in line. They aren’t getting paid and they aren’t getting the sh!t done that needs doing when they aren’t working. This type of suppression does work and will work, at least to some degree, and in toss up states like GA that can be enough. We just saw it work in GA.

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  25. Sleeping Dog says:

    @CSK:

    At this point we need to accept that anyone who is undecided is lying or being contrarian on purpose.

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  26. JohnSF says:

    @Grewgills:
    As a Brit this five hour wait sh!t just astounds me.

    I don’t think anywhere I have ever lived (urban/suburban/semi-rural) has been more than 15 minutes walk from the local polling station.
    I have only twice, ever, had to queue to vote (and I have voted in every national and local election since the age of 18), and for no more than about five minutes at most.
    The general rule is one polling station per 2,500 electors; some 50,000 total stations.

    The 2019 election waiting times got a lot of publicity for “waits of more than half an hour”!

    We may be a country famed for queuing, but a local Returning officer presiding over five hour queues would probably need to go into protective custody.
    You are the United States of America. Sort it out, guys.

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  27. Kathy says:

    @JohnSF:

    What’s on a ballot in Britain?

    In Mexico, you get three ballots, letter-size, each with party/coalition logos and the candidate’s name under each. One ballot is for president, one for Senator, and one for Deputy (the equivalent of a US Representative). Each ballot goes into a separate urn. If the election coincides with a state and/or local election, you get additional ballots for governor, state legislator, local council, and municipal president. You vote by placing an X over the party/coalition of your choice. It seldom takes more than two minutes.

    As I understand, in the US the ballot includes a myriad candidates for dozens of posts, plus ballot initiatives. That would take a good long while.

    Remember, it’s a republic and not a democracy. So they vote for everyone from dog catcher to president.

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  28. JKB says:

    @Daryl and his brother Darryl:

    Or that is what high and motivated turnout looks like given this is the first day early voting that runs until the 30th.

    Well, apparently, it is a done deal or there will be a lot of polling companies looking for other work in the new year. Me, I’m waiting until the only poll that counts and see no reason not vote and then see how it works out. After all, if Harris/Biden wins, it may be the last time many will be allowed to vote in free elections.

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  29. Bill says:

    @JohnSF:

    The 2019 election waiting times got a lot of publicity for “waits of more than half an hour”!

    I’ll walk to my polling place, probably 3/8ths of a mile, at 7 a.m. If it’s like last time, I’ll be the first person to cast a ballot in my precinct.

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  30. Thomm says:

    @JKB: working in your tight 5 for the next open mike at your local comedy club?

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  31. DeD says:

    @inhumans99:

    If Trump wins we will get the mother of large sized Covid bailout packages as that will get Trump started off on the right foot with not just liberals but his base who desperately need the help.

    On what do you base this dubious premise?

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  32. JohnSF says:

    @Kathy:
    Numbers of US voting options is a point that I had forgotten.

    UK sounds closer to Mexico than the USA.
    UK general election ballot you will get the choice between a number of candidates for MP; candidate numbers vary.

    It may be the case that if a general election is held in May (the commonest time) it can coincide with some local polls.
    The 3 methods of holding elections to local councils are:
    – by whole council (all of the councillors are elected every 4 years)
    – by halves (half of the councillors are elected every 2 years)
    – by thirds (a third of the councillors are elected every year for 3 years, with no elections in the 4th year)
    Frankly gives me a headache if I try to keep track.

    In all case though, the numbers elected a fairly small. MPs’, councillors; I think the theoretical maximum you could have got in the past if ALL had coincided (which i don’t think has EVER happened) would be 8 (if my sums are right) but then only in certain areas where all applied; a lot don’t, i.e. no national assembly in England, no mayors in most areas, most urban areas don’t have parish councils etc.
    Plus EU elections now a thing of the past, obviously.

    Maximum would have been parish, district, county/borough, assembly, mayor, police commissioners, EU, MP.

    There is no equivalent to the swathes of elective office holders, and local referenda, that the US has.

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  33. inhumans99 says:

    @DeD:

    Folks, my post was a bit doofy…I should have just said that I am so looking forward to the election being over with and left it at that.

    As DeD and others have pointed out I am asserting facts that are not in evidence. Put it this way, I will not hold my breath that President Trump does the right thing if re-elected.

    I think that pressure will build on McConnell that may force Trump’s hand if re-elected, McConnell goes on Fox news to complain that lots of folks from Red States are complaining to him that they are not getting any help out of Washington, Trump sees this on Fox and bam…30 seconds later announces on twitter that he is willing to sign a Covid relief bill if the Senate sends him a bill to sign.

    Again, both my earlier post and this one are basically me making a funny that Trump will do what is right to relieve the pain and suffering of his constituents but hey, like I said I made a funny (I am also a bit of an optimist regarding the future of this country so there is a bit of that bleeding into my posts).

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  34. DrDaveT says:

    @Sleeping Dog:

    At this point we need to accept that anyone who is undecided is lying or being contrarian on purpose.

    Nah, this is America. “Ignorant beyond belief” is still an option.

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  35. Michael Reynolds says:

    @DeD:
    Q told him.

    The boy is fully brainwashed. Setting: small load.

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  36. Lounsbury says:

    @JKB:

    After all, if Harris/Biden wins, it may be the last time many will be allowed to vote in free elections.

    Quite, as after they go out and commit felonies and acts of criminal terror, they will get locked away and by your predominant practice, lose their voting rights.

    Of course non-drooling buffoons will move on with their lives and generally not notice.

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  37. Kathy says:

    @JohnSF:

    Numbers of US voting options is a point that I had forgotten.

    At times, I think it’s insane how many government officials are elected: sheriffs, district attorneys, judges, etc.

    As to judges and DAs, I wonder how that skews the justice system at the local/state level. Do they go for more convictions to get reelected, regardless of the law or the merits?

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  38. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    I do look forward to Trump tweeting about how Clinton should be locked up while everyone else (his Base included) just goes huh, wait, what, why is our President still tweeting about Clinton in 2024 about something that happened in 2016,

    I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for the base to wonder that. Even as late as the 199os my mom was still going on about how unfair it was to convict other people of murder considering what Ted Kennedy did on Chappaquiddick Island to that poor girl he got pregnant. To conservatives/Republicans, Clintons are to the current century what Kennedys were to the previous one–a never-ending source of malice and ill will.

    ETA:

    The general rule is one polling station per 2,500 electors; some 50,000 total stations.

    Big difference here–no general rule. The states get to decide how to operate exclusively.

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  39. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @JKB: Dude. Are you really as baked as you present yourself to be here? Yikes! A classmate of mine from elementary school smoked himself into oblivion and sounded more rational than that just did. Put down the bong, man!!!

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  40. Jax says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker: I’m not even sure it’s something as simple as being high….this is much more malignant. He is marinated, steeped, and thrown in the pit with the roast pig in Patriot Media™ sauce.

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  41. Scott O says:

    @JKB: Of course many will not be allowed to vote. Residents of the re-education camps don’t get to vote. They will be allowed to apply for restoration of their voting rights once they’ve completed their education and have been gender reassigned.

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  42. Jax says:

    @inhumans99: I concur on your wish for this election to just get over already. For better or worse.

    Unfortunately, I don’t think Trump winning is gonna get as far as another relief package. If it does, he will double down on states who didn’t declare their fealty to Trump not getting any. Even if we win the Senate, we’re not gonna have enough votes to veto his veto of anything Democrats might produce that passes the House and Senate. Republicans (as they exist now) will happily let all Americans end up on the street to punish a Biden win, just like they did with Obama.

    Imagine, if you will (cue the Bob Ross voice), happy little clouds at a Biden landslide. Even Republican governors will be breathing a sigh of relief, knowing that Biden will not punish them for their lack of loyalty or….whatever they did that day that he found offensive…by withholding necessary PPE/therapeutic drugs/vaccines to keep the people on the front lines in their states safe. Knowing Biden is not going to attack them on Twitter. Breathe in, breathe out….happy little clouds….we might be able to go 2, maybe 3 days without hearing about new drama? Ohhhhhh, yes, gimme some of that “boring President” tea!!!

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  43. JKB says:

    Speculate as you want who his might favor, but the first day of early voting in GA is showing a 40% increase over the previous record first day voting.

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  44. Scott O says:

    @JKB: I’ll give you some free advice. Start donating heavily to Biden/Harris and keep all the receipts. You have a long online record of your unworthiness but if you have documented proof that you have recently become a social justice warrior maybe you can get out in 8 or 9 years instead of 20.

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  45. Jax says:

    @JKB: It’s going to be like that all over the country. People really either hate or love Trump. May the odds be ever in your favor. 😉

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  46. Teve says:

    You know, I have to give senior citizens some credit. They saw the debate, and they’ve seen a dozen debates before, and so they saw what a deranged asshole Trump is, and now they favor Biden by 27 points.

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  47. al Ameda says:

    @JKB:

    After all, if Harris/Biden wins, it may be the last time many will be allowed to vote in free elections.

    And really, why would you care anyway?
    After all, you guys packed the federal courts with unqualified conservative judges, stole one Supreme Court nomination from Democrats, and eventually will have placed 3 Justices on the Court.

    I’d say your work is done.

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  48. mattbernius says:

    @JKB:

    Speculate as you want who his might favor, but the first day of early voting in GA is showing a 40% increase over the previous record first day voting.

    Because the data about where voting has happened is public, we actually don’t have to do too much speculation:

    According to Catalist data, Georgia voters more than doubled their pre-Election Day voting, including mail-in ballots, compared to this time in 2016 — a trend happening in many states because of the pandemic.
    Among the most competitive states tracked by CNN where racial data is available, Georgia currently has the smallest share of ballots cast by White voters. Georgia also has the largest share of ballots cast by Black voters, a key Democratic voting bloc, among these key states.

    Additionally, Black voters have currently cast a greater share of pre-Election Day votes in Georgia this cycle compared to this point in 2016. They currently represent more than 35% of those early ballots, up from 29% four years ago. White voters have cast a smaller share of ballots ahead of the election, dropping from 68% in 2016 to 58% currently in the Peach State.

    Now the real question is the degree to which these trends continue or shift.

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  49. mattbernius says:

    Forgot the source: https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/12/politics/georgia-early-voting-lines-election-2020/index.html

    This is backed up by other reporting, but all of that has been behind paywalls.

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  50. JKB says:

    @mattbernius:

    Sounds horrible, if you dismiss the efforts to appeal to Blacks Trump has made. How successful guys like this have been in their neighborhoods. A lot of formerly middle class Blacks know which party supports those “mostly peaceful protestors” who burned their businesses.

    So it remains to be seen if Blacks are still a given Democrat vote. Many seem to be interested in taking back their power by not being a given voting bloc for any one party.

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  51. mattbernius says:

    @JKB:
    Hmmm, polling suggests otherwise–at least in GA:

    The AJC poll showed only 5% of Black voters said they would support Trump, while 85% back Biden. About 8% of Black voters remain undecided. Eighty-seven percent of Black voters feel that Biden will do a better job of addressing America’s racial disparities.

    https://www.ajc.com/politics/in-battleground-georgia-trump-woos-black-voters/KPXC5IWRYRC2NAOYKUOM4MPYKI/

    (But I know liberal media and skewed polls.)

    Hey, so since you are so confident that Trump is winning, how about we engage in a wager about the outcome of the election? Let’s say $100 to the winner’s charity of choice. I’m willing to bet that Trump will lose both the popular and the electoral vote.

    I’m also happy to have a side bet about his failure to gain any additional support (within MOE) among black voters compared to his 2016 performance.

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  52. mattbernius says:

    Just to be accurate, some polling does show the Trump campaign has made inroads specifically with Black Men.

    Our research has found that in just September, 18% of Black men under 50 say they support Trump. Black men support for Trump has doubled from 2016 to now as a result of his aggressive marketing targeting Black voters. For a president who is regularly called a racist in liberal media, this is money well spent.

    source: https://blavity.com/trumps-strategy-to-win-over-black-men-is-working-heres-how-democrats-need-to-fight-back?category1=opinion&category2=politics

    Also its worth noting that young Black Men have historically constituted one of the “least likely to vote” demographics, so this could be similiar to Sander’s support that never shows up. Only time will tell.

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